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Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 3:43:26 PM
#267
Round 3 Division 8 Day 32
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 60.90%
Mario Kart 8 39.10%

Prediction Percentage 69.25%

This is the match that truly made Skyrim a big target and had people thinking it would be the weakest division winner in this half of the bracket, with a very few even thinking it could lose the next round. A group of us were defending Skyrims performance against Journey, but there certainly werent many people left defending Skyrim after today. I only remember myself and Lightning Strikes stepping up for Skyrim, though Im not saying there couldnt be more. People really couldnt find the reasons to believe Skyrim would still be in the elite.

Lets first put some numbers on the table. The 2015 x-stats project Skyrim to get 76% in this match. Over 15% more than it got today. Mario Kart 8 was behind Super Mario 64 SFF back then, but they lost to the same game. Despite many thinking Skyrim disappointed against Journey in the previous contest, oracles overestimated it be roughly 2.5%. Skyrim did the same against Mario Kart 8 as The Witcher 3 did to Super Mario Galaxy 2, further darkening Skyrims chances of making the final. The 2015 stats also show Metal Gear Solid V well above Mario Kart 8 as well, so Skyrim looked a good deal worse than Dark Souls in the eyes of many too.

Now, its time to pull out the Skyrim defense force again. First of all, Mario Kart 8 is near the bottom of the x-stats because we didnt adjust for Mario Kart 8 at all. It drew Super Mario 64 and nothing was done about it. I think thats largely forgotten. Theyre both Mario games, that match is loaded with SFF. It could be 65-35 without it and it wouldnt surprise me. Against something completely different Mario Kart 8 gets its appreciation but against perhaps the most respected game in the franchise and the biggest 3D Mario by a good margin, the fanbase has a favorite.

Thats before we even consider how Mario Kart 8 has all the reason to boost significantly. Weve talked about before how I believe Marios strength is determined partly by the current status of Nintendo. In 2015, Mario Kart 8 was a Wii U exclusive and that contest took place well after the peak of the Wii U. Do you know how low the peak of the Wii U was? Since then, Nintendo is perhaps bigger than theyve been since the N64 or at the very least since the early DS/Wii years. Furthermore, Mario Kart 8 was released on Switch. People like to use Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 2 as examples of why that might not matter too much, but those are different stories. Mario Kart 8 wasnt just released on the Switch, it also sold significantly more copies than any Switch game and is one of the very best selling games of all time. Everyone appreciates Mario Kart 8 and Skyrim is the perfect opponent for it to show that against. The spin-off franchise is huge, and Mario Kart 8 is widely regarded as the best one. At least it is if we remove our nostalgia goggles when looking at Super Mario 64.

People also tend to forget that after the initial board vote, Skyrim rises to the sky after the board vote, perhaps even to the outer rim. But Skyrim was behind for more than a minute and it was barely ahead at the freeze. It rose to heaven from there, but that embarrassment had already hit it, and people rarely look much at the match after its over. Im sure a good bunch of people thought Skyrim looked worse because it was at 55-56% when they looked despite it ending above 60%.

I dont actually need to defend Skyrim on the other side of the contest, because it went on to prove that it was still quite strong, even though The Witcher 3 was stronger. Mario Kart 8 therefore also ends up being a lot stronger than what the general consensus was and what its seeding indicated. Its the most underseeded game of the bracket, getting a #14 seed when it should have easily been a #3 seed at the least.

Mario Kart games have been in contests before, but they literally always run into other Nintendo games. That has happened every single time until now. Mario Kart Wii beating Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney is the only match the series has had without other Nintendo games and that was the Wii edition facing a DS game after the Wii stopped being too popular here. It really is a shame Super Mario Kart didnt get to participate in the year of SNES appreciation 2015 because if really was on par with Super Metroid it would have looked beastly that year. I have believed Mario Kart had always had a bit more to show than it got the chance too, and as everyone know I also believed Uncharted 4 was better than most people thought it would.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 9:55:42 AM
#265
Or that they both dropped a bit in strength.

That's for the next round though!

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 9:33:02 AM
#263
Round 3 Division 7 Day 31
Batman: Arkham City 44.76%
The Last of Us 55.24%

Prediction Percentage 58.13%

Before the contest, The Last of Us winning the division final was one of the most popular upset picks. Its ironic how it came closer to not even getting there than actually pulling that off, though we were already expecting that after the previous round. If we look at the 2015 x-stats, The Last of Us actually won by more than it was supposed, so I think we had just forgotten about Batman: Arkham City before the contest. Of course, there are reasons to think that result would have changed but were plenty of times in this contest where we only looked at 2015 stats and didnt consider how things could have changed. In fact, picking The Last of Us to win the division final is a perfect example of that.

Its possible people thought The Last of Us would be consistent with a sequel coming right up, but thought Batman would fall off since its no longer as relevant. It turns out both superhero games this contest were pretty decent, however. They look to be close to equal indirectly, makes me wonder how a direct matchup would go. Well probably never find out.

The match started out being pretty intense. Bracket votes werent there today, perhaps because people had started to be out of prize contention or perhaps because they didnt think it would be needed. If you believed the early part to be bracket votes, The Last of Us was in even more trouble though. It was behind the whole freeze, basically. It was close, but Batman was ahead and The Last of Us couldnt quite take the lead. It did in the next update, but only by a mere three votes, it would quickly take off though. Despite a few stalls and cuts from Batman, TLoU never really looked back eventually winning the match with ease. What a board vote that way though, and I think its mostly Naughty Dog not being very popular any longer.

It should be noted that this match happened just before a lot of The Last of Us 2 was leaked to a massive internet outrage. I wonder how much that would have changed. There are quite different opinions on how much that damaged The Last of Us. I doubt myself that it would have changed more than 2500 votes, but it certainly would have given The Last of Us a bigger scare.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 7:40:59 AM
#262
Round 3 Division 7 Day 31
Dark Souls 63.29%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 36.71%

Prediction Percentage 56.17%

This match had the honor of being our only repeat of the contest, which does not often happen, but then we had a Game of the Decade contest happening five years after the latest games contest instead of a year later like the first one did. As such it was not exactly exciting. Last time they met, Metal Gear Solid V was the favorite, but Dark Souls managed to pull off the upset in a 55-45 match. No one thought Dark Souls could drop it this time. Even if you didnt think Dark Souls boosted the slightest bit, there was no way Metal Gear Solid V would be even the slightest bit stronger. The best it could hope for was to not drop any further.

