Lurker > Chaeix

11 Left - 9v2
9 Left - 7v2
7 Left - 5v2
5 Left - 3v2

It's been discussed that Mylo is 7 left if scum aren't forced to pair up because they just pair up at 5 and win. Let's use that as the basis for our approach here. Scumbuddies are more likely to want to pair up at 9 so that they can't pair up at 7. To be able to pair up at 9, they can't pair up at 11. I don't think the scumbuddies are likely to pair up today, so we should be considering yesterday's pairings and next day's once we have them. I think this is a generally safe paradigm to operate under because scum shouldn't be expecting a 3-death day which would potentially screw up their plans for when they can pair. This may all be useless but my brain thinks it's relevant.

Before I get to listing through everyone, can I get confirmation on whether Chris is prosty that targets his roommate, or a specific player? I missed that on my readthrough

alright starting on catching up, my lack of focus today is very real

Zelda

Will catch up on last topic in the morning, but a quick skim of this page is indicating theres lots of ~juice~

tazzyboyishere posted...

Only other one I've heard is Sanctuary-Shu, and I'm not a fan.

If anyone else is wanting to nominate new songs exclusively, let me know. But like, if you don't intend to change nominations after asking, then don't ask plz. Most of the songs are new to me.

if you've heard blackbird i'll at least replace that one, i nominated it because the first time listening is a journey (and tbh i hope you're stoned for it if you do listen to it for the first time). i'd be more surprised if you'd heard the other ones (except maybe lofi lia)

sixth song:

Treetop Flyers - Haunted House
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKcRT0ZHo2M

Twelve

why

you too buddy

scum just sitting back laughing

ugh I feel like I made a mistake

Waluigi

##breakup
##date: corrik

this feels absolutely terrible to do

NFUN posted...

so you're saying tazzy isn't your friend

oh no my secret blood feud with tazzy is exposed

EDumey posted...

I mean you can read the arguments from Lopen and Corrik above. I personally think a Cop that gets back either a "No person in this room is scum" or "One or both persons in this room are scum" can exist with a miller. Scum had reason to believe that style of role could exist because Peaf's role operated the same way. Miller could exist to give a false positive, since scum is low numbered and a cop scan would be absolutely fatal to them.

But I genuinely don't know enough about proper game balance to tell you one way or the other. I just think it seems possible and either players or host could interpret the balance differently.

Here's my real argument. Do you think Lea is more towny than Corrik, Kirby, and Red?

I think definitely not between Corrik and Kirby. And I personally think Red is probably town, so I'm willing to "vote Lea" here and follow Corrik's analysis. At worst we lose a Miller, right?

its a good question and Ill think about it. not to say they should claim (yet) but the lack of claim from red and corrik does make it more difficult. I do think Kirby is more town than Lea all things considered and Corrik has come into the second half of the day swinging and impressed me. Power-shaded conduct (or bluster, who knows).

if kirby were here saying hed jump in bed with me this would be potentially much easier

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Eod is tonight right? Idk of im going to be able eod. And there is alot going on and I'm a bit confused.

I probably get miss axed baring a guilty scan tonight soo

Mt reads haven't really changed but if I some reason die tonight Kill Chris?

this really reads like you scan guilty if you get scanned ngl

Enchantress posted...

@chaeix You're a sweet guy and I was really impressed with your play last game, but it's time to let me die.

Don't shit talk me in your rooms, because I'm voeying you all. Try to keep it to respectful comments, like "oh I feel bad I don't understand Lea's brilliant mafia strategies, why did we martyr such a goddess " and "Lea has an ass you can bounce a quarter off of, god she's so hot why did we non-self-immolate her"

i do see your point about this hanging over you

well not 50/50 but you know what i mean, we don't get enough conclusivity from a scan for it to be as powerful

EDumey posted...

