LogFAQs > #963008983

I had anticopated that half of Ukraine would be conquered in a day, and on the next day, Zelenskyy is deposed and a Lukashenko-like puppet installed. Cue Russia then leering at the west for its weakness and eyeing another country to swallow up into his empire. Heck, I was 100% certain he'd be taking Moldova before the weekend.

But now, on the fourth day, at the end of the week, Russia's military is plagued by fuel and ammo shortages, they've failed to achieve aerial superiority, their assaults are disorganized and frequently thwarted, casualties number in the thousands, hundreds of vehicles have been destroyed, and all the major cities remain in Ukrainian hands. In the eyes of the world, Russia's practically overnight turned from an dangerous military power to a shaky paper tiger pariah state that's to be shunned and isolated, with even its allies calling Russia out or staying quiet.

There's just no feasible way Putin can spin this war with Ukraine and global humiliation into a victory. His army miltiary do it, and his PR machine can't do it. He's already lost, and any chance to save face is by now long gone. It's just a question of how far he'll double down and how much men and material he's willing to chuck at Ukraine to get his ever fleeting victory before he'll throw down the towel.
And that is what worries me. Not that he finally accepts that he's lost, but what he'll do as a "fuck you" as he flips the proverbial chess board.

Now I'm not saying he'll start flinging nukes like confetti, or strike a western target he despises the most. It's not a button on his desk that separates cozy today and bottlecap currency tomorrow. Anyone down the chain from the order to the launch can choose not to follow through with it. Most of all, Putin's oligarch buddies will certainly get rid of him to ensure their wealth won't be destroyed in a nuclear holocaust.

However, Putin can do a lot with that aren't nukes. He could be mad enough to start massive terror bombings on Ukraine's population centers, maybe even use chemical and biological weapons.
A nuclear strike wille ensure MAD; everything else, won't.