Good analysis. I think Tidus/Jecht should at least be given a 5% chance of victory, though, if you believe they'll berak 40%.
Maybe, but I just can't see Tidus/Jecht winning that one. Tidus/Jecht isn't weak, so it won't be a complete blowout, but The Bosses should win that. The closeness off a match is not always directly related to my expected result. Last year I would have give Auron>Squall a 20% chance of happening, at most, but I still would have predicted no more than 52-48 for Squall.
East Division
Match 37:
Red/Blue vs Luigi/Waluigi
This match is a really tough one. Luigi would beat Red in a 1-on-1. However, here you have Waluigi who could realistically drag Luigi down quite a bit. On the other hand, people seem to really like the Red/Blue rivalry. How this match turns out will largely depend on how the voters cast their vote. If they just vote for their favorite character, Luigi/Waluigi wins this. But if they really vote on the rivalries, Red/Blue will take this.
I'm picking Red/Blue here, but without confidence.
Upset-potential: 50%
Oracle: Red/Blue with 51%
Match 38:
Ryu/Ken vs Fox/Wolf
Fox/Wolf aren't weak, but the Street Fighters should be comfortable ahead of them.
Upset-potential: 0%
Oracle: Ryu/Ken with 60%
Southeast Division
Match 39:
Samus/Ridley vs Kefka/Terra
Noble Niner crushes low-midcarder. Obvious.
Upset-potential: 0%
Oracle: Samus/Ridley with 66%
Match 40:
Chris/Wesker vs. Big Boss/The Boss
A good thing about this rivalry contest, is that we are basically guaranteed Naked Snake pics. I would have picked Tidus/Jecht over Chris/Wesker, although barely. The Bosses should win this match just as easily as the previous one.
Upset-potential: 0%
Big/Boss with 60%
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Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest.