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| Topic | If you have a 1/100 chance to draw a card and don't draw it in 99 tries |
| Tmk 02/03/18 11:01:06 AM #29: | If there's a deck of 100 cards and you need to draw one specific card in it, and the deck is reshuffled every draw, and you failed to draw the card 99 times, there's a 1% chance you draw the card on your 100th attempt. Additionally, the compound probability of failing to draw that card 100 times in a row is 36.6%. Failing to draw it 200 times in a row would be 13.3%. 300 times in a row, 4.9%. Meaning it's more likely to fail to draw that card 300 times in a row, than to draw it on your first try. Compound probability: a fun way to figure out ahead of time how fucked you mathematically are before you start farming some rare bullshit in a game. --- I am snazzier, hot, hot rant. Warily slight as. Croak rush, OK? Weirder, almighty make out. ::) ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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