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TopicMagic: the Gathering Topic: Beware the Chupacabra
Sceptilesolar
01/30/18 1:55:22 PM
#187:


Thinking about the artifact matters question again, my issue with it is basically that I think the answers might be badly chosen. The structure of the problem is fundamentally that there are five answers that all have a hidden probability to them and that you have to determine which one has the greatest. I think that to make that work, you'd either want it so one answer will happen 100% of the time and the others have less than 100%, or you'd want four answers to happen 0% of the time and the other to have more than 0%.

But I don't think either applies here. You end up having to estimate kind of off the cuff and hope you share the questioner's estimation. If you're choosing between like 80% and 50% and 30% it's kind of hard to make those distinctions unless your thought process is very close to the questioner's.

So either the question is really high-level, there's something I missed, or it was stupid.
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