Lurker > Suprak the Stud

Level 1: Ravens

Bonus: 5
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nrrr posted...

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1192983130522767361

ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

1) This has a 0% chance of happening
2) if it did its only a good thing because shed get 0% of Bernies voters, 1% of Warrens voters, and 50% of Bidens voters.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I look forward to republicans reposting that to talk about how Clinton is a reasonable democrat after years of demonizing her as the literal antichrist.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1077916?__twitter_impression=true

Well this is gonna be a mess now

(I think Sessions godstomps the primary and general fwiw)

Yeah I dont know what mess youre talking about. Sessions wins both the primary and General with like 65%+ of the vote.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I didnt throw VA, CA, NY, IL, or NJ in there but they could be good for Biden too.

The other seven I listed will be great for him.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Biden wins most elder whites, almost all elderly minority voters
Warren wins white liberals, "Liberal elites"
Bernie wins youth, working class/union voters
Buttigieg wins rich whites, moderates

There's obviously a smattering of overlap, but each candidate is winning the majority of their "base".

EDIT: For Pete, divide everything by 75, he's getting a smattering total, and it's absolutely nuts he thinks it's "Me vs Warren".

Match this up against the demos of the states, and I'm guessing you have the 2020 primary results.

Thoughts?

I think that's fairly representative, although Biden gets most middle age black voters as well.

I also think there will be some melding between Bernie and Warren after Super Tuesday at the latest, hopefully. And yeah Mayor Pete's six delegates won't matter that much but just so he feels good we can throw him in there too!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Hm more not great news:

Alabama - March 3 (only four primaries before it)
Mississippi - March 10 (next big group of states after Super Tuesday)
South Carolina - February 29
Georgia - March 24
Tennessee - March 3
Arkansas - March 3
Florida - March 17

That is a very front loaded favorable schedule for Biden.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Looking into this a bit more, there are roughly 7 delegate rich states that Biden has the potential to run up obscene numbers on depending on the size of the field.

Alabama
Mississippi
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Arkansas
Florida

These are all states that Hillary but 65%+ on Sanders when it was just a choice between the two.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

In the last 10 polls of SC, Warren gets over 15% 6/10 times. Bernie does 1/10. I do think that after Iowa/NH there will be some consolidation between those two (especially if Warren does worse than expected) so it isn't a huge concern. But there could be some weird scenario where those two split the first two states and then the field is still big enough that Biden is the only one cracking 15% and then we have a real problem.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Can someone who knows the numbers tell me how many delegates Biden would be ahead assuming no one wins a plurality in IA and NH, but Biden destroys in SC?

The polling for Iowa is close to a tie, but lets say best case scenario (for now) is either Warren or Bernie gets two more delegates than Biden (if we have a 20-19-18-17 scenario that is sort of likely as Iowa has 41 delegates that will be assigned proportionally so there aren't that many extra delegates to pick up if it is even semi-close).

New Hampshire is even worse as there are only 24 delegates. Warren currents has 25% as the rcp average while Biden has 21%. So again, if we want to be generous we can say she gets another +2 compared to Biden.

So she's maybe +4 over Biden if we go with your assumption that it is relatively close between the two states.

South Carolina gets 54 delegates. Interesting thing about SC is there isn't enough polling yet, but Biden has been polling around 35-40% while the only one that cracks 15% is Warren at around 15.5% (rcp polling average). Now, you need at least 15% to get delegates so there is a nightmare scenario where Biden gets 100% of the delegates there and winds up way ahead of everyone else. I would think by that time that either Warren/Sanders can get above 15% hopefully but who knows. So if Biden completely destroys SC (I'd say not likely but again, nightmare scenario), he could be up +50 over Warren assuming he keeps the first two states close. If Warren (or Sanders) does get to say 20% or so while Biden gets 40% (much more likely) and no other candidate gets to 15%, then Biden would get 2:1 allocation of delegates there. So 36 - 18. So he'd be +18 and around +14 after the first three states. If both Sanders and Warren got around 15% or so and Biden gets 40%, then it'd be around the same. Biden would get around 30, both of the others would get 12, and Biden would still come out +18.

