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TopicThe chance of Trump winning another term is very real
FighterMcWar
08/03/23 9:13:52 AM
#21:


Zanzenburger posted...
It looks like the article's main evidence for their claim is this statement:

To put that in perspective, Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNNs standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign. Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019. Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.

The problem with this assertion is that the article fails to mention the change in polling methodologies between 2016 and 2023. With several polling groups being extremely left-biased, resulting in some of the snafus in the 2016 election (and to a lesser extent the 2020 election), many of them have corrected themselves to account for the "hidden" Trump support that wasn't being weighed properly. So naturally, polls will have a heavier Republican lean than before.

All this means is that we may see less extreme differences between polls that, say, predict Blue +10 and end up being Red +3 (in theory). I'm not surprised we are seeing closer polls now.

Additionally, as the article states, general election polling right now is meaningless. There is no predictive validity. While we can certainly have a discussion, this feels like clickbait.
It has also worked the other way. The GOP underperformed polls since correction, a bigger take away is that the polls were not terribly off for most Republicans except for Trump...because Americans are apparently just suckers for big personalities.

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