LogFAQs > #980106171

nekrodev posted...

Statistically, so is being upset at people who aren't voting in most states.

I'm only popping up cuz this is basically a continuation of stuff from the other thread from yesterday, but, I still can't believe this doesn't make sense to people. If you're in a solid red or solid blue state, which is most of the states, it's basically a statistical impossibility that your vote could matter.

Again, just using my state - which is solid red, up 10-15% on average for Republicans for the last 50+ years. You would need to sway 300k+ Republicans and Independents to switch, or convince at least that many NEW voters to vote Dem. That's literally not going to happen w/o major demographic shifts (ie old people dying).

I'll take being called lazy or apathetic or whatever, but to act like we are somehow actively contributing negatively is just wrong and silly.

It doesn't affect THIS election but it affects FUTURE elections and I'll explain why. The political parties dedicate campaign financing to different states based on the outlook or probability it will make a difference. Over time, if a state shifts colors a bit, the party will dedicate more funds there to continue that push. So slowly over time even a red state (for example, Georgia from years ago) can eventually become less red. Then purple, then even blue. But that only matters if the parties see that votes in the state are changing. So while you may not flip one individual election, it will help "shift" the perception of the state and allow future people in the state more confidence to vote the different way. Your vote IS being counted and people ARE paying attention to the numbers. But if they see the same ratios all the time, then yeah they won't change strategy. If they see numbers shift 2%, 5%, 8% election over election, you bet your ass they will run more door to door campaigns and commercials in a shifting state.

Do not try to use game theory to rationalize not voting. Just vote for the candidate you think would be better and leave it at that. That is how democracy is designed to function - with an assumption that many, many people participate. When people stop participating, that's when you get ruling fringe groups and other crazy shit that harms the country.