The difference is almost 8%. I expect most of it to be Dark Souls boosting. The Souldborne games have continued to grow in popularity, and more importantly, we had seen countless times by now that the title of the contest coupled with the forced voting helped certain games and Dark Souls is among the most defining games of the decade.

I dont expect Metal Gear Solid V to drop that much. It might sound weird, but the game was simply not as well received as the others in the franchise at any point. Nothing has actually happened since last games contest. Though its hard to imagine Metal Gear Solid V not dropping at least a little bit. Then franchise name helps it a bit, but it should grow weaker as time goes by.

I believe what happened with Kojima and Konami especially centering around Metal Gear is among the most unfortunate and frustrating things to happen to the gaming industry. Theres a good chance that all four of the first games would place in my top 20 games of all time. Theyre that great. There was plenty of reason to think Kojima could make more Metal Gear masterpieces if all that didnt happen. Even if they wouldnt all be A++ games, I hate to think of what could have been.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 5:54:22 AM
#13
Yeah, I'm super excited to play that one again, though I might a little bit starting it. Next week I'll have less time and I have other things I want to progress with in my spare time.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 5:47:41 AM
#261
Round 3 Division 6 Day 30
Portal 2 53.48%
Red Dead Redemption 2 46.52%

Prediction Percentage 23.57%

In what was a pretty good division half, Portal 2 managed to come out on top. Every match had the guru favorite winning, but you could make a decent argument for every game that won round 1 getting to the division finals. Portal was favored by only 50% of people, which is the most, but not that great in a chalky cookie cutter bracket like this one.

Portal 2 is one of the leftover games of the previous decade. It was released in 2011 of course, but I mean that if you tried to group games together by era, Portal 2 belongs with its predecessor in the previous decade. Portal not being very relevant any longer is one of the main reasons why as many people hesitated to pick it here. There was fine reason to think it was not at peak strength any longer. The Portal games performances in 2015 looked weaker than how the first one had performed previously and GLaDOS looked a good bit weaker in 2018 compared to 2013.

Then theres Red Dead Redemption 2, the upset most people went with today and clearly also the best one. The game released to universal appeal in 2018 and the franchise is probably at all time peak. If you look at the 2015 x-stats, the Portal games look no better than Red Dead Redemption. Yes, both Portal games were clouded by rallies from Melee and Undertale, but even so. It was reasonable enough to expect Portal to continue to decline and RDR2 to be stronger than the first one. You only needed one of the things to be a little bit true for the upset to look likely. In fact, Im sure more people would have picked RDR2 if the match had been more talked about. Most people probably looked at the match and thought it looked like something Portal would win on GameFAQs and didnt think more about it.

The match had a bit of early excitement. Portal 2 had the lead from the start but struggled to run away with it initially. People expected Portal 2 to have the bracket votes and its a big deal on board 8. On top of that, Rockstar games tend to not do so well with the board vote. The first Red Dead Redemption and GTAV had both made some decent comeback attempts later in the day, so maybe if RDR2 could keep it close early on, it stood a chance. It turned out Portal actually struggled the most initially and as end of the power hour drew near, it would take off and set the match in stone. Im guessing Red Dead Redemption actually had the most bracket votes, its likely only board 8 Portal 2 was the favorite on and even here it wasnt by that much.

Turns out Portal 2 didnt really decline or if it did, the Game of the Decade title kept it up again, perhaps even stronger than in 2015. Its been mentioned in Game of the Decade debates in a lot of places and perhaps that helped it out today. I still believe Red Dead Redemption 2 is stronger than the first game, it makes sense for it to be. The adjusted x-stats kept it below, but I disagree with some of the decisions regarding division 4. I think Xenoblade should have been adjusted down a bit and Persona 4s rallies and bandwagon effect certainly wasnt adjusted for as much as I believe it should. I hope and expect to see Red Dead Redemption 2 back again.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicYour First Thought 18:"the theoretical winner of 'Worst. Game. Ever.'"
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 5:28:37 AM
#81
I thought of Fallout 76 first, though it's definitely not my pick.

Zelda CDi is a good bet lol.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicSo uh why is Gen 2 'so good'?
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 5:23:01 AM
#57
I genuinely don't understand why returning to another region never happened again considering how popular it seemed to be.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 5:20:59 AM
#11
LOLIAmAnAlt posted...
Oh, I never played the others because the only Playstation console I owned was the PS2.

I mean, that console had another one of them too!

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 4:28:10 AM
#8
Yeah, same, he was perfect for they wanted to do here. He's not as cool as Snake no, but that was clearly the point of him.

I remember when we were having a Worst Character Ever contest and Allen used Raiden as an example of that. Like, what the hell, they accomplished exactly what they wanted with him.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 4:22:25 AM
#281
I considered characters and setting as things that contributed to the story, perhaps more than I should have, but I think part of writing a good story is writing good characters and placing them in a well-written setting.

I gave Majora's Mask some points because of it, I wouldn't have if I thought of it the same way most seemed to do.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic[BFVQE] Day 18: "Scar" -The Boss | "Friends" -GLaDOS
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 4:00:11 AM
#25
"Scar" - The Boss

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 3:45:15 AM
#260
Round 3 Division 6 Day 30
Persona 5 67.89%
Sonic Mania 32.11%

Prediction Percentage 63.69%

It was perfectly clear after this match what an awfully weak four-pack Sonic Mania came out of. The game clearly didnt belong in round 3. It did however serve the purpose of giving people hope that Persona 5 stood a chance to reach the semi-finals, which gave us some more fun in the latter half of the contest. Persona 5 had just the right opponents to look better than it possibly was in round 2 and 3 and it was second place in our GotY polls in 2017 on top of that, where everything looked to be stronger than expected. If its match in the division finals were ever in doubt, it definitely wasnt any longer.

Sonic Mania feels weird, honestly. If it wasnt a Sonic game, Im sure a lot of people would praise it a good bit more. Its a pretty fun game. I like to think of it is an equivalent to if Super Marios only good games post the 90s were New Super Mario Bros games. Theyd be enjoyed, but Mario overall wouldnt be the same because the newer games had nothing on the classic ones. Sonic Mania is probably stronger due to its name than it would have been without it. It would need to drop a lot to not reach this point, but Im sure it performed better because of Sonic still has an iconic status. I think its funny to think of what games our Noble Nine comes from and see where they are today, obviously not counting Smash Bros which features seven of them. A lot of them havent kept up the level, in fact only two of them has games as good as ever, but unlike most others, Sonic actually had a better Game of the Decade than the previous one where only Sonic Adventure 2 got in and somehow managed to lose to lose to Street Fighter IV. So hey, Sonic actually moves forward!

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 3:27:03 AM
#259
Round 3 Division 5 Day 29
Fallout: New Vegas 44.73%
God of War 55.27%

Prediction Percentage 48.88%

God of War was never going to lose this match, but Fallout: New Vegas wasnt the worst upset if you were desperate to find one. Fallout is traditionally a stronger series than God of War here. Judging from the Game of the Year polls however, the new God of War would be a good step above the others and its not like they were that bad. The first one did reasonably well in the first Game of the Decade. If would go to the division finals looking good enough to challenge a few division winner favorites, but The Witcher 3 had removed all hope of an upset.

This would have probably been closer if Bethesda didnt screw things up so badly in the latter half of the decade. New Vegas is by all means not the game to get screwed the most by that as the game was developed by Bethesda and made by a bunch of the same people working on Fallout 3, the series peak. It does however carry the name of a series that isnt exactly the most well liked in the eyes of people any longer. Fallout 4 wasnt too good and Fallout 76 flopped horribly. I dont think its a big enough difference to put God of War in danger, but the board vote indicates that it happened.

Its fun to think about whether or not therell be any Fallout in the next Game of the Decade. New Vegas is from 2010 and its the last one people truly enjoyed. The series is at a critical point at the moment and I doubt its the first thing Bethesda wants to fix. It might just be better to focus on Elder Scrolls and whatever else and new Ips before trying to follow up on Fallout again, if they ever should. Bethesda needs to regain some trust from the people before a new Fallout hits the market.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/08/20 3:12:02 AM
#6
I forgot to comment that I thought it was funny to have a couple be Jack and Rose a few years after Titanic.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 6:43:54 PM
#180
The story in FFX is as good as ever imo, in particular the ending, which is possibly my favorite moment in any video game.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 6:20:27 PM
#171
To be fair, the cast had a hard time with the lip synching.

I don't think they're bad, even today.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicSo can we all agree that the basement is the worst part of Mario 64?
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 6:19:06 PM
#48
The Utility Man posted...
I never tried Galaxy 2 as I didn't really like the first one that much.

I mean I loved them both, but Galaxy 2 is my favorite 3D Mario and the first one is probably the lowest except maybe Land and World.

In terms of gameplay though. It really nails atmosphere imo.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 4:59:36 PM
#150
FFX is fantastic and it's not the nostalgia googles talking. I didn't play it until many years later.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 4:58:37 PM
#5
I love in that fight how you can see all the RAYs in the background. You have no idea how long it goes on or if you're doing the right thing by just keep on attacking them.

LeonhartFour posted...
Snake can make an indirect reference to her if you call Otacon after beating Olga, which very clearly implies that their relationship didn't work out and they're no longer together. He'll say something like, "Meh, I've had enough of tomboys."

(or it'd make Snake look super ice cold to say that about Meryl if she were dead)

Interesting. That's really easy to miss.

The tanker intro is so cool, yes. So happy Smash took inspiration from it when doing the everyone is here bit.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicThe poll of the day results page now has two board links
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 4:01:05 PM
#5
That's pretty funny.

Today's poll is annoying, because my answer would be 21-25 I started with the SNES and Genesis.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicMGS2 was so far ahead of its time (replaying after 10+ years) *spoilers inside*
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 3:53:05 PM
#1
Favorite boss fight?






I've played through the game once more and I was completely blown away despite knowing everything that happened. It's incredible this game came out in 2001 and almost 20 years later, it's more relevant that it ever was. When I played the game many years ago, I ranked them MGS3 > MGS4 > MGS > MGS2 with quite a bit of confidence. I was moslty unsure on the middle two. I think that's still correct, but goddamn if I don't have my doubts now. They're all just so good. Those last parts of the game are crazy.

Here are my thoughts as I played through the game:

Tanker:

It's like they instantly realized Snake and Otacon were the best characters of the first game. If I didn't know better I'd probably think the canon ending of MGS1 was that Meryl died, because she's not mentioned at all.

The controls are more similar to the first one than I recalled for better or worse.

Dog Tags are a terrible collectable, fortunately they only matter for replays by damn, they're ass. Part of is it probably that the controls for doing it is outdated, I never enjoyed it though.

I'm playing the HD version on PS3 and that means I'll be collecting trophies for the first time. There's no way in hell I'm gonna attempt a platinum on this one though. It requires you to collect every single dog tag on every single difficulty, which is btw another reason that they suck.

The tanker part feels empty in that you don't have much equipment and items, but there are so much detail here. Lots of small gems to appreciate. Locker room fun, soldiers without pants, sending pictures to Otacon for fun reactions. There's more to it than it initially.

Olga is a fun boss fight, it's a shame she's the only one for this part of the game.

I'm still not very good at the game, but it leads to some fun times occasionally. Rolling straight into bombs attempting to crawl because I hadn't completely stopped moving it a recurring event.

At one point I was hiding in my box and they shot it for blood to splatter all over the wall behind it clearly blowing my cover, only for them to wander around not being able to find me. That was weird. Most of the time I get caught is attempting to "freeze" enemies. I feel like sometimes Snake just points the gun at them without saying it and then they turn to punch me. I've looked into this and I don't know what's wrong.

Puppet master Ocelot being way too arrogant yet everything works his way.

I would've really liked another boss fight on the tanker, but oh well.

Plant:

I never had a problem with Raiden. I also knew ahead of playing that it would happen, but I think he's a good character that does exactly like he was supposed to. Be as confused about the crazy things going on as the player is and show Snake from a different point of view. I like him.

The early parts of this one are pretty similar, it takes a bit to get going. The Plant rooms are not all the different from each other.

Snake taking a nab right after you meet him is hillarious.

Vamp is awful and I also never liked Fortune very much.

Finding the bombs is a fun break from the usual stuff you're doing. Some of them are fun to find especially with hints given.

I died once because I found the socom supressor, but forgot to actually use it, then everyone heard me while I shot one of the others.

Fatman is a surprisingly good boss fight from a gamplay kind of perspective. Though the game also lacks those. It's probably the point where the game picks up.

They really went out of their way to make sure you would disguise yourself in only one part of the game, because it makes no sense that the AK is a shell 1 core specific weapon. It also makes no sense Raiden loses the clothes walking into someone of course.

Rose is awful. It becomes better later on when we learn what's going on, but at this point of the game, you just hate her for having no sense of situation.

Destroying all the bombs on the bridge and then fight the harrier with help from Snake and Otacon is a really cool place. Raiden really gets screwed by the chopper fighting.

I fell into the water a bit too many times to not be embarrassed.

Ocelot manages to confuse every damn time he appears. He just shoots the president and leaves you be. That seems so weird at the time.

From the point you meet Emma is when the game starts really showing off. Her part of the game is so short lived, but in the small amount of time you still feel attached to her. The sniping part is fun although once again, Vamp is awful and being the reason Emma dies doesn't help. Emma's death is handled really well, though it's a bit weird when Otacon explains his relationship to his stepmother. "Don't be so honest. It... hurts..." is a fantastic line. Otacan not calling her Emma before she dies is heartbreaking and the bro moment Snake and Otacon have not long afterward is fantastic. It's such a good small part of the game, even when you know wh
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 3:07:45 PM
#258
Round 3 Division 5 Day 29
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 60.60%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%

Prediction Percentage 65.39%

This is one of those matches where both games manage to look impressive magically. The Witcher 3 once again proved it was not going to have any trouble anytime soon. A few people feared a Nintendo game would run wild where they were kept out, similar to what Super Mario RPG did in 2015 and Galaxy 2 was an obvious candidate. It didnt get close. The Witcher 3 showed its mortality, but still broke 60% against a huge fan favorite game that is often depicted as the 3D Mario of best level design.

At the same time it was the first time it was down to earth, and its probably what kept people believing it could be upset by Persona 5 or Dark Souls, although it was probably more often than not that people just wanted to see it happen. Super Mario Galaxy 2 would need to have boosted since 2015 where it was fine but nothing spectacular, otherwise The Witcher 3 might be in trouble later on. Given how the first two rounds went, no one really doubted both boosted. Ironically it was right next to The Witcher 3 in the x-stats back then, which just proves how much stronger The Witcher 3 has become.

Super Mario Galaxy 2 is criminally underrated in its seeding. In pure strength its most likely a #1 seed, the x-stats suggest this, even after adjustments. Its also even more unfortunate by not being placed in an eight pack it could upset out of. It would scare most #1 seeds more than this and outright beat some of them. It would beat every single #2 seed and #3 seed except most likely fellow Mario game Super Mario Odyssey. Marios punishment for once again being set up as a contest villain in 2018 was perhaps the most ridiculously unfair bracket placement of a franchise ever.

Regardless of that it makes me happy to see Super Mario Galaxy 2 get the respect it deserves when we look at contest stats in the end. Although it feels like a late 00s game, it came out in this decade and its my favorite Game of the Decade by a decent margin. It perfects 3D platformers and the few games of all time that I believe I like better are all really hard to compare to because theyre so different from it. I could spend a lot of time praising the game, but theres not much contest analysis in that.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 2:27:42 PM
#257
Round 3 Division 4 Day 28
Xenoblade Chronicles 59.64%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 40.36%

Prediction Percentage 16.7%

Only the people insisting on sticking to their bracket, or the people having a lot of faith in a specific type of Nintendo hierarchy thought Fire Emblem: Three Houses still stood a chance in this match. The board 8 favorite to make top 8 lost big time today and mass eliminated gurus. Despite Xenoblade Chronicles looking vastly superior for two straight rounds, oracles still thought it would win by significantly less. Xenoblade went from just being praised and given a chance to go far to people now supporting the idea of it actually being a top 8 game here and not just being fortunate to get there because of being in an easy division. That claim is also helped by Xenoblade being a board 8 darling, but this really did seem like a performance of that caliber.

Its hard to judge. This match could very easily have some SFF influencing the result, but while we have a lot of data on how some of the biggest Nintendo series, Zelda, Mario, Smash and Metroid, affect each other, we have nothing when it comes to Xenoblade and Fire Emblem. Pokemon seemingly not being hurt by Nintendo SFF as much proves that its not necessarily a hierarchy question. The easiest way to compare these two is exactly what made Three Houses the overwhelming board favorite to begin with. Xenoblade and Fire Emblem: Awakening shared an opponent in 2015 and lost by basically the same amount. Three Houses was expected to be a good bit stronger than Awakening as it was the bigger release and the console game.

Im having my doubts about that though. Awakening was a long-awaited breakthrough for the franchise and saved it certain death and it came out in what was arguably the biggest year of the 3DS. Three Houses however did not have that savoir role. Instead it got a villains role by providing a character as the final character of the first Smash Ultimate fighters pass which otherwise consisted of only third-party stuff. A blue haired swordsman on top of it. I dont really think theres much of a difference in strength between Awakening and Three Houses, and Im not even sure Three Houses is the stronger one. If you think it is, its definitely not a belief you should think is certain.

Theres simply a limit of how much I think Xenoblade can have boosted as well. It had its Smash exposure and the definite edition was still on the horizon. Time and a bit more exposure could definitely help the game, I absolutely think its stronger and I really love that it is, but there has to be a limit. I believe it had some good opponents in the first three rounds to look good against. It would go to the division finals as the major favorite.

Three Houses was probably SFFd a bit, but most of all we just overestimated it a lot this contest. Its popular opinion that Fire Emblem is the turd of the contest, but they lost to two of the games that boosted the absolute most between contests and when we look at the end of the contest, Awakening doesnt look particularly worse and Three Houses just isnt as much stronger than it as we thought it would be.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 2:04:39 PM
#255
Round 3 Division 4 Day 28
Grand Theft Auto V 48.93%
Persona 4 Golden 51.07%

Prediction Percentage 14.01%

This match would be the final match of the contest where the consensus of what game won going into the match would not be the correct one. Grand Theft Auto V was expected to win this match because Red Dead Redemption had almost beaten Persona 4 Golden and GTAV was expected to be better. Others were thinking that they wouldnt perform too differently indirectly against something like a Persona game and that Persona 4 Golden would win again because of it, but GTAV was the popular pick today.

The match had some similar trends to the previous edition of Persona 4 Golden takes on a Rockstar game. Persona would win the board vote, but then not really get very far. GTAV actually did better than Red Dead Redemption did at that point, probably because it had more bracket votes. Persona was 45 votes ahead and the freeze and the match stood still for a couple of updates after that, then Persona took off, and it was a good bit faster than it was against Red Dead Redemption, indicating that perhaps GTAV won the board vote, at least relative to the rest of the match.

Persona 4 took off a lot faster than the first time once it got going, though GTAV would cut and stall a bit. Once Persona 4 had neared in on about 400 votes, GTAV would make a fine comeback attempt by cutting a bit more than 100 votes off in an hour, but it didnt go further than that and Persona 4 descended once more. The final attempt from GTAV came when had just passed the 600-vote lead. GTAV would stall for a while and then make a run for it with plenty of time to go. It managed to cut off about 200 votes this time, but it made less and less progress every hour and eventually time was running out and Persona 4 began gaining again and won by almost 600 votes, making GTAV lose by more than Red Dead Redemption did.

It was never truly exciting and despite the comeback hours, no one really doubted Persona 4 would win once the match was on. The last round taught us that. If it came down to it, Board 8 would definitely bail out Persona 4 once more. Not many believed it stood a chance in the division finals, though wed learn it absolutely did.

I am not doubting that Persona 4 was stronger in round 3 than round 2. It does not necessarily mean Persona 4 would have lost to GTAV in round 2, but I think a lot of us were too quick to just accept that Red Dead Redemption was the stronger Rockstar game. It had definitely caught a bandwagon in the next round, and I think it begun already here. Im not saying its impossible Red Dead Redemption is the stronger one, but I dont think their matches against a game that clearly boosted by beating them settles any debate, and theres just more reason to think GTAV is the stronger game. Its the bigger franchise even on this site, and it was significantly stronger last time too.

Well probably never know for sure, because this is the best chance well ever have of two Rockstar games meeting, and hey, this is the furthest a Grand Theft Auto game has ever gone in a contest, although Tommy Vercetti has also managed round 3 before, which was top 16 and not top 32 because of a smaller field. Its the first #1 seed to fall and the only one that doesnt fall to the others, but that hardly makes it a flop in my opinion. GTAV might have been the favorite to the division finals, but thats because people didnt expect Persona 4 Golden to be a perfect Persona 4 proxy and thought it would be hurt from being a Vita port of a 2008 game. Beating Cuphead so easily when a lot of people were scared it could drop then was what it needed to do to not embarrass itself relative to the site were on.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicIf you're playing Xenoblade for the first time post here
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 12:18:54 PM
#159
I wasn't actually planning on doing everything, but this nice new quest system makes it so satisfying.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicSelect (3)DS and Wii (U) games 2 for 20 at gamestop's website
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 11:19:35 AM
#17
I enjoyed all the ranger games. I didn't think they were that different.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicYour First Thought 17: "strongest game that's never been in a contest"
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 8:23:31 AM
#38
Final Fantasy VII Remake

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicGame of the Decade of the Year ROUND 2: Division 14 vs. Division 19 [GotDotY]
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 7:59:37 AM
#29
5- A Hat in Time
0-- Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair

5-- Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker
0-- Journey

0-- Super Meat Boy
5-- Dark Souls 2

5-- Devil May Cry 5
0-- The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword

0-- Borderlands 2
5-- Pokemon Black 2/White 2

5-- Hyrule Warriors
0-- Hollow Knight

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic[BFVQE]Day 16: "Immortal Machine" -SHODAN | "Sharks" -GLaDOS
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 5:07:14 AM
#33
Sharks

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicGame of Thrones - How satisfied were you with the ending? [BEE Week 2]
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 4:47:54 AM
#38
Ngamer64 posted...
This is a little harsh for my taste. I'll admit I was upset when it looked like they were setting up the sisters to be at each other's throats, but when it turned out they were just tricking Littlefinger to fall into their trap, that was okay. Alright, it was also weird when she didn't tell Jon her plan before the Battle of the Bastards. Aside from that though she was pretty on the money- right about needing to store up food for the long winter, right about not trusting Dany, right about needing to give the armies a short rest before marching on King's Landing, and so forth.

Maybe that part is more an issue with Littlefinger than Sansa, but I didn't enjoy that part at all. The issue probably started when Littlefinger gave Sansa to Ramsay which is a good contender for absolute stupidest plot element, so it was likely a lost cause by then. She was suddenly just arrogant and confident in everything she did. Her path from naive little girl to that was basically just a lot disaster and then she was the smartest surviving them.

Right about not trusting Dany is misleading, because Dany lost Viserion, Jorah, Rhaegal and Missandei in addition to being betrayed by Varys after Sansa started thinking that. She had basically made her mind up about Dany from the start and it ended up being correct, but she might very well have been part of what pushed her there.

That process included Sansa telling a lie in front of the godswood in Wintetfell, when she swore Jon not to tell and then told Tyrion instantly afterwards. Not only was that awful to her step brother to begin with, it's literally the worst thing you can do as a person from the North. I know it's probably another "kin of forgot" bit from the show runners, but it's a terrible crime and her becoming queen of the North right afterwards is just further insulting.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/07/20 4:26:59 AM
#126
I might have considered Life is Strange if it kept the quality the whole way through, depending on how they finished it.

Final Fantasy VII deserves a mention at the top every such list, especially when you consider its influence as a whole.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicPlaying Metal Gear Solid for the first time in like 10 years (spoilers I guess)
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 6:31:01 PM
#53
I think I'll do another topic tomorrow because I'm actually stunned at how well the story of MGS2 is constructed and I'm completely taken back by how far ahead of its time this game was, it's incredible. I want to give that extra attention. Don't get me wrong, I loved the game when I played it first forever ago, but I didn't appreciate it as much then.