Huh? Maybe I missed something, but I don't think it was specifically that she thought Lopen was a scanner. I think she thought that ANYONE could scan an entire room, just like Peaf could.

see i'm kind of approaching it from the lens of room scanner and miller being mutually exclusive. i don't think we have a miller if we only have a 50/50 shot of identifying scum through a positive scan. if a room scanner exists, i don't think miller exists. scum lea wouldn't claim miller if she assumed a room scanner exists because miller shouldn't exist in that setup.

EDumey posted...

Would just like to say that should the numbers support it, I would be willing to do a sacrificial triple kill on Chris and Sultan tomorrow.

same tbh this sounds hilarious

EDumey posted...

The key is I don't think she did it intentionally. She scans guilty, had no info about what kind of scans were out there, except context that Peaf scanned an entire room instead of an individual person. We discussed in our night chat that Lopen/Lea was a strong chance of eating a night kill, but there's also a strong chance they ate a scan because they're both regarded as strong players. Confirming them both would be good. But Lea knows she scans guilty, so uses the Miller claim privately just in case the scan comes out.

I can't say for sure that's what happened, but I'm just imagining A scenario where she could have incentive to claim during the night. Claiming during the night to Lopen looks MUCH better than trying to claim in D2 after a scan comes out.

that doesn't explain why she claims miller in the first place though?

like i don't think the appropriate level of paranoia justifies the claim. why would lea pair up with lopen if she thinks he's a scanner instead of coming back to me?

Vampire Weekend | Obvious Bicycle (4:12)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrVkKAylpF8
@Chaeix

Paris Paloma | notre dame (4:19)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vfz4qL9suk
@Chaeix

Rainbow Kitten Surprise | When it Lands (Live from Athens Georgia)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py9Lmi60KTY
@Chaeix

Ezra Bell | His First and Last Sounds (2:48)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sqZlpGK1fM
@Chaeix

first four

nobody has explained to me why lea would self-immolate for no reason if she's scum who thinks there's probably a room cop

Kirby321 posted...

So in other words

Sultan and Chris are scum and just watching town eat themselves alive

i would be shocked if neither was scum

Corrik7 posted...

It's not. It's choose a room.

again, we don't know the permutation for sure

Enchantress posted...

It's okay to let me die, JC. The Miller claim is going to be an albatross around my neck all game, and nobody is even flirting with me anyway. You've got my list of vague opinions, Corrik is probably town, the rest is probably the same.

iyo who's remaining scum then?

if cop is restricted to room partners then they also have a mechanical limitation

Lofi Lia - The Poem for Everyone's Souls (from "Persona 5")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CutGH2Be2mI

The Rural Alberta Advantage - 3 Sisters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z7TatJJ9eU

Tash Sultana - Blackbird
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYZeF26fO68

Milo Greene - I Know About You
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNfU515cros

Teamfight Tactics - 8-Bit x Hyperpop x EDM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-itQ8eab7s

i hope you like these tazzy! tried to recommend based off of what you said you like, as if i was giving reccos to a friend

wait is isquen actually cop

Lopen posted...

JC claimed right after or right before breaking up in the chaos yesterday

i claimed when it was me/peaf/kirby left unpaired

Corrik7 posted...

When did lea claim jc. Like specifically when. Not just not first post. But when.

can you just tell me so i don't have to look, you have the answer locked and loaded

well that is awfully noble of you lea

corrik if i were to date you, do you think i'm town enough that you might consider claiming to me in confidence?

would require a lea breakup in that situation and i am somewhat worried that leaves her to the wolves. what i'm wondering is why scum would claim miller without knowing what kind of scan town has. it would take a lot of paranoia for a lopen cop scan to claim miller, and if a room cop does flip, lea just gets exploded. lea's too good a player to make a fakeclaim that could potentially get exploded because she didn't think about the distinction between room cop and regular cop imo.

UltimaterializerX posted...

She is not the #1 target in a game Chris is in. Shed be 2.

I mean fwiw until the flip dumey and i both had chris right near the top of our scum lists

Lopen posted...

