LogFAQs > #904423520

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Topic	Can someone ELI5: The Birthday Paradox
Tmaster148 07/03/18 1:35:01 PM #14:	Jerry_Hellyeah posted... clearaflagrantj posted... Jerry_Hellyeah posted... Its 50-50. The odds of you being correct dont just magically lock in when you make your choice. It really doesnt fucking matter that it was 1/3 when you first picked. As soon as one choice is revealed to be a losing one, there is a 50-50 chance befween the remaining two choices. The host has more information than you and knows that the door he removes is a loser. If the host didn't have any information, it would stay as 33/33/33 (i.e. he could have removed the winning door) But since he knows he is picking one of two loser doors, the odds become 33/66. Please remove your emotion from the problem and evaluate it with a rational mind. Is it not quite irrational to think your 1 in 3 chance stays the same even after a losing selection is removed? Except the host will never remove the winning door. Because of this is why your odds are higher switching. --- https://imgur.com/BBcZDLJ <cite>Tmaster148 posted [p:904423520] in Can someon... [t:76773878]...</cite> <quote><cite>Jerry_Hellyeah posted...</cite> <quote><cite>clearaflagrantj posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Jerry_Hellyeah posted...</cite> <quote>Its 50-50. The odds of you being correct dont just magically lock in when you make your choice. It really doesnt fucking matter that it was 1/3 when you first picked. As soon as one choice is revealed to be a losing one, there is a 50-50 chance befween the remaining two choices.</quote> The host has more information than you and knows that the door he removes is a loser. If the host didn't have any information, it would stay as 33/33/33 (i.e. he could have removed the winning door) But since he knows he is picking one of two loser doors, the odds become 33/66. Please remove your emotion from the problem and evaluate it with a rational mind.</quote> Is it not quite irrational to think your 1 in 3 chance stays the same even after a losing selection is removed?</quote> Except the host will never remove the winning door. Because of this is why your odds are higher switching. --- https://imgur.com/BBcZDLJ</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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