Lurker > Lopen

I gave you crap for taking so long on the last few but I did very much enjoy reading thoughts on these and for the most part agree with your ranking too. Gemini Man was always one of my more (I thought, now I'm not sure) off kilter favorites so good to see it get some love too.

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At this rate we may finish by the end of the year

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Once FAMI doubles I'll put my profits into Alibaba LEAPS

China has never steered me wrong before

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China

Buy the dip on China

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Also grabbing 300 shares of ANY (along with 5 Oct calls)

Elon Musk rumors + clean energy + bitcoin + short interest I don't see this one going bad

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Tossed in about 2k on a Chinese magic mushroom stock going for $0.23 currently, FAMI. Seems like there could be upside on a lot of fronts here

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Visual pinfalls and losses that have "an excuse" and are the time honored tools of WWE booking.

And it's why no one is over. Because people actually want finishes to matter.

If you try to make everyone over no one is over. Turns out if you just do clean no excuse finishes more often people can get over a loss.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

the same amount of confidence gets placed in them.

Nothing with the variance in value of a crypto will ever work as currency.

Maybe someday that's actually what they'll be for but when you're tripling or halving in value of the course of a few months it's not actually a currency yet. That's just an ideal, one that will be harder to reach the more governments oppose it.

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Digging into it more

I think it was just a Chinese bank vowing to crackdown on illegal crypto transactions

But man the $5 2023 put looks nice at $0.60. If RIOT drops to $2 you're looking at a 6 bagger. Totally plausible if btc crashes considering it was hovering around there before the bitcoin surge.

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Part of me feels like crypto becoming illegal in America is more likely now and those RIOT puts are looking more tempting

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Where do you think gvsi goes in the really long term

Do you think it could ever become a real company that has profits and issues dividend? Cause I'm seeing 1.8 million shares and am thinking man even with 0.1 annual dividend you'd totally rake even with a 1:10 split if that ever happened

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Don't close it, let it live for years.

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I believe batteries are actually the bigger problem right now

Nuclear isn't as necessary if you have better ways to store solar wind hydro etc.

That being said yes I think society embraces Uranium a bit on the way to battery tech

DNN having almost 1 billion of stores of Uranium bought at $30/lb when spot Uranium is $50/lb (and could plausibly reach like $1-200) gives it a lot of upside though even without considering their own awesome mine

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Also getting some ASTS calls

Feeling pretty wsb today.

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Going with some calls of BODY

I believe in the power of Arnold gifs

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If only I'd gotten the $105 September PUTS I would've been raking now.

WYNN has actually pulled back enough that I kinda like calls on it again though. 2024 LEAPS have interesting pricing across the board depending on risk tolerance and goals. Like the 2024 65c seems almost impossible to lose money on and is an easy triple candidate to me. On the flip side you could just shoot way out of the money and stack up the 2024 150c and I think the odds of those printing is fairly high as it'd only need to reach around $160 by then for that to happen.

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Hold through 2024

Get a 1000% gain

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Sunroof posted...

I hate DNN. I think I bought in around $1.50 back in February. Thank god I didnt hold for seven months just to get a 25% gain.

I feel like 25% is about what your average is though

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Got Olan's Awakening on the lotr

I guess he needs his Sync to be super good though right (I actually already have Yuna and Mog as capable offrealm full break counters though)

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Yeah it sounds horrible. I think I'd be day 1 lynched every day there due to not drinking the kool aid.

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TheRock1525 posted...

so I have a hard time believing Vince would want to pay a lot of money for a manager

At least he'd be being used. I've seen Vince pay a lot of money to just bench guys

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I still have a decent amount of DNN

14 $0.5 Mar 2023 calls, been selling $1.50 and $2.00 calls to cost average down considerably. Contracts were about $0.50 each at this point which is a nice deal basically cost average of $1 per share

Do have half locked in $2 Oct calls which while I don't particularly want to be taken I wouldn't complain about. I just believe in the stock though not really a short squeeze play for me.

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People are selling off to get in on 2024 LEAPS

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I think the biggest praise for MM5 from me is that I haven't played it that many times yet still remember all these songs pretty vividly even them being so intricate, and it's not like I listen to Mega Man music either. Not beyond random OCRemixes sometimes which are all MM2 and MM3 anyway. Definitely has the lowest playrate to retention ratio of any of the Mega Man games.

Like I see the title is for Protoman's Castle and I'm like no way I remember this one very well probably played through the entire game probably less than 5 times but no I do pretty much perfectly.

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Coincidence being the default assumption is conceit if you've got even a loose connection to cause and effect. Most things are not coincidence just in general.

"I don't understand why that worked-- he must have got lucky!" or maybe he is just playing a style of mafia you're not familiar with

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If you're assuming a coincidence when something good happens as a result of a play you don't like by default you're already judging with a flawed outlook

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Like diplomacy isn't universally the best play. If judges are thinking that I definitely don't respect the judges either-- it speaks to conceit (I know what works and if you aren't doing that you're bad at the game) more than objective assessment of what occurred in a game.

