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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 198: The Manchinian Candidate
Eddv 10/05/18 4:21:59 PM #187:	Suprak the Stud posted... HashtagSEP posted... That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol I don't think there's that much "democratic" support there in that sense. Like, I would be surprised in Heitkamp gained in the polls now since the same thing could be argued there. Which is a shame because I quite liked Heitkamp and we're never going to get another ND democrat in the Senate. She made the right choice on Kavanaugh in spite of the political advantages that voting yes would have, which is admirable. 2012 wasn't exactly another lifetime, I do think things will eventually calm back down. Nate Silvers analysis on this was pretty spot on - a vote Yes after how much she spoke on her opposition to him likely would have played a cravenly politically motivated move and would have been the "safe" play in a race that she is losing , at best, by 8 points in. This is a move that stays true to herself (and her brand) and is definitely the higher variance move which is the smart play because even though it probably won't work its better than playing conservative and losing by 8 pts anyway. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06 <cite>Eddv posted [p:910019416] in Politics C... [t:77069861]...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>HashtagSEP posted...</cite> <quote>That said, Manchin may have just screwed himself over All the local ads are pushing how Trump supports/endorses his opponent. So if he loses Democrat support at all... lol</quote> I don't think there's that much "democratic" support there in that sense. Like, I would be surprised in Heitkamp gained in the polls now since the same thing could be argued there. Which is a shame because I quite liked Heitkamp and we're never going to get another ND democrat in the Senate. She made the right choice on Kavanaugh in spite of the political advantages that voting yes would have, which is admirable.</quote> 2012 wasn't exactly another lifetime, I do think things will eventually calm back down. Nate Silvers analysis on this was pretty spot on - a vote Yes after how much she spoke on her opposition to him likely would have played a cravenly politically motivated move and would have been the "safe" play in a race that she is losing , at best, by 8 points in. This is a move that stays true to herself (and her brand) and is definitely the higher variance move which is the smart play because even though it probably won't work its better than playing conservative and losing by 8 pts anyway. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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