LogFAQs > #903512427

oh, and my perspective on the middterms is -

-Dems handily take House

-Dems handily lose Senate

they have overperformed in most (all?) of the SEs since 2016 and will probably be able to defend a ton of seats but likely take none except maybe TN. I've posted about this on 261 but it would take a real, concentrated backlash to actually give them the Senate because they have to defend so many red state seats.

Ones like Manchin are free but FL, IN, ND, MT are all going to be drawn out and hard and dems are better off shooting for a TN flip as insurance in case IN/ND go wrong. A stronger Dem party might be able to shoot for TX/MS but they'd be unwise to put money/effort there when they can feasibly defend and worry about taking it back in 2020 when they might have seeded even more dislike against the Republican party

part of this depends on what you even consider to be a "blue wave". Investors have the same perspective as I do, going to places like PI, where Dems winning the house seems likely but taking the Senate is about as much of a longshot as Trump's victory was in 2016. It can happen, but I wouldn't bet on the unlikely all the time, unless something serious happens to the Trump admin like charges against Jr./Kushner, economic problems caused by premiums rising, or something drastic happening out of the current immigration issue that causes a lot of independents to get angry

Or War with Iran but I doubt that's happening
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