LogFAQs > #977197297

SuperSaiyanTien posted...

Can I ask why you believe that?

Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

In fact, we've seen previous Republican (unpopular) presidents get a huge jump during times of war I.E. see Bush in 2000 vs. Bush 2004. As messed up as it is, the war in Israel/Palestine might cause a surge of Independents to vote Republican.

I just don't think it's as cut/dry as some would want.

Because:

1) We aren't in a war, which traditionally sees incumbent success due to drawing in BOTH parties to vote for a steady, stable leader in order to project strength,and,

2) Trump is unlike any prior candidate. He has way too much press. There isn't a single person in this country who doesn't know, vividly, who he is and what he's all about. This has two effects. One, it shrinks what could be considered the TRUE "independent" vote; they've LONG since decided whether they're behind Trump or not. And 2) it means that Trump's popularity has a ceiling. I don't think he can grow any bigger than he already has (*ba dum tiss*). Think about it: who honestly is voting for Trump in 2024 who didn't already vote for him in 2020? Yeah, he pulled out 11 million new people thar year, but can he honestly pull that again? Where are they gonna come from? The reality is, Trump's base can only shrink, and while his true cultists are more riled than ever, it's inevitable that everything that's gone down with him from 1/6 onward has shaken off at least SOME of that base; certainly more than they've gotten in fresh recruits.