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| Topic | Condoms only working 97% of the time seems like a low ball |
| Sahuagin 09/24/17 11:12:13 PM #32: | Dash_Harber posted... the idea that 97% means that you will always get 3 out of 100 is called the 'gambler's fallacy'. The probability resets each time. You don't get more likely to 'win' after a string of losses. yeah, each event in isolation is strictly 97% (I'm just assuming that number is not made up of course which it probably is). I'm not sure what I said is quite right but I don't know enough about it. I want to say something like there's a tendency for it to be around the 34th event, spread like a bell curve around that point, with the first event as likely as the ~68th... but that can't be right. it's possible the bell curve is spread between the first event and the 34th, so the tendency is for it to occur *on the way* to the 34th event. I have no idea though. almost want to try simulating it now and see what I get. --- The truth basks in scrutiny. http://i.imgur.com/GMouTGs.jpg http://projecteuler.net/profile/Sahuagin.png ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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