Lurker > LordoftheMorons

Probably should have seen the rulings coming given this tweet:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1281206685395292160?s=21

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1281206354334625793?s=21

Apparently even object permanence is too high a bar for Trump

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Given the fact that those are deaths when the occurred and not when they were reported (as they explain in the caption, so a bunch of deaths are missing, particularly the most recent ones) it could be completely consistent with exponential growth with an R slightly over 1, yes.

It's not that hard to understand why you should expect growth to be roughly exponential. The mechanism is that each individual person infects R other people on average. If R was constant that gives you exponential growth. In reality R is slowly varying as people modify their behavior, new rules are put in place, etc, but growth will be obviously be proportional to the currently infected population. With linear growth that's not the case.

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Shockingly, assuming linear growth of a quantity that fundamentally grows exponentially is not a reasonable thing to do!

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What job are you using?

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All of the numbers, including daily deaths, are now getting worse:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1281009997254742021?s=21

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Yeah I'd classify them as being in a temporary alliance with us. Democrats and the LP both have the same extremely important short term goal (removing Trump); I get not loving them, but they're being helpful at the moment.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

it feels insidious to me

I worry these guys are playing a longer game.
They get positive associations with their name now by switching over to the winning team, then four years from now the people who saw how good and smart they were today might be tricked into thinking theyre still good and smart when theyre doing ads to elect whatever classy republican is running in 2024.

From what I've read the GOP establishment that's still aligned with Trump absolutely hates them (particularly for going after his enablers in the party), so I don't think that's gonna happen. I think they've basically decided that the only way to de-Trumpify the party is to burn it down and start over.

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Harvard and MIT are suing over the Trump admin's sick decision to deport/bar visas from foreign students without in person classes in the fall:

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/7/8/harvard-mit-sue-immigration-authorities/

I assume that this probably won't be resolved before the election, so it's probably a case of weather or not SCOTUS will uphold an (I assume likely) lower court stay?

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Lincoln Project coming after GOP Senators hard:

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1280961056261767168

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Leafeon13N posted...

Keep in mind this part of the law can be immediately changed once Trump is out of office.

I actually don't think that's quite true. This isn't a law itself, it's an HHS rule on how the ACA is enforced. When they change rules, there's a review process (with public comment periods, opportunities to challenge, etc). Rules are also not supposed to be changed for arbitrary reasons like the policy preferences of the current administration (there's supposed to be an actual justification). Of course, that's exactly what the Trump administration did, so now the Biden admin will be in the awkward position of trying to undo all of these regulations basically with the reasoning of "the last guy changed all of these capriciously, and now we're just fixing them." I wouldn't be shocked if the conservatives on the court hypocritically let Trump's changes stand because of the bullshit presumption of good faith that they typically afford the government, and then hit Biden with "the executive can't just change things back and forth without new evidence driving those decisions"

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Horrible SCOTUS ruling today that employers cannot be forced to include birth control (which as you probably know is also used as medicine for some conditions in addition to just being used to prevent pregnancy) in the health insurance that they must provide to employees under the ACA:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-trump-exempt-employers-obamacare-birth-control/story?id=71254754

The decision was actually 7-2, but Kagan and Breyer did not join Thomas's opinion, and Kagan's seems to leave open the possibility that it could fail under a different challenge.

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Xeybozn posted...

Reopening schools is probably not a great idea, but what's the alternative? Cancelling the whole year would set most students behind for the rest of their lives. Besides, our top priority seems to be getting adults back to work; we can't do that without some form of low-cost childcare, and school is the only way we have to do that.

Elementary through high school is a fucked situation regardless of how you slice it. The solution was to take the pandemic seriously enough to have things in control by the fall; that's not gonna happen now.

College is much simpler, though: continue to do fully remote instruction. Yes, there are still downsides, but college does not have the childcare dual function of grade school, college students are older and thus more susceptible to the virus, and have the combination of freedom and irresponsibility that will maximize poor distancing decisions.

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Full disclosure, I'm personally quite worried for myself; I'm not sure if I'm gonna have to teach or not this fall, but if I do I assume I will have basically no leverage to refuse teaching in person beyond saying "fuck it, I'm taking the semester off" (which I do have the money to do if absolutely necessary, and would probably seriously consider, though health insurance might be an issue).

