Lurker > TomNook

PMarth2002 posted...

Yeah I just realized i fucked it up. 1 - (5/6)^n is correct. Sorry tomnook. I was working backwords from 5/6 being the odds of not getting a six, but I had a brain fart on writing the actual formula.

Haha, it's all good. I kind of realized the other part of that equation didn't quite work when I started plugging it in.

Fascinating stuff though. Math is always way more fun when you can find real world applications. I made this topic because I was curious about some RPG drop rates and the likelihood of how many runs it would take to get certain things.

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PMarth2002 posted...

The odds of not getting a six is (5/6)^n, n being the number of dice rolls, so the odds of getting at least one six is (1/6)^n.

Awesome! Thanks!

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PMarth2002 posted...

roughly 1/3 for rolling zero 6s, 40% chance for rolling one 6, 20% chance for rolling 2 6s, 5% chance for three 6s, less than 1% chance for rolling 4 or more sixes. So about 2/3 for rolling at least one six over the course of six rolls.

anydice.com is very useful for figuring die probability out.

Thank you. That sounds about right. What is the specific formula for figuring this out if you know, because I need to apply it to other numbers for myself? I just don't even know the terms for looking it up, because there are such a ridiculous amount of probability terminology.

SunWuKung420 posted...

It's still 1 in 6. Because

So flipping a million coins in a row, there is only a 50% chance of getting heads at least once?

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SunWuKung420 posted...

Since the previous rolls do not affect the outcome of the subsequent rolls, it's always a 1in6 chance, no matter the number of rolls.

Just like every flip of a coin is always 50/50.

Hmmm, I don't think I explained what I mean well enough and I can't find this on the websites I checked, because the websites only talk about getting the same number of every dice rolled at once.

I know that every single roll will always be 1 in 6. But if you take a 6-sided dice and decide you are going to roll it 100 times. It can't be just a 1 in 6 chance that you will hit a 6 during those 100 rolls. I don't mean 1 in 6 for each roll. I mean the chance of hitting a 6 period, after all is said and done. Not the amount of 6's, or independently factoring each roll. Just getting a 6 at all.

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I'm trying to understand probability, or at least what math formula I'd use to determine this.

I know the chance of rolling a 6, on 1 roll is about 16%. But how does it scale when rolling it over and over. You clearly don't multiply it by the number of rolls, because something like this can't ever become 100%. But...I don't know what the formula is.

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Voted sometimes. Not too surprised at the results though. I know most video game and entertainment media websites are made up of struggling college students, so excess money is one thing most people in that demograph don't have.

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Nice topic. Johnny Depp actually getting acknowledged for his music!

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MarkS222222222222222 posted...

Jar Jar

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Sorozone posted...

It's garbage.

Prequal trilogy officially not the worst of the trilogy's.

Even if it is, PT and ST each have 1 great movie with RotS and TFA. So I'd say the are equal.

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Whiskey_Nick posted...

Luke was not a jedi in Revenge of the Sith

True. I just meant as a character, who eventually becomes one (mainly referring to all the poll options), but I suppose I worded that poorly.

Whiskey_Nick posted...

if you count voices then Obi Wan is in them all and Yoda is if you count force ghosts, plus whoever shows up in Episode 9

I think the voices and force ghosts are just the imagination of the person seeing them. I think it's a way to tangibly represent the strong intuition of the character who "sees/hears" them.

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I'd give her a 60 foot penis.

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BlackMageJawa posted...

The way it works is you have to own ALL of the previous games. So to get Puzzle Book free today, you must own Geki Yaba Runner and Robonauts.

This is actually a pretty interesting marketing strategy. Keeps their games at the top of the Best Sellers, and anyone who misses a day might feel compelled to buy a game they never would have just so they can continue the streak of free. This is clearly a company that always makes money from large amounts of small transactions since their game quality isn't very good, so anything that can make a few bucks can end up paying off.

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ChichiriMuyo posted...

Don't anybody get your hopes up. This is a mere formality.

Yeah, pretty much. Companies do this all the time with dead franchises.

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Getting into porn at over 40? Who is even the target audience?

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Only about $50, but that's because I moved on from that style of pant and haven't wore jeans since I was a teen.

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Luke is the most Star Wars. He's the only Jedi to show up in all 3 trilogies, right? Probably one of the few characters too.

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scarletspeed7 posted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jar_Jar_Binks

Save it for Best Sith

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Nanis23 posted...

:|
What the actual fuck...are you serious...?
I AM planning to get every Gigantamax Pokemon so...I thought it might br just a matter of hours (considering how many times I saw GMax Orbeetle when I farmed Watts) but this is super discouraging

To be fair, my other two I've done were 4 months and 6 months. Must have just been terrible luck. But it soured me big time.

And I didn't zone out and miss the shadow. It was Lapras, who has a gigantic distinct shadow. And I wasn't at the wrong den either, but trust me that I checked a different source online every hour because I kept doubting that I was...

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swordz9 posted...

I have Sword. It took 6.5 months worth of days to finally show up lol

My record now is 2 years and 3 months. For a single Gmax to show up. This RNG is great.

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Most of the great stuff has already been mentioned.

I'll mention Limbo, which hasn't been said yet, because it got really high scores and had a lot of buzz.

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All of those are games that are almost constantly on sale for 19-50 cents. So yay I guess. Basically they were always free. However the ones I played weren't so good, and time is a more important resource than money, so I wouldn't really recommend, but feel free to get them.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

TWO DREEPYS.

Who are these absolute legends that are sending out their Dreepys en masse?

