LogFAQs > #969163222

Dan_Haren- posted...

I lost $1000 pop on sqqq over the last few weeks and sold on Monday. I rebought today and I've already made about $450 back.

Sold today after making back about $700 in total, up like 14% in less than 2 days.

theAteam posted...

The problem is rate increases take months to work their way into the economy so they wont know if they went too far or not far enough for a long time. They definitely dont want to go too far and drive the country into a deep recession so they have more incentive to slow down and see what happens. If things are still too hot by next spring they can continue raising.

While thats very true, I think the thinking of most people is that inflation has already peaked and will inevitably go down, the fed will stop hiking, we'll have a soft landing then things will carry on. In reality, all that would do is keep inflation high and the fed would at most do a pause before possibly hiking again, no way they truly pivot and reverse if inflation hangs out in the 6-8% range. And like I said, real estate is coming down, energy is manipulated to come down by tapping SPR, nothign else is showing any signs of stopping. Fundamentally speaking, as wages and employment flourish, it will inevitably drive up prices. And our SPR are already the lowest they've been in 40 years and we've been tapping into them since spring. Its just a bad cycle we're on with oil.

Is there a way to get inflation <2% without stopping wage growth and causing unemployment? Probably not. And the Fed has already told us multiple times that there will be suffering but they don't gaf cuz thats what it takes to control inflation.