Man, there's a lot to unpack.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicJust beat LoZ:BotW. *SPOILERS*
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 6:24:14 PM
#27
Yeah, I understand not enjoying these things even if I don't share the opinion. It's just frustrating when people that didn't like their game extend criticism to things that literally aren't true. I don't believe some critiques are more warranted that others though, as long as whatever thing you don't like is actually a thing.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicJust beat LoZ:BotW. *SPOILERS*
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 4:18:57 PM
#16
The extra range or the ability to use a shield makes a difference. Enemy speed and ability makes a difference in what type of weapon is best to use too. Yes, you can power through the game with mostly everything, but that doesn't mean it's the same.

I don't mind if people didn't enjoy some of the mechanics, but stop trying to talk it's fact that there's less detail in them because you didn't enjoy them. That's needlessly annoying. And if you're actually serious about 99% of your weapons breaking against the first enemy you used them against, then you went against too strong stuff and that's a fault on you and not the game.

HaRRicH posted...
and lightning is a problem in general.

I hated it at first, but once I understood how it worked and could prepare, I thought it was a cool thing. I get not liking it though.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicBoard 8's Top 60 Stories in Gaming - Results Topic Part 2
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 12:24:06 PM
#52
Tag

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicYour First Thought 16: "how did this get into Game of the Decade 2?"
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 11:06:08 AM
#57
Persona 4 Golden

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 10:04:26 AM
#253
Round 3 Division 3 Day 27
Shovel Knight 27.19%
Super Mario Odyssey 73.81%

Prediction Percentage 51.49%

This is one of the most boring matches in the contest as Super Mario Odyssey was always going to win very easily and the match cant even be used as a good indicator for anything because of possible overlap between these two games that may or may not be there. Shovel Knight gets the honor of being the only indie game to get this far in the contest, which is something. Its not necessarily the strongest, most people seem to think that honor goes to Cuphead or Stardew Valley. Shovel Knight would end up below several layers of SFF, so its hard to determine.

One interesting this about this match is the lack of a rally. Everyone remembers when the creators of Shovel Knight, Yacht Club Games, tweeted about the match against Octopath Traveler making Shovel Knight win a battle of rallies. The comments to that tweet pointed out that Super Mario Odyssey was ahead and correctly recognized that it would be a tough match. Yacht Club Games responded to that saying We cant give up! Not even if pitted against our beloved mustachioed main man!. They made it pretty clear they were going to attempt once more.

Did anyone expect it make the match interesting? No, of course not. The gap was way too big and the affect of the tweet had already slowed down a good bit by the end of the previous match despite coming up with an hour to go. I did however expect them to try and cut off a significant chunk of percentage and finished somewhere between 30% and 40%. They seemed dedicated, but nope, they never tweeted about the match. I dont know if they simply forgot, it would be my best bet. No one cared to remind them because why would we, it wouldnt matter. Even if it had made no difference, it sure was anticlimactic.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 9:49:51 AM
#252
Round 3 Division 3 Day 27
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 63.61%
Marvels Spider-Man 36.39%

Prediction Percentage 52.13%

This match seemed to be the main reason why Super Mario Odyssey > Super Smash Bros. Ultimate became such a popular upset pick in second chance brackets despite almost everyone picking Ultimate without thinking twice about it beforehand. The reason is that people had such a hard time believing Marvels Spider-Man to have any strength, especially after it meant Minecraft would have to have strength itself.

Ultimate would go into the division finals as the favorite, by not nearly as big a favorite as it was before the contest began. The popular opinion was that Super Mario Odyssey looked better every single round. Most people knew it wouldnt come down to that however and its probably why Ultimate still remained the favorite. That match would ultimately come down to preferences within the Nintendo fanbase.

In the end we also learned Marvels Spider-Man is legit! Just like the Batman games. I honestly dont understand why that was so hard to accept. It was very successful and well-liked. It might not be the favorite games of a lot of people but that doesnt mean it cant be strong. It looked good enough in the Game of the Year polls, beating Dragon Quest XI and Red Dead Redemption 2 while losing to God of War. Sure, such a poll is not the best indicator, but a lot of the same people took God of Wars result that year at face value. It might have gotten a 1v1 result, but its pretty clear Spider-Man validated what it did then. Unfortunately, it had a very predictable bracket path, but it could have damaged good brackets if placed elsewhere. Its like that with a lot of games.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicGame of the Decade of the Year ROUND 2: Division 15 vs. Division 10 [GotDotY]
ctesjbuvf
06/06/20 9:23:47 AM
#28
0-- Dishonored
5-- Pokemon GO

5-- New Super Mario Bros. U
0-- Pac-Man Championship Edition DX

2-- Prey (2017)
3-- Persona 4 Golden

5-- Final Fantasy XIII
0-- Untitled Goose Game

0-- CrossCode
5-- Jackbox Party Pack 3

2-- Halo: Reach
3-- Bloodborne

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicGame of Thrones - How satisfied were you with the ending? [BEE Week 2]
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 8:25:25 PM
#24
It is beyond me how anyone can accept Littlefinger's ending. Doesn't matter what he deserved or didn't deserve.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicDo You Think Mario 64 Has Aged Well?
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 12:55:16 PM
#34
It's not as fun as it used to be and the camera is a big part of that.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 8:05:31 AM
#250
IIRC it was still possible to vote in them, somehow, perhaps maybe just at first? I seem to remember people talking about their oracle predictions, but maybe I should look at the archives to be certain.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 7:23:10 AM
#248
It was a bumpy road down to take the lead, but it was the same thing when it was building a lead early on, so it all seemed fine. Bloodborne would stall or win some updates, but everything was going in the direction Resident Evil 2 wanted. North America was beginning to wake up as well. But Bloodborne was hanging on somehow. Resident Evil 2 removed 100 votes off the lead a lot faster than it neared in on the lead and when it finally got close, Bloodborne didnt let it happen. Bloodborne was down to a 9-vote lead and everyone expected Resident Evil 2 to take the lead, but it didnt, instead Bloodborne gained and Resident Evil 2 had to cut some more. Then Bloodborne had a 3-vote lead and the exact same thing happens.

