LogFAQs > #903513000

alabama was a weird case where Moore was a bad candidate on the outset. That seat was +30 Rep. The general, simplified consensus I've seen is

-Moore cut 10% by being terrible pre-scandal

-Anti-trump atmosphere weakened Reps 10%

-Scandal cut that last 10% off and let Jones narrowly win

Anti-Trump atmosphere present in these elections are a common element that have Dems winning or at least strongly contesting unlikely races. Polling in AL had Moore doing terribly by the seat's standards pre-scandal, for example, but by that definition, you'd need every seat to

-Have a bad candidate

-Have a scandal hit them

...If we're treating anti-Trump atmosphere as a default, which is kind of is judging by his poor approval numbers. This will probably make TN competitive by having a popular Dem candidate, but it's not going to help a newbie beat an incumbent like Satan AKA Ted Cruz unless Ted Cruz is caught murdering people
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