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Topic	Condoms only working 97% of the time seems like a low ball
Sahuagin 09/24/17 11:26:51 PM #34:	k after simulating it, I should have known better. the highest chance is for it to happen instantly, with steadily less chance after that. not sure the 34th event has any significance whatsoever, but I still sort of feel like it must. graph of 100,000 attempts, saving how many tries it took to 'win' a 3% chance. (bottom scale is 1-100 tries with anything beyond that ignored). (not surprisingly there was about a 3,000/100,000 chance for it to occur on the first try.) now I'm thinking, it must be the sum. not, "what is the chance that it happened AT this point", but "what is the chance that it happened UP TO THIS point". --- *The truth basks in scrutiny.* http://i.imgur.com/GMouTGs.jpg http://projecteuler.net/profile/Sahuagin.png <cite>Sahuagin posted [p:887236904] in Condoms on... [t:75807730]...</cite> <quote>k after simulating it, I should have known better. the highest chance is for it to happen instantly, with steadily less chance after that. not sure the 34th event has any significance whatsoever, but I still sort of feel like it must. graph of 100,000 attempts, saving how many tries it took to 'win' a 3% chance. (bottom scale is 1-100 tries with anything beyond that ignored). (not surprisingly there was about a 3,000/100,000 chance for it to occur on the first try.) now I'm thinking, it must be the sum. not, "what is the chance that it happened AT this point", but "what is the chance that it happened UP TO THIS point". --- The truth basks in scrutiny. http://i.imgur.com/GMouTGs.jpg http://projecteuler.net/profile/Sahuagin.png</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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