That's simply not something you can consider a universal truth and while no doubt it has its place, with many towns it's absolutely best to ruffle feathers.

If you can shake out scumtells from other people by rocking the boat a bit it's often more valuable than making everyone sing kumbaya as not only will it shake out a scum player but it will also bring forth a ton of useful discourse as people react or don't react to the tell. Overly diplomatic play is dangerous too as it's much easier for scum to keep up a facade when everything is low pressure.

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What would work "in general" sounds like exactly the mindset that has people overly pushing bucket strategy

Seems like you'd have a self fulfilling prophecy too often if that mindset is too prevalent. If there's a way to play a game that "should work" it is then determined that it "did work" even if maybe it actually didn't and should not have in the situation.

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Not on the one you're claiming you missed out on

If you touch like 400 investments you're going to miss a lot more gains (and losses) than you hit that's all I'm saying. You can't really feel upset you missed on Eth gains when you hardly held it

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Also the fact you're gloating about how long you've been holding Bitcoin, a whopping two and a half months, is hilarious.

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How long did you hold Eth though

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Sunroof posted...

In todays episode of, Complaining when your pot of gold is too heavy, I would like to point out that I had $101k of ETH at $1,810 late June. Sold it all to go onto Bitcoin.

It turns out you can't catch huge profit windows when your investment attention span is on average sub 24 hours

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Actually technically I used Dispel on Celes looking at my party list. Not sure why.

I think for the very slight lower CT than Banishing.

Either way!

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Celes can use Banishing Strike, Squall can use Dispel. Those are two more options for dispel if you're hurting for slots and can spare an ability slot from either one.

(I used the former option)

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I ran a similar party. Celes with basically just chain, and Squall + Snow with similar stuff to your Squall + Ayame, to beat him pretty easily.

I did use Fran as imperil with just her dualcast LMR (didn't use her imperil lmr as I didn't have it at the time) and her imperil USB.

Anyway I do think you need a little bit. The big thing is that while I don't think he would buff his resist to a point where you couldn't kill him, you don't want your meter generation to go down by not hitting weak. Those 3 with an imperil + healer would be a good party-- if you don't have Laguna you don't necessarily need him. Whichever character you have that vaguely slots that has machinist 6* or any sort of imperil ice soul break would probably be sufficient.

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Well I haven't gotten one but my address on file with Robinhood is an address I no longer live at and had no forwarding set up from so I doubt I will

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That sucks so much

I'm probably more sad about that wrestling death than like... any of them. Part of that is because I love Daffney but part of it is just knowing the circumstances too, it just sounds super sad.

I know TNA's screw up was like 10 years ago now but I wouldn't be surprised if she never really got her life fully back in order after getting saddled with all those unpaid medical bills and being unable to perform for a long time.

But who knows, really. A lot can happen in that time too.

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Well I've done some dumb tricks with say like Rikku, going Awakening -> Meter Glint -> Chain in the first 3 slots and starting her with a bar so she still gets to do some good damage in auto while still casting chains

Vivi doesn't have a meter glint but if you have Vivi's Overstrike or Glint you could put that right of the chain and then he'll repeatedly use those after the chain of whatever (since they only cast half a bar). Not sure that's worth it but it's something to do if you don't want to recast a chain

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Did the FF6 Dreambreaker using overdrive to get the mission. Basically chose the one that seemed most obnoxious of the ones I haven't done that seemed doable

I guess it helps that my stronger FF6 characters are not fire based mostly. Had Edgar doing Poison damage (he was mostly just there to use his realm chain though)

Kinda funny that the fight almost discourages you from going full on realm. That tail attack was enough to make me sub out Mog for Vanille but I think that was for the best. Vanille just heals better.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Like if I had a second SB on him, would it use SB1>2>1>2 etc, or just repeatedly use 1? Ive only used auto for completely trivial content in the past so Im not sure exactly how the AI works.

AI uses the leftmost break whenever they can, as soon as they can.

So generally you want to have the stuff you want to cast first further left.

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Finally ended up doing XIII Dreambreaker

Super easy actually. Could easily optimize this down to close to sub 30. Apparently I forgot to give Fang her dualcast lmr and Sazh his and was spamming Lightning Sync command 1 rather than alternating 1 and 2, and also wasted Sazh meter on USB3 when I could have used that on his realm chain



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Agreed.

And town that isn't having fun is on average more likely to burn out and choke endgame

Honestly I think there's a lot of nuance to the merit or lack thereof of the strategy and it's probably a lot more subjective than the community would have you believe

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Seems like a strategy that gets progressively worse as the caliber of player increases. Good players won't believe power role fake claims as easily. Good players will be harder to identify as scum without power role help. Good players won't gain as much by narrowing the pool of wrong choices as they're going to be more likely to find reasons to vote that are on average better than random chance

I'd probably have argued with it too

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Actually just having all the players vote, but making their consensus amount to a couple of judge votes rather than being weighted the same, would be better than a random player selection. But eh what can you do. Working out the kinks of the judging system itself is probably a game of mafia on its own.

