LogFAQs > #903258103

darkknight109 posted...

And what do you think this is? Do you seriously not see the game being played here?

I'm glad you're here to see it for all of us being that youre very close to Kim Jung Un and seem to know exactly what hes thinking.

darkknight109 posted...

Ask yourself this: why is North Korea doing this? Kim Jong Un has spent the better part of the last decade pouring tonnes of resources into developing nuclear weapons. He's conducted nuclear tests and rocket launches in flagrant violation of previous agreements. He's resisted every sanction thrown at him and even managed to alienate China, North Korea's one real ally. He's rebuffed all previous offers at negotiation, saying that nuclear arms are North Korea's birthright.

Then, in January, he suddenly turns around and says "Just kidding! We'll totally get rid of our nukes, let's have a sit-down chat, shall we?"

The question is why. Why would Kim, after a decade of belligerence and intransigence, suddenly be willing to put on a friendly face and negotiate? It's not like he was forced into it; his regime isn't facing any existential threats, nor had Trump taken an appreciably different tack with him than previous presidents (overly bellicose rhetoric aside), so nothing in that area has changed.

Well, as you said, he has claimed numerous times in the past that hes ready to disarm. But suddenly this time you think it means he's got what he needs to play ball with major world powers? Ha not a chance.

darkknight109 posted...

And it worked. Trump took the bait and, in recognition of the successful summit, China has said they're dropping all their sanctions. Kim got the relief he needed for his country. He'll milk this along for as much as he can (and if he can extract concessions from China and Russia for getting the Americans off of the peninsula, he'll do so) but he has absolutely no reason to give up his nuclear ambitions. After all, consider that America was helping support the overthrow of multiple dictators that gave up their nuclear ambitions (Hussein, Gadaffi) and that Trump just demonstrated that the US is willing to tear up nuclear arms control agreements, entered into in good faith and to which all parties are adhering, simply because the current president doesn't like it. A nuclear agreement with America means nothing these days and Kim would be a fool to trust in it.

This back and forth with sanctions is nothing new either. Dont know why you wanna act like this is all a first with trump on power. darkknight109 posted...

At the cost of basically ceding increasingly dwindling influence in east Asia to China, sure.

Our influence over there is sealed for the distant future because of our economic link with China. That's not going away any time soon.

darkknight109 posted...

And you're not concerned about the military reps who have sounded alarm bells about lack of operational readiness given that the joint military exercises are being halted?

Pardon me for doubting your military knowledge, but I trust their word over yours.

Links?
darkknight109 posted...

You also left out "an end to sanctions", which is North Korea's far bigger win here.

You don't think it was coincidence that Kim met twice with the Chinese President just before his meeting with Trump, do you?

As I said, this isn't the first "end" of sanctions.

Very well thought out post though. Pretty much all conjecture but still well thought out