I think that disagreeing on definitions isn't... fruitful. What I need to be careful of is that I'll accidentally use my definition instead of yours. They're just words, why get hung up about words when they're just vehicles for meaning?
The I suppose what I should say is that the closer the predicted probability is to the actual probability, the more accurate it is. The 50% estimate is truthful only in that it's stating that the odds of one of two equally likely, mutually exclusive events happening is 50%. I'm not sure how to say it better. I suppose there isn't multiple levels of truthfulness like I stated, more that each detail added has its own truth value, and adding more details that are true improves accuracy. Or something like that.
Ohhh I see where the point of confusion is.
I don't believe there's such a thing as an inherently probabilistic thing in the universe. I believe that probabilities are a measure of your uncertainty. So there's no such thing as a random event, only events we find random because nothing we know can help us predict it.
A more precise statement i.e. a statement with more levels of detail in it is "better" because you concentrate more of your probability in a narrow conceptspace, which represents less uncertainty.
The 50% estimate is truthful only in that it's stating that the odds of one of two equally likely, mutually exclusive events happening is 50%.
This is called the maximum entropy distribution by the way; basically there are n options and you assign them 1/n chance of happening. It means that you have absolutely zero information about the thing you're trying to predict. Your entropy goes DOWN as you acquire more information.
red sox 777 posted...
Newbie: you overrate KC. It's an interesting math idea, but not as wonderful a tool as you have been asserting.
Good thing you've specified how and why so that I can find out instead of vaguely implying that it's insufficient in other vague and undefined ways so that we can talk about it and we don't waste five posts dragging it out of you.
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You're messing with me! You're messing with me, aren't you!?
You're making fun of me, aren't you!? Aren't you!? You definitely are! I'll murder you!