LogFAQs > #980161100

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Yes, I would love to see that, actually.

k

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1785003259351978030

But like also you're picking just that Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll and staking everything on that. Morning Consult itself says today they're tied per their website and Biden is doing better now than Super Tuesday. Fuck, that MC/Bloomberg poll has Trump doing better than Trump's internal polls in places like Arizona.

We've had this discussion like literally 9 times the past 9 months but while we're just now starting to creep into the period where polling has historically been better than throwing darts at the wall (though I say again it gets better around the conventions which are still months off) I open up 538 and still get the feeling we're seeing the same 2022 tactics where R-leaning pollsters flood the zone with garbage polls to distort the averages and lay the groundwork for the media to talk about red waves and shit like "why are Dems losing women/black/Hispanic/young voters? is there a nostalgia for maga?" Like these polls with crosstabs where the black vote has shifted to Trump in a demographic realignment bigger than anything since the Civil Rights Movement? I'm supposed to just nod and accept shit like that non-critically? Something is broken here.

Like I'm looking at Michigan on 538 and it has Trump leading the average. I'll note MI is the one place your chosen poll has Biden up. So why is this? Because some group, ranked 82nd on their rating lists dropped a Trump+15 MI poll in there. I'm going to assume even the most doomer take isn't having Biden lose MI by 15 points. (btdubs morning consult is at 116th)

I don't really want to go all poll truther or anything, but polls have just been pretty fucking wack lately. Clearly it started back in 2016 when they missed out on how Trump turned out MAGA voters but it feels like they've just been adrift the past few years and don't know how to correct for this. Ever since 2022 Dems have basically outperformed the polls by a fair margin and overperformed the political landscape of wherever they're running, often by double digits. So at this point I'm pretty skeptical of polls regardless of what they're saying, even the Biden up ones.

The closest thing we have to a pattern we can look to in the actual elections is that Dems have been fucking fired up since Dobbs and that it has not slowed down regardless of polls suggesting otherwise in those races.

I do think Trump can win this election, don't get me wrong. But if I had to guess I still would favor Biden. But Trump's chances are not nothing and that should motivate people to ensure they get out and vote.