Finally, Resident Evil 2 takes the lead with a single vote and extends it to 21 the next update, but Bloodborne still refused to give up. It cut and took the lead again. Resident Evil 2 took it back quickly but couldnt get anywhere with it and soon we had the second tie of the match before Resident Evil 2 took the lead again with a mere 4 votes. Everyone had so safe in a Resident Evil 2 victory a short while ago, but for whatever reason, it couldnt run away with the lead like we thought it would.

The match was exciting for literally every single remaining update except possibly the last very few. It was worth checking in at any point. For the next five hours, Resident Evil 2 would have the lead at any point, but its lead would never be bigger than 62 at its best point and would be as low as 4 votes. It seemed like everything could happen. It became more and more apparent that Resident Evil 2 would not run away with it, despite all of North America being awake again and despite the rallies being removed. This was a great match in itself but remember that all the controversy of the poll delay was being discussed the whole day too. It gave a crazy and nostalgic feel. One side was arguing that Resident Evil 2 was the one hit by it, because the GameFAQs core favored it and at any time of the matches people were coming in surprised to see the matches actually being up, which suggested that some people never came back to see it. On the other hand, Bloodborne might have teared things apart with its rallies for a longer time if the match wasnt 2+ hours short of a full 24.

With less than three hours to go, Bloodborne took the lead again, it was only by 4 votes, but it really highlighted that it was anyones game. There didnt appear to be any trends to favor either game, we seemingly just had three hours of nail biting ahead of us. Over the first of those three hours, Resident Evil 2 made another attempt to build something, but it didnt get anywhere, and Bloodborne removed it again. Then the tables turned. For many hours Bloodborne had been the game desperately hanging on, but now it took the lead and actually kept it a bit. Resident Evil 2 was the one desperately hanging on now. Bloodborne couldnt get anywhere, but when Resident Evil 2 almost had the lead, Bloodborne ran away. This continued for most of the remainder of the match, until the match had its third and final tie with only 25 minutes to go and thats as much of a photo finish match as you can ask for.

The match wasnt just good on paper either. This was a match where people had stronger feelings than in the other close matches so far. Most people had a clear favorite today. It wasnt Mario vs. Crono levels of board explosion, were probably too old for that now, but it still had FFDragon seemingly needing a Resident Evil 2 victory for mental reasons and it all fueled the atmosphere with excitement.

The match would perhaps anti-climactically end with Resident Evil 2 winning by 88 votes, a bigger lead than it had at any point ever since the Bloodborne rallies were active, but I dont think anyone felt truly safe until it was over. The second to last update had Resident Evil 2 rise from 39 to 59 and Im sure that basically sealed the deal in the eyes of many, but this match had been so crazy that we needed to look and poll and look at the next matches starting.

What happened there in the end then? How did Resident Evil 2 suddenly take it so easily when it couldnt get anywhere for many hours? Its not something it seemed like everyone could agree on, but the short answer is most likely that the board favored Resident Evil 2. That absolutely matters in photo finishes like this one. Resident Evil 2 was the game that a majority were ready to go out and rally anybody for. When its this close everything matters. People texting their friends to vote and such. It looked like every single vote could make a difference and so such things happened. Its the best explanation. The 88 votes seem like a lot, but if it enough people were doing it, or if the people doing it was just effective enough, it decided the match. I think Resident Evil 2 having the greater support from the people following the match to the end is what decided things here.

The post-match explosion wasnt very big and its a large reason as to why this match doesnt get close to contending for greatest match ever despite being fantastic. Once it was over, we quickly moved on. The game the board felt should win managed to win. You could argue that Bloodborne was more deserving of a top 16 spot in a Game of the Decade contest. You could argue that it was hurt more by the downtime. You might be right in both cases, but the board was pleased with the victory. In a match without rallies and without downtime, it seemed clear this would have been the result and that means it was pretty widely accepted.

I dont think Resident Evil 2 gained much momentum from winning this match, as Bloodborne likely would have. It would not enter the division finals as the favorite, but most people thought it had a chance of pulling the upset. If there was any doubt prior to this match about whether it was hurt by being a remake, it was perfectly clear now that it wasnt. It might not win without the remake of Resident Evil 3 releasing mid contest, but for a well-established game and franchise I also think its possible it didnt make a difference. Bloodborne being this legit even without rallies also helped fuel the Dark Souls > Skyrim upset hype that had been growing throughout the contest.

Despite all the controversy in this match, it was a ride, it was enjoyable, and you can hate rallies as much as you like, but we need matches like this every now and then, so lets enjoy the ones we get, regardless of how things went down and who you rooted for. This rally wasnt contest breaking and it wouldnt have changed more than two matches at best if they werent removed mid-match. The delay is unfortunate but screw that too. It was part of the reason as to why this match felt so great to follow and reminded us of the days where the contests peaked.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 7:22:41 AM
#247
Round 3 Division 2 Day 26
Resident Evil 2 50.16%
Bloodborne 49.84%

Prediction Percentage 32.58%

Today was a very hyped match, because while Resident Evil 2 was the clear favorite before the contest began, Bloodborne had showed itself capable of successfully rallying, even while being in front, and that made a good amount of people take Bloodborne instead. The match would end up being the most memorable match in the contest because it had everything. Resident Evil 2 won in the end, giving us the division final we expected, but Bloodborne sure made it seem like there was no nope at time.

Everyone was ready to cast in their votes when the match came up, but once the clock hit the matches didnt change. This technically affected four matches. The division 1 ones were running late and there was another match also being delayed, but none of those results were affected by this at all and probably ended almost the exact the same way. This one however became very controversial because of it. Everyone was looking intensely at the match in the beginning, but we quickly paid less attention as it became clear it wasnt just a small delay. After a while, people expected it to simply not start for another day. Two hours passed without the polls going up, as it broke the record Sonic vs. Samus had all the way back in 2002.

Unless the match ended up not being close at all, there was no longer any way this one would feel legit to everyone, and spoilers, it did end up being close as excitement was there down to the final updates. Its ironic how many of the times weve had poll delays, it ends it a wire to wire match. This match was one of only two of the contest to come down to the last seconds, although a third one came close too. Sonic vs. Samus was also incredibly close. Jill Valentine vs. Ryu Hayabusa was eventually reset and was very close both times. Link vs. Draven wasnt delayed but still had downtime hours and a lot of people believe it flipped the result. Mario vs. Crono was started early and wasnt ended after 24 hours. If we had the votals we used to have, this one would absolutely go down as an all time classic that wed be talking about for years to come.

