LogFAQs > #979782504

Arsenal were 5 points off the title last season and only took 13 points from a possible 27 to finish the season (including losing 3 out of their final 6 games). Villa were 10 points off 4th.

Arsenal last year were far better than anyone expected so ended up far closer to title contenders than Villa did to CL contenders

Over the last 4 seasons

4th: 71, 71, 67, 66
5th: 67, 69, 66, 62

Whoever finishes 4th/5th will outdo the points total for those finishes in recent years. There is no 'giving it away'

And let's be realistic, it's going to be Spurs/Villa in some order at 4th and 5th. Man Utd have no shot given they have to win out (zero chance) and hope both those teams drop a lot of points. Utd would only have 72 points and a far inferior GD even in the highly unrealistic scenario they win 8 in a row (which would involve beating Liverpool and Arsenal somehow). Utd will be lucky to get to 66 points