This is so at counter to how Ulti has played the entire game that you know he's scum for it

"please kill me" to survive, the great zane knight strategy

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/026e9709.jpg

forever in our hearts

given that dumey and i both thought lea was a prime NK target, if she's town her reasoning holds lol

Corrik7 posted...

Let's see. JC should I claim? Yes or no and why.

i mean i'm not sure you haven't already

i'd say hold off for now but definitely keep it in the bag for the chance you're not paired up. if you're town power we're down protection and it helps narrow down who other power could be for scum.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I swear if you people let Lea live tomorrow when I am totally self saccing for a 1:1 trade I will lose it.

why would we sacrifice you today if you're town? are you so sure that none of the remaining unpaired are scum that you're effectively giving up?

UltimaterializerX posted...

A natural read, not a scan.

ah i follow

UltimaterializerX posted...

Because Lea is scum and saw there was no godfather, so she fake claimed miller.

My conspiracy brain is she has a cop read on Lopen (forcing her to claim something), Lopen scanned my room night 1, and the final 2 are Lea + Red.

a cop read on lopen from what exactly, didn't scum cop die

tomorrow we put pressure on sultan when chris can't pair up with him pls

Corrik7 posted...

Jc broke up with his partner also during the run of breakups right? I have no belief at all that all 3 scum tossed themselves back in.

And then if Kirby wasn't in the final 3 then he is town. Only way he would be scum is if he was in the final 3 and chose the stronger scum partner. He wasn't tho.

yeah i broke up with lea because she told kirby to date me and then kirby dated lea instead so me and dumey shacked up

Corrik7 posted...

His argument is the final 3 are all scum? Who was the last 3?

me and dumey

are they in alignment with the changmars

Lopen posted...

No that works too

But only if Kirby is scum

Either Kirby must be scum OR he had to be nervous about how you two would look

why would he break up to get scumbuddy Kirby to save him and then subsequently not be saved?

limited scum numbers does increase the power of a direct cop scan, i agree, but also increases the risk of a misfire, and godfather is a strong balancing factor

anyways let's wait for some flips and claims

yeah i think we can be pretty confident that there's some kind of scanner so until we know the nature of it i'd prefer not to charge forward too far into assumptions based off a hypothetical role. also means we will have more information on lea eventually

or maybe "there is scum in the room", i doubt the scan would get positive confirmation of one/two

Corrik7 posted...

So bear with me. A cop who can target across rooms all game is too strong with a game of 3 scum. The cop would have to be like a 1 shot room scan.

Which there is no way the cop wouldn't have claimed today with a spent power and the checks to give out and go to the grave with.

Thus, I am feeling there is not actually a cop, and by extension, very well likely not a godfather either. Which Ulti knew because there is no reason at all to assume there is no godfather in a game.

Someone with possibly too much knowledge acting like they theorized it.

Do you think a town cop would look more like the scum cop? e.g. that it scans a room and gets back a 'one person is guilty' scan?

I can't ping chang for some reason but I'm wondering if you can post a date when posting one half of a mutual breakup and have that still be a valid offer if/when the other person accepts the breakup

Lea the only person I'd break up with you for right now is Kirby, if he really would prefer I spend the night with him.

Lopen posted...

Why does Peaf gambit at all if Dumey and Kirby and JC and Lea are town. It's too suicidal

but what would he be relying on his scumbuddy to do in that situation if not pair up with him? why risk the exposure unless your scumbuddy is your life raft? like your argument relies on one of his scumbuddies just leaving him completely hanging with a good role and a bad claim

Lopen posted...

JC

That's why he got stuck

But what makes him scum is "why do it to begin with"

i think where we're diverging is 'because he thought peaf was an easy partner' is a satisfactory answer for me, which i believe was red's position?

Corrik7 posted...

Would really suck if someone forced themselves on ulti at the buzzer and left dumey and two others in a tizzy.

are you claiming like, town... snowplow? trying to think of an appropriate metaphor