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Cases here have been spiking substantially over the past week. Apparently most of them stemmed from frat parties.

I think the tradeoffs for elementary through high school are more difficult, but I continue to think that colleges even partially resuming in person classes in the fall is a very bad idea.

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Drakeryn posted...

Wait, is this not a thing? I still, like, disinfect all my groceries and try and leave mail for a few days before opening it.

Surfaces are a disease transmission pathway, but they account for a much smaller fraction of transmission than droplets/aerosols. Afaik it lasts particularly long on metal, so wiping down high touch metal surfaces like doorknobs would be the highest priority. I still wipe down my delivery orders since someone else was touching them minutes earlier, but leaving your mail out for days is overkill.

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He is currently providing a masterful demonstration of the consequences of having someone who is unqualified for the presidency in every dimension during a crisis

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The sequels are better!

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I am very confused by the three swiftcasts and whatever that other scholar skill is on the person's bar

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Afaik the main reason was concerns of shortages for healthcare workers. There was also uncertainty about their efficacy (particularly if not worn properly), and a concern that people would be less careful about distancing if they felt like they were already protected by the mask. It was certainly a big mistake, though.

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N-Gage

But that's very likely wrong since it would get joke votes at least

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PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

Okay, and WHO says masks are unnecessary when exercising with proper social distancing and that they're a detriment when exercising. And it's in a place where everyone is wiping things down and being cleaner than ever, as well as the actual facilities themselves.

Why are you so against this to an obnoxiously smug degree?

The WHO has been extremely slow to reconsider its initial position on masks. It took them until early June to recommend them for general use. They are not the definitive authority on all covid advice, and there is certainly not a general consensus among public health experts that distancing without masks is enough to make exercise safe indoors.

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GentlemanGamer posted...

are you suggesting he is proposing fundamental change? or just being finnicky? the context does not effect anything - a minor adjustment to the tax rate that he proposes is not fundamental change, his campaign messaging has been just that things won't be crazy and you won't have to think about who is helming the empire. not that anything will change, just that it will go back to pre-2016. for many people this is comforting, and what they desire, but it is definitely not fundamental change.

If you want to make the argument separate from that quote, go for it. Im just saying that that quote is a dumb gotcha that doesnt mean what anybody who bring it up are implying.

Biden will likely push for big change in some areas (e.g. Id expect policing, guns, climate change) and for incremental change in others. Presidents dont have unlimited political capital, so thats practically not very different from being for huge change for everything but having the same top priorities.

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Bolsonaro has covid

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GentlemanGamer posted...

His major messaging centers around "nothing will fundamentally change"

The context of this quote was literally telling rich people that their taxes going up is not the end of the world

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Im sure a large part of the work of his transition team will be setting up plans to immediately undo as much of Trumps fuckery as they can.

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Mob 2

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ShatteredElysium posted...

I'm convinced the number of people who are asymptomatic far outweighs those with symptoms. Or maybe that's already known?

Just speaking from when I had it and the number of people who would have been exposed to me before I knew I had it. Yet only one person showed symptoms and they were someone I interacted with for like 10 seconds from completely across the room so may not have even got it from me. Obviously I hoped I didn't pass it on to anyone but I'd bet that most of them were asymptomatic

Afaik the chance of you giving covid to a given person over a single interaction is not super high. Recall that without mitigation it has an R0 of somewhere between 2 and 3, so thats the average number of people someone would be infecting; most of them would have been interacting with many more people than that. But thats still enough to cause the virus to grow out of control without mitigation.

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Not that I know of, but I haven't kept up with all that many people since the pandemic began.

One of my friends' dad and grandmother got it, though (thankfully both have recovered).

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uhhh

Mob

I guess

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charmander6000 posted...

I don't know who that is, but I'm hoping he's making a correlation =/= causation joke to bait dumb people.

Former NYT reporter who has decided to hitch a ride to fame by adding a veneer of respectability to COVID denialism

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It's the dog with the top hat on, actually...!

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Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah thats some bullshit by Harvard

I mean I understand where you're coming from (students are definitely getting a worse education over Zoom, and Harvard in particular could definitely tide itself over with money from its endowment), but the vast majority of universities are in a huge jam here. Their costs are pretty much fixed (they still have to pay all of the professors, they don't save any money on not using rooms, etc) unless they're gonna start laying off a ton of people. Meanwhile, a decent fraction of students are likely going to take the semester off because they feel unsafe going to in person classes and/or they (reasonably) don't feel like they're getting as much out of online classes. There's no good solution here (besides the Federal government bailing them out, but they certainly can't count on that).

xp1337 posted...

