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TopicRivalry Rumble Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Kotetsu534
12/19/11 6:22:00 PM
#324:


(1) Mario/Bowser vs. (1) Link/Ganondorf

(R1) Mario/Bowser: 85.38% vs. Earthworm Jim/Queen Slug-for-a-Butt
(R2) Mario/Bowser: 80.47% vs. Ike/Black Knight
(R3) Mario/Bowser: 70.58% vs. Sonic/Dr. Robotnik
(R4) Mario/Bowser: 66.66% vs. Mega Man X/Zero
(R5) Mario/Bowser: 55.64% vs. Pokemon Trainer Red/Pokemon Trainer Blue

(R1) Link/Ganondorf: 85.30% vs. Arthas/Illidan
(R2) Link/Ganondorf: 83.69% vs. Amaterasu/Orochi
(R3) Link/Ganondorf: 75.26% vs. Mega Man/Wily
(R4) Link/Ganondorf: 77.60% vs. Alucard/Dracula
(R5) Link/Ganondorf: 58.26% vs. Cloud Strife/Sephiroth

On a straight projection, setting the Trainers and Cloud/Seph equal, Link/Ganon should win with 53% of the vote. We all know that is unlikely to happen - Link has SFF'd Mario every other time they've faced off, and even if Mario/Bowser are closer than Mario on his own, that should still happen here. Assuming 8-9 points of SFF, Link/Ganon should get into the low 60s, but I have a feeling Mario/Bowser are going to hold up better than expected. The simple closeness in strength of the two rivalries compared to the two characters might make SFF a bit less extreme, and sometimes weird things happen in finals. Regardless, this is going to be a boring end to a bad contest.

I'm not sure yet what I'll do with my perfect battle bracket, but I know I'll either be going "All on Straight Pick" or "All on 55.00-59.99".

Link vs. Ganondorf with 59.95% of the vote.

--
Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
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