LogFAQs > #973154915

PLAYER_0 posted...

If we were still in a VGMC 15 world where people only spent 37% on locks, this year would lock 123 songs and 16 would've only locked 189 songs!

To be precise, 15 had 1032/1765 = 37.3% - how about this year? We went from 79 to 80 users since my post, so that's...750/2000 = 37.5%, wow! Basically identical to 15, and with round numbers too.

PLAYER_0 posted...

Let's say we end with 80 users and 60% efficiency - that yields 4.7 votes per bracket slot! It's the effect of cutting 35 votes to 25. But we're coming off a year of full locks, and the lock rush will set up some 5s and 4s, *and* people are probably better at organizing 25 votes than 35. Assume 85 users and 70% efficiency - that's a more conservative 5.8 votes per bracket slot.

Now that we have 125*6 votes locked up, what's the new projection? I'm using VGMC 14 as a reference, where we locked 132 songs and each user got 25 votes - I do have to make an adjustment to designate the top 256 as bracket songs, rather than 192. That yields an overall efficiency of 1181/1650 = 72%, quite a bit higher than 15's 56%! I'm already being lenient though, because taking 256 songs also brought the cutoff to 2/1.

Let's say 75% for this year but remove the efficiency of locked votes: 0.75*2000-125*6 = 750. Across 131 slots, that's an average of 5.7 votes - basically equal to my previous conservative projection.

But hey, some optimism is nice too! With a lower estimate of 70%, we get a projected 4.96 votes per slot. That would mean like, five 4/4 songs making it in.

We didn't lock all 128 slots, so people could be less panicky this year! Or less convinced that locks for 6 votes are a good deal. With our remaining votes perfectly coordinated (and begrudgingly compromised), we could push the cutoff as high as 9.5...or as low as 3.96 where it currently sits. As always, the power is in your hands!