It turned out the poll delay was due to a glitch caused by now having two matches a day instead of four. Its a huge shame, especially because it would hurt our already bad votals for not just this day but also seemingly days to come. Its what happens. Its a shame, but its fair. The decision to not run the matches the following day and have them run for a full 24 hours is a lot more controversial. It would have been the right thing to do, but Im sure Allen thought it was an equal disadvantage for both games. Board 8 seemed to think it would harm Resident Evil 2 the most, as it was expected to be able to build a good lead before Bloodborne inevitably rallied and began cutting. Its tough to call because Bloodborne wasnt able to put up a thread on time either. The belief that it didnt change the outcome was nave though, but Im thinking Allen hoped it wouldnt end up as close as it did. No one would have minded if this had happened one of the many days where we had a group of matches that werent exciting to follow at all. The easy way out would be to just have a day off, but I suppose Allen wanted everything else to be on schedule.

In any case, the match began surprisingly about two hours and ten minutes later than intended. Bloodborne won the board vote in big fashion, which might seem surprising considering Resident Evil 2 is better here than most places and that most of the board had it in their brackets, but its likely the delay at work. We didnt make out as many of the early votes as we usually do and the votals at the freeze were generally lower to confirm this, but the word quickly spread to everyone that stayed around.

Bloodbornes lead wasnt huge either. It was ahead in the opening minutes and kept it until the freeze, but it was never a lot, and everyone correctly expected Resident Evil 2 to run away with it from there. True enough, the lead change happened at the next update and Resident Evil 2 would slowly build a lead from there. It wasnt too easy though. While Resident Evil 2 was clearly stronger on natural strength, Bloodborne was already proving itself once more. As much as the board liked to criticize Fire Emblem this contest, Awakening no longer looked so bad. Its possible Bloodborne had some momentum going into the round, but it would have won the previous match regardless, so any bandwagon was probably not there, though it might pick it up if it won today.

Fast forward about four hours and Resident Evil 2 has expected its lead to near 400 votes. A good amount that would give it some buffer if the rallied came, but not enough for anyone to feel safe. The biggest lead of the entire match would be a lead of 390 in this time. This was deep into the night hours and Resident Evil 2 suddenly had a tough time extending its lead any further. It seemed to be geography at work. Resident Evil 2 was doing better in the now mostly sleeping North America, while Bloodborne was doing better in Europe. For a while the match stalled around a 350-vote lead for Resident Evil 2.

This is when the Bloodborne rallies started mattering. They came late because of the poll delay, but they came, and they started gaining traction now. Bloodborne cut off about 100 votes in an hour and gaining traction at the same time. Things went even faster in the next hour where Bloodborne removed 200 votes instead. With 14 hours to go, Bloodborne was only 47 votes behind and had a super powerful rally behind it. It looked over at this point.

People were trying to get similar rallies for Resident Evil 2, but it proved a lot more difficult. Not only could they not gain the same kind of traction, but it seemed like the Resident Evil forums were a lot more split on the match and seemed to like both things. The Bloodborne forums, however, were a lot more passionate about their game and it showed. Two updates later the match had the first tie of the match and the Bloodborne went up. The hour that started with Resident Evil 2 being 47 votes ahead ended with Bloodborne being 176 ahead. A fair share of people stopped paying attention. It seemed like counter-rallying was impossible and that Bloodborne would only extend its lead. We had seen Bloodborne capable of successfully rallying when ahead, so it was expected that it would only keep gaining from here and end up winning the match easily. It was reasonable at this point to think Bloodborne would keep it up, gain momentum, win the division and lose to Breath of the Wild, because there are some things a rally of this caliber can not do.

Then the match took a big swing. The Bloodborne subreddit chose to disallow rally threads and removed the successful one that was already there. At least one of the mods there took that decision and that person is the main reason Bloodborne ends up losing. If he had just kept it there a little while longer, it might have ended differently. If he didnt remove it at all, Bloodborne obviously wins no doubt. Even if they disallowed them moving forward, Mass Effect 2 vs. Bloodborne might have been a really good match, because again, no doubt Bloodborne bandwagons from here if it pulled it off. The fans might very well have found other places to rally in the meantime, because again, theyre very passionate about their game.

Those are all what-if things. What happened is that the Bloodborne rallies were removed and Resident Evil 2 was suddenly in the match accord to no doing of its own. Natural trends were in Resident Evil 2s favor and it started slowly cutting right away as you expect. From one moment to the next, people went from thinking Bloodborne was a lock to win to thinking Resident Evil 2 was a lock to win it.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicSmash Ultimate Fighting League: Results and Discussion Topic
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 3:38:30 AM
#47
LeonhartFour posted...
Nobody went 5-0 today. Heck, Tom Bombadil was the only person to go 4-1

Then I'll take my 3-2 with pride.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicGame of the Decade of the Year ROUND 2: Division 13 vs. Division 7 [GotDotY]
ctesjbuvf
06/05/20 3:35:36 AM
#22
0-- South Park: The Stick of Truth
5-- Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch

5-- Donkey Kong Country Returns
0-- Divinity: Original Sin II

5-- God of War
0-- Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors

2-- Hitman 2
3-- Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance

5-- Pokemon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire
0-- Disco Elysium

5-- Bioshock 2
0-- Bastion

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
TopicYour First Thought 14: "a joke that stopped being funny"
ctesjbuvf
06/04/20 4:02:16 PM
#54
WCC

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/04/20 1:55:31 PM
#246
It's mostly a small detail I want to add or a formulation I think could be better It's not very important but I still want to do it once I'm done.

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Topic~~ Ctes' Post-Contest Analysis (PCA) ~~
ctesjbuvf
06/04/20 12:30:29 PM
#244
Updated list of write-ups I have changes to

DOOM vs. Inside
Undertale vs. Octopath Traveler
Super Mario Odyssey vs. Mortal Kombat 11
Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest
Yakuza 0 vs. The Witness
BioShock Infinite vs. Terraria
Uncharted 4: A Theif's End vs. Mario Kart 8
Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4
Fire Emblem: Awakening vs. Bloodborne

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc, the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
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