Dreepy is probably the single most common Pokemon to get from a surprise trade because of his competitive value, so everyone is trying to breed 6 IV ones, and shipping out the rest. The ones you got are probably 4 or 5 IV, which is great anyway.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

dude it straight up says "deleted by user"

Shhhh, don't point that out. He needs to keep up the trope of a cool 80s teen in detention who doesn't care about anything.

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Wanglicious posted...

and that's why Blizzard bows to China.
they know that for all the outrage and criticism in the US, if you give it 2 mere months people will jump right back in. conviction is only good for the next shiny treat.

Yup. I was saying this during that topic when people thought Blizzard was making a mistake. Blizzard was focusing on the product and not getting involved in politics. People didn't agree, had their tantrum, and now they are over it. The internet has a short term memory. There were already topics like a week afterward about people trying to figure out how to reactivate a Blizzard account they closed during the hysteria. And now, this far in the future, Blizzard is raking in even more money.

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All it takes is one seemingly normal person who is a mental mess, to have a bad day, and they will lash out over any argument. You gotta be careful when confronting people...

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Hasn't modern reality TV been pretty much limited to Kardashians, teen pregnancy, and singing shows? Not sure he'd really fit there.

But yeah, there is one game board I post on sometimes, and he always says how he "quit" the game like 10 years ago, but he still keeps posting about all the stuff he's playing in it.

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I was going to mock OP for letting Ulti live in his head rent free, but after seeing how much Ulti cares about downvotes, it seems everyone is living rent free in his head.

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This has to be the most unremarkable top 10 I've ever seen in one of these pageants.

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Die Hard released July 20 1988. No studio releases Christmas movies that time of year. That being said, a movie that overlaps into Christmas can be reason enough for any viewer to enjoy watching it at Christmas. It doesn't make it a 'Christmas movie', but also who cares if you want to call it one, ya know? Do what works for you.

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I like reading about this kind of stuff--these slice of life stories. What caused you to make this topic out of curiosity?

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It's like most DC movies unfortunately. Just pretty Meh.

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Looks pretty decent, but I can't imagine me ever loving it more than the animated one.

Zigzagoon posted...

While I enjoy that they are not following the original animated movie at all for sake of being different to the other remakes that have been way too similar (other than Jungle Book)

Luring people in with the Mulan name when it's going to be nothing like what the animated movie was will never not piss me off.

For myself, I just have absolutely no interest. Mushu and "I'll Make A Man Out Of You" are literally my two favorite things about the animated film so yeah... hopefully others enjoy I guess.

I feel you. Not having Mushu is sad, and I'm almost even more upset about no Crikee the cricket! He didn't do anything to deserve that :(.

Xiahou Shake posted...

I don't know if those arguments work when this is "Disney's Mulan." Like yeah the stories themselves existed way before Disney but it's pretty obvious what people are expecting when they go to these.

I agree, especially with all the direct references to the animated film in the trailer.

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Before I clicked Megalovania and Jump Up Superstar were the two things that I had in mind, so those seem like fair assessments.

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5tarscream posted...

I think all hunting should be banned sooooo

Ever driven through rural areas? Hunting should not be banned.
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Doesn't help you now, but I know the struggle of places storing your passwords for so long that you forget them when you actually need it. I'd recommend keeping some of your passwords in some offline location (on an electronic device, and/or physical), but make sure it's not obvious that it's a password. Like just put them in the middle of a bunch of text that literally no one will read. Like have a bunch of movie reviews saved, and just hide your passwords in the middle of a War Horse review.
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The Mana Sword posted...

Not huge on the D. Tutor art

Whaaat? That Demonic Tutor art is amazing! Very different from the usual art it gets (all of which have been great in the past though).

Also darn, no green tutor to round it out.
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A shot of Louis XIII and a shot of Jack Daniels and mix them together in a cup and drink it.
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This poll series was perfectly timed. A lot of variety for Thanksgiving day, and now that Thanksgiving is over, the leftovers keep dragging on and on.
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Snrkiko posted...

female cuz im a perv

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Posting hypothetical things as news because of a bias opinion is exactly what you shouldn't be doing in news. It would be like a waiter rightfully being fired for spitting in food.
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I know some people who only listen to full albums, and I know some people who never listen to them because they don't like hearing the same artist's songs all in a row. Where do you fall?
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1 > 2 >>>> 3 >>>>>> Salvation

Salvation was so bad that I dropped the series.
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v_charon posted...

The Mac and Cheese was good today.

Yeah, it's weird seeing toppings (gravy, cranberry) that are put on the other poll options, instead of mac & cheese and ham. Tomorrow add butter to the poll, because it goes on rolls.
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LusterSoldier posted...

SaveEstelle posted...

Again, Sword and Shield do not hold a candle to the golden age overall. And the story is a tremendous step down from Gen 7, which actually gave a fuck again after the lack of fucks in Gen 6.

It feels like a lot of people don't seem to care much about the story in the mainline Pokemon games. It's starting to become like the Mario platformers in that regard - you don't play Mario for the story (what little it has), it's all about the gameplay for Mario platformers.

With the mainline Pokemon games, people seem to play those for the gameplay, exploring a new region, or trying out the new Pokemon introduced.

I agree with you. It felt like Sword/Shield had too much story as is. I was constantly just skipping through dialogue. Luckily it was less than the previous games.
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I like turkey burger, turkey bacon, turkey sausage, all outside of Thanksgiving. I'm not a fan of traditional Thanksgiving turkey. That's why we eat ham.
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So the moment one of your female friends gets married, you can't be friends with her anymore? Or you just can't be friends with any female co-worker who are already married?

Surprised at these results, but some people do tend to be out of touch.
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Was expecting to see Ham winning. Not even in the poll, what.
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It's a great game. Very addictive to try and complete everything.
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Tag. I like some retro style gaming.
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Hoothoot

Owls are the best!
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