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Topic	Help me understand your reasoning in solving the following easy problem
jramirez23 04/06/17 1:36:31 AM #90:	Golden Road posted... OK, it's not a great way to explain myself after all =P I'll go back to this: Ann, Courtney Heidi, Bradley Gary, Emily Yes, only one of these three families has 2 girls, while two of them have a boy and a girl. But they're not equally likely to be chosen. If you choose Ann or Courtney, then you have the family with two sisters. If you choose Heidi or Emily, you have a family with a brother and sister. You're twice as likely to choose the girl-girl family, which offsets having only half as many girl-girl families. It's very interesting how you interpret the problem. I'm trying to restate what you're thinking in terms of "cheating in a gameshow." The kids are behind a door and you peek and see one of them is a girl. I guess if there are actually two girls in the family, then it's more likely for you to realize one is a girl. But if you argue that, and even give them names, you gotta consider all outcomes before you "peek" and see one of them is a girl. This is a list of how the kids could be standing behind the door. GG GB BG BB Alice Clara (GG) Clara Alice (GG) Alice Bobby (GB) Bobby Alice (BG) Alex Bobby (BB) Bobby Alex (BB) So now when you "cheat" and realize one of them is a girl, it seems like GG outcome is 50% (2/4) likely, but that's not the answer to the problem in my opinion, because the outcome Alice and Clara is identical to Clara and Alice, no? --- It's tough being an economist. How would you like to go through life pretending like you know what M2 means? <cite>jramirez23 posted [p:876636699] in Help me un... [t:75200924]...</cite> <quote><cite>Golden Road posted...</cite> <quote>OK, it's not a great way to explain myself after all =P I'll go back to this: Ann, Courtney Heidi, Bradley Gary, Emily Yes, only one of these three families has 2 girls, while two of them have a boy and a girl. But they're not equally likely to be chosen. If you choose Ann or Courtney, then you have the family with two sisters. If you choose Heidi or Emily, you have a family with a brother and sister. You're twice as likely to choose the girl-girl family, which offsets having only half as many girl-girl families.</quote> It's very interesting how you interpret the problem. I'm trying to restate what you're thinking in terms of "cheating in a gameshow." The kids are behind a door and you peek and see one of them is a girl. I guess if there are actually two girls in the family, then it's more likely for you to realize one is a girl. But if you argue that, and even give them names, you gotta consider all outcomes before you "peek" and see one of them is a girl. This is a list of how the kids could be standing behind the door. GG GB BG BB Alice Clara (GG) Clara Alice (GG) Alice Bobby (GB) Bobby Alice (BG) Alex Bobby (BB) Bobby Alex (BB) So now when you "cheat" and realize one of them is a girl, it seems like GG outcome is 50% (2/4) likely, but that's not the answer to the problem in my opinion, because the outcome Alice and Clara is identical to Clara and Alice, no? --- It's tough being an economist. How would you like to go through life pretending like you know what M2 means?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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