Again these are rough averages. But using your guess of close in NH/Iowa and Biden runs up the score in SC, you'd get -

Nightmare scenario - Biden up +50
More realistic scenario (assuming your guesses are correct) - Biden +14

Basically we just need either Sanders or Warren to put up at least 15 percent and they are still in really good shape. Just need them to do well enough that Biden doesn't wind up gobbling up all those delegates because that would be incredibly rough.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I wonder if it worries anyone that Biden's best states appear to be states that he has 0 chance to win in the general.

It worked out well for Hillary in 2016 oh wait

But yeah, it is going to come down really to who performs best in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania out of those three that is truly the "most electable".
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah Iowa and New Hampshire dont look great for Joe. Hell very likely win SC and is currently ahead in Nevada, though.

Very fortunate for Warren/Bernie/Pete that the first two states are extremely white!

edit: lost a dont while rewriting that sentence; whoops!

He's going to win SC by a lot, yeah. Essentially any liberal/moderate state that has a higher percentage of white voters he's going to struggle in. His core base is absolutely black voters and older moderate democrats so I expect him to clean up in the south and states like WV, Wyoming, etc. I think those first two states are going to be really important to the "not Joe Biden" candidate, whoever that winds up being, and I feel like if someone can sweep the first two states they have a decent chance against Biden.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Second consecutive poll I've seen with Biden in fourth in Iowa:

https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647

(Again, MoE makes this close to a four way tie)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Imagine being the literal president of the United States and still feeling so insecure that you feel the need to be validated for every single thing you say or do.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

MysteriousStan posted...

At this point, I'd take a 6th rounder in Minshew over the QB my team drafted #2 overall and who is actively holding the team back. =/

Stop my heart can only break so much.

Leonhart4 posted...

MysteriousStan posted...

At this point, I'd take a 6th rounder in Minshew over the QB my team drafted #2 overall and who is actively holding the team back. =/

Maybe you could trade with the Panthers and send him back to North Carolina...!

If Cam Newton had his foot amputated tomorrow, Carolina would still be crazy to trade him for Mitch "titty kisser" Trubisky. Just wheel Cam out there and take your chances.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

What another great election night for democrats!

You almost never get sick of all this winning.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

And yeah this is fun and all but McConnell has a weaker opponent who just lost a Kentucky house race in what was supposed to be a competitive district in a wave election year. Hes been hugely unpopular for years and hes still won by double digits. Hes the most powerful member of the senate.

Hes not going to lose, sadly.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Some video of what Tony was referencing:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1191894907801214977?s=21
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Foles was also memed to death during their Super Bowl run. I'd say he definitely has more support than Flacco ever did.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

In the primaries?

I think it is just part of the wax and wane of election season. Berine saw a dip for a while too in the polling but is now coming back. Her last couple of debate performances haven't been great, but I think you could make the same point for all of the front runners and a little bit of primary fatigue might be starting to set in. I think Warren's plan is pretty clear. She has a strong ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire. I think she is going to try desperately hard to win those states, get early momentum, and build up a big enough lead to hold off Biden in all the southern states where he's going to dominate.

If she captures those early states, you could see her argue (realistically) that she is the best shot on the left against the more moderate lane in Biden in hopes of capturing the more liberal voting bloc from Sanders as a "well she's definitely a lot better than Biden" sort of compromise.

(I should also state that Sanders is my number two so if Warren falters and Sanders takes the nomination, I wouldn't care in the slightest. I like Warren because she is younger and I don't have the same health concerns I have with Sanders.)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I don't disagree at all! I am in camp Warren so that wasn't meant to be a slam against her. I was just going off of current polling (which is obviously unreliable this far out).

I do think Warren has the most opportunity to grow out of those three being the biggest unknown.

I also think Trump has plenty of time to reign in those skittish conservatives as soon as any of the three vocally support abortion (which they will). He's polling consistently at 41-42% but I have to imagine that too will go up closer to the election. Conservatives always come home when it matters.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Michigan loves themselves some Bernie, it is true.

