so, I have a perfect battle bracket. I have a tiebreaker of like 78000, decent but not good enough to win a tiebreaker with a dozen people. prizes start to really suck after third place and honestly, who cares about winning 10 or 20 bucks. I'd probably never even spend it. I make that much money in an hour or less.
so it seems like the thing to do is either to go for a 1% pick or a 5% pick that was unexpected. 55-59% seems like the obvious pick for me, but I figure that's too easy. I'll end up in like 12th place or something. I go back and forth between a 1% pick and a 5% pick of 50-54%. god knows nobody is going to pick that, and I like the chances of Link slightly underperforming with a 5% range over trying to win the lottery. so I go for the 50-54%.
and for like ten minutes, I'm brilliant. Mario's beating Link early on, Link's struggling to take a lead and Mario freezes him at 48%. I've got a chance here!
59% update. oof. by the end of the hour, my chances are dead.
it's really too bad I didn't pick what I actually thought was going to happen, which is my Oracle pick of Link at 57%.
--
xyzzy