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Dels posted...

so you don't really have time to get any proper sample size for the players, unfortunately

Not enough of one where game results can be the sole determining factor, no.

Enough of one where you can weigh them in somehow? Absolutely.

No idea on where you place the weights exactly but like someone winning being worth +1 advancement vote in the judge panel probably wouldn't skew results a ton.

Mostly a judge panel, as large of one as you can make + some weighing of results + a random selection of players in game to flesh out the numbers a little (strong majority should still be panel) seems best to me. Definitely entirely going off in game player votes seems like a bad idea.

I'd be curious to see what the win percentage and average survival duration of previous winners has been though. Maybe stats don't matter as much as I think they do.

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Right. Diplomacy is important when it influences votes on the right guy and doesn't have you making bad votes.

They're both bad outcomes, but diplomatically voting for the wrong guy is worse than voting for the right guy and convincing no one every time. Especially since you're likely to lose all that social capital you gained by being diplomatic by being wrong, and then getting lynched yourself is usually the worst outcome.

Obviously you'd like to vote for the right guy and convince everyone, but yeah, doesn't always work that way.

I guess where I'm at is I see people in game significantly more likely to be frustrated when someone is being abrasive than people outside the game, and sometimes being abrasive (within reason) is a better play than not, so yeah in those edge cases you're gonna have trouble with the judging process.

My thought would be ideally play along with bucket strategy until it comes to a conclusion you don't like (unless you think it's fundamentally a bad strategy, then you gotta pick the fight immediately otherwise you lose credibility when you do), THEN pick the fight with it. Not that I'd necessarily be able to have that restraint either-- seems like the exact kind of fight I'd pick in a mafia game <_<

But yeah it's hard to know. Anyway I was more out to discuss why I'm not sure the community has a good method for choosing which players advance than whether your play was good, which I can't really know as I didn't follow the game.

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Now granted there is something to be said for "trying to play diplomatically is good" because you need to convince people to vote, so I mean, maybe trying to curry the favor of the players is good play. And maybe there is something to be said that refusing to bucket or whatever is a distraction for town. I don't know.

I just think you introduce a lot of weird factors when you have players in game vote on who did best. You're likely going to be close to the right answer but to me it feels impure. People tend to overvalue diplomacy and undervalue actually being correct on b8 at least in my experience in the postgame chats, and tend to say people who had correct reads got "lucky" more often than they probably should (unless diplomacy allows the player to AVOID the lynch, then it was all the town being bad-- and I say this as someone who imo is actually fairly good at convincing people in mafia games) and I would be surprised if that wasn't the case there.

This gets worse ESPECIALLY when people are upset about things. The people who are less directly involved in the game tend to value things more fairly on average I think.

I also think the actual stats in the game should count for something and it shouldn't be straight voting (maybe it isn't?) because while getting stuck on "a bad team" can happen on average good players will win more often than bad ones, regardless of team they're on. With enough sample size you'd be able to stabilize bad draws to the point where game results actually do indicate the strength of a player.

ANYWAY yeah just talking. On the one hand, groupthink is bad and they probably do a lot of that in any established community. On the other in the few games of yours I've watched/played in with you I would say your bigger weaknesses have been the inability to convince people of things (which in large has been driven by your gratingness at times) so it's hard to really know how much I agree you were robbed without putting in way more effort than I want to, but I tend to think you're probably right in your appraisal based on what you're saying here.

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turbopuns3 posted...

this triggered like 10 people to reply to me insisting I don't understand that the bucket strategy is optimal

Well I can't say I read everything you said thoroughly, and I can't say I read the game to understand whether a bucket strategy was or was not optimal but this did enter my head as similar to the day 4 mass claim thing I was talking about

Not sure if that's what you're getting at but yeah this is part of what sent me on this tangent in any case!

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More I mean that you're trying to play in a way that seems like you'll curry the approval of the players in the game rather than the way that's actually most likely to win. Like for instance, as a super dumbed down hypothetical example that would never actually happen, if you're playing with a group of players that support mass claim on day 4 100% of the time, it would make you more likely to advance by pushing for a mass claim on day 4, even if it's dumb as hell to do so in the current game state, because you know the judges think that's smart.

But speaking in direct circumstances and not hypotheticals, I just feel like if you anger people who are playing you'll get screwed out of advancing because of salty people downvoting you more often than not, especially when it's somewhat tough to call.

With an unknown impartial judge panel I feel this is less likely to happen than it is with people who are involved in the game.

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Yeah. I don't know. I feel like vetted judges who aren't involved would be best.

Surely there are some people who are respected as "good" that don't make it to the high rounds.

Like I'd rather have a good player who is not in the game judge my play than a great one who is, generally.

I'm not saying no one can be impartial, but I do think when you're in those high rounds that it's likely a minority and you're likely meta-mafiaing to win those championships.

Especially with someone like turbopuns who can be pretty obnoxious to play with at times (I mean this in the nicest way)

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