LogFAQs > #971815380

TaylorHeinicke posted...

the government will literally never admit it because it's too politically damaging to do so.

we've been in one since Q2 2022 by definition, but nobody would admit it

Technically no, by definition we were in a recession in Q1-Q2, when GDP was negative for back to back quarters. Since then GDP has been positive.

And literally no one cares about the technical definition, only the colloquial definition which is just a bad run for the economy. Businesses are still doing well, unemployment is near all-time lows, lowest its been in 50+ years. Wage inflation is high, although real wages are still negative. Fed injected alot of money into the economy but those savings are only slowly going down. All of the drivers of inflation are still there. Ive been telling you guys for over 6 months now its a matter of time. Its just going to happen slower than what most people are saying. Interest rates starting rising in early 2022 and even then they were ultra low for most of 2022, as they were cranking it up. You don't even see the effects of these for years. When businesses have to refinance or obtain new capital, now they are fucked. We STILL have not seen the effect of that. All we've seen is the stock market try to price that in in q3-4 2022 and clearly they undershot. People think inflation will continue to go down and all is good and well. Nope, all the drivers of inflation still exist. And on top of that, high inflation = people spend more now than later => increased inflation. 0 inflation = no incentive to spend now. Thats why 2% is the target. Its a slipper slope on either side. These layoffs that were occuring q3-4 and now q1 are simply businesses trying to shed wait in anticipation of a bad recession.

It will come, most likely 2024-25. Something is going to crash, just a matter of time.