Anyway, as fun as playing with the maps is (I mean that genuinely) switching gears because this is so fucked up:

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1280207487573069827

ICE announces to students here on student visas that if their schools goes online-only for the fall they must leave the country (or transfer to somewhere with in-person instruction during a pandemic) (FWIW, the twitter thread explains that blocking online-only was part of the regulations but not making an exception given the situation is cruel)

(Also we're in the beginning of an eviction crisis)

Fucking disgusting.

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Fargo

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Jakyl25 posted...

I think its case by case, and if someone truly is irredeemable, why not just put them down?

For the sake of argument lets say we are 100% sure

Not being sure is the most important reason not to use the death penalty, but it also debases ourselves (and then less importantly there's the practical matter of the fact that it costs more to execute someone than to jail them for life given appeals etc).

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Jakyl25 posted...

God what is it with this knee jerk reaction to lock up and dehumanize people.

Please stop calling criminals monsters. Theyre people, like you and me, no matter what theyve done. Life has led them down this road somehow, and you dont fix the problem by just erasing him. When you call him inhuman, you put him in a category where its okay to not treat him like a person anymore.

There are some people who are beyond help and he might be one of them, I dont know, but this sort of reaction bothers me.

1) To be clear, I'm referring specifically to the rapist (unless the doxxer knew ahead of time that this would happen, in which case I would also put him in this category). If someone is so devoid of empathy that they're capable of using rape as a method of punishment, I'm very confident that there is no way that they can be reformed.

2) I don't think it's therefore okay to subject such a person to inhuman treatment themselves, but they have, in my mind, given up any right to be free and pose any risk to anyone else ever again.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Thread. Oklahoma officer doxxed a city councilwoman for cutting the police departments budget, then sent a rapist to assault her. The rapist hit her neighbor on accident.

https://twitter.com/kendallybrown/status/1279474052097363969?s=19

People like this need to be locked up for life. Utterly irredeemable monsters.

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Probably not just because I waste so much time here (but I think it would be positive if I was able to moderate that more).

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SmartMuffin posted...

But that's no big deal right?

People's livelihoods are being destroyed, but anyone who cares is just some sort of selfish idiot!

They're being destroyed by the virus

Getting the virus under control ASAP instead of half-assing it is the only way to mitigate the economic damage.

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ExThaNemesis posted...

so ur not worried about Kanye joining at all then?

coz at least that would be consistent

No, I'm not particularly worried, particularly given that afaik all of the filing deadlines have passed.

It's still a selfish move worthy of scorn given how necessary it is to get this colossal fuckup who's currently actively impeding our pandemic repsonse out of the White House, though!

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ExThaNemesis posted...

I am absolutely LIVING for liberals on Twitter being outraged about Kanye running for president because he will jeopardize Joe Biden's chances of winning.

It's almost as if maybe you shouldn't have put a joke candidate whose bid could be derailed by mf YEEZY of all people out there in one of the most important elections of ur lifetime but WHAT DO I KNOW

A "joke candidate" that's up 10 points in the polls?

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https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1279404329124986886?s=21

Guilfoyle is Don Jr.s girlfriend (and Gavin Newsoms ex)

Noem is the governor of SD, who recently said that they would not be social distancing at the Mount Rushmore fireworks display.

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SmartMuffin posted...

http://stonetoss.com/comic/breathe-easy/

I am once again stating my very reasonable request to at least refrain from posting content from literal neonazis in this topic series

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Metal Gear

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https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1279266458640367616

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Also I feel obligated to post this BONUS SONG from an episode of Colbert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhFeQSBZUSk

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Saw it in person in SF about a week before the lockdown started (though not with the original cast of course). I had listened to the soundtrack many times, but it was great to see the visuals too.

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King George is definitely a lot of fun

IMO the most interesting character is Burr

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://babylonbee.com/news/americans-prepare-to-celebrate-independence-day-while-confined-to-their-homes-by-the-government

July 4th: "dude, where's my freedom?"
July 9th: "dude, where's my oxygen?"

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https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1278747263439794178

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