LogFAQs > #910009716

Balrog0 posted...

So I'm not sure what your point is in saying this. Do you want to elaborate?

That the gains made by Republican enthusiasm in these polls are in absolute terms, but whatever benefit this may have for the GOP is dampened if not erased by the way in which Kavanaugh's presence motivates Democrats/alienates moderates. The full data is more complicated than the "this is great for Republicans narrative"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

But one hint comes from polls that publish both registered- and likely-voter results; the difference between these numbers is a good measure of the enthusiasm gap or turnout gap. Currently, were showing that likely voter polls are only about 0.4 percentage better for Republicans than registered-voter polls. Thats much smaller than the typical gap between likely- and registered-voter polls, which usually favors Republicans by anywhere from 1 to 6 percentage points in midterm years, reflecting that Democrats tend to rely on minority and young voters who dont always turn out at the midterms. It is, however, slightly improved for Republicans from the numbers we were seeing earlier this year, when there wasnt any gap at all on average between registered- and likely-voter polls. To complicate matters, Republicans are generally doing worse in district-level polls than youd expect them to do in generic ballot polls, even though district polls are almost always conducted among likely voters. One possibility is that Kavanaugh is helping with Republican base turnout, but also hurting the GOP among swing voters with a high propensity to turn out, such as suburban women.

Overall, Im inclined to conclude theres actually something there for Republicans that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a month ago). But Im also wary of the idea that this is necessarily a turning point, since it wouldnt take much a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data thats consistent with a particular narrative.

Finally, it should go without saying that this is still a dynamic situation, and it doesnt necessarily follow that the party that wins the battle over Kavanaugh will benefit electorally. The opposite could prove true. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed. Whichever party doesnt get its way on Kavanaugh will have more reason to feel aggrieved and perhaps more motivation to turn out to vote.

---

kin to all that throbs