LogFAQs > #887236303

Sahuagin posted...

Dash_Harber posted...

the idea that 97% means that you will always get 3 out of 100 is called the 'gambler's fallacy'. The probability resets each time. You don't get more likely to 'win' after a string of losses.

yeah, each event in isolation is strictly 97% (I'm just assuming that number is not made up of course which it probably is).

I'm not sure what I said is quite right but I don't know enough about it.

I want to say something like there's a tendency for it to be around the 34th event, spread like a bell curve around that point, with the first event as likely as the ~68th... but that can't be right.

it's possible the bell curve is spread between the first event and the 34th, so the tendency is for it to occur *on the way* to the 34th event. I have no idea though. almost want to try simulating it now and see what I get.

Yeah, I think you are right. I was just pointing out that it is still 'on average, it would take until your 34th try' and not 'your chances increase at the 34th try'. Also, I was directing it at the original post you quoted, and how he said that number 97 should guarantee pregnancy.