For a complete picture though:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Check the polls from yesterday.

Biden does better against Trump than Bernie in Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa
Bernie does better against Trump than Biden in Michigan, Texas, and Nevada
I don't see any states where Warren polls best against Trump

Theoretically with current polling there is a realistic path to victory for Biden, a plausible path to victory for Bernie, and Warren looks like she's getting beaten fairly soundly. Still a far way out though. Plenty of time for things to swing one way or the other. And most of this comes from one polling company so we will want to see more aggregates for all of these states before drawing conclusions.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Virginia just needs a couple of flips, but I don't know anything at all about the individual races or districts to know how likely that is.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

If it makes you feel any better I'm pretty sure everyone that posts in these topics has hated Tulsi forever except you, Tony, and myself and Tony and I have moved over into the "nah she's on her own" camp within the past couple of months
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LemonberySplash posted...

Ignoring me would suffice.

Blocking me and any alt I post in this topic on is outright trying to banish me from them.

Please chill out with the taste of LEMONS and REAL STRAWBERRIES, witnessing nothing but the health benefits of over 14 VITAMINS AND MINERALS found in each glass of LEMONBERRY SPLASH!

Now this is a name that brings me back to the long, long ago.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Hahaha I didn't even notice that and had just assumed you lost after checking it for the last time!

Like you said you had bad luck of your own this week, but if I lost like that I think I'd just be done checking fantasy for the season and try my luck again next year >_>
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I also think I misunderstood your last post SEP. I thought you meant whether or not this was a better strategy for him personally.

As to whether or not this is "better" ethically...not necessarily? I wasn't defending Pete there and the article Tony posted (in combination with the tweet GMUN put up) is obviously a terrible look.

I just don't think "hey let's buy this politician" is likely what happened there. I think Pete switched policies and corporations liked his new, terrible position and started throwing money his way. They have no reason to "buy" Mayor Pete who is a second tier candidate when they already have Biden arguing for all the same things and actually leading in the polls.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

You can talk about whatever you want but people who make topics can't have regular contributors to these topics blocked. Just unblock SEP for the duration this topic is up pretty please?
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

And unblock SEP while you're at it if you're going to make topics.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

He has a maybe 1% chance with this.

He has a 0% chance otherwise. He's not taking out Bernie and Warren who have been strong voices on this for a while now.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

That doesn't prove causation though. Conspiracy theories always play well because it makes people feel better to think there is some grand scheme working against them rather than individual people with terrible ideas.

All I see is a politician flip flopping their position because of opportunity (there is space to the right of Warren and could be even more space when Biden inevitably collapses in on himself like a dying star). There isn't any space left of Warren and she has already established herself as a strong voice in the realm between the far left and the moderate left. Pete's only option is to go right.

You can think CONSPIRACY but all I've seen is evidence of a slimy politician doing what is best for his campaign.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Edith Finch stuff

There was something grotesque about how happy and whimsical the scene was for what was the literal drowning of a baby. That scene and the one with the cannery at the end were far and away the strongest of the game. I loved the aesthetic of the comic book scene as well.

Overall, the game just didn't quite click for me. I do think I liked it, but I feel like I should've liked it more and it wasn't quite as good as I had heard it was. Some amazing scenes, but I felt like the message got a little muddled overall and I can't say I was a fan of the ending.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Brady has the best coach of all time on the Patriots and they've recently won three Super Bowls.

Thinking there is "somewhere better out there" is insane.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Stephen Miller is somehow only 34 years old.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I think thats likely it for me this month. I looked into it some more and Rock of Ages doesnt look good enough to warrant a purchase. Maaaaaaybe Last of Us but that feels like a long shot.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Suprak has finished What Remains of Edith Finch

Interesting game. Im not entirely sure how much I liked it. There were a lot of really interesting narrative elements to it and several scenes that were hard to watch. The story was good but not so good I would absolutely recommend it to other people.

Everyone here should play it though because it is like two hours long.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Finished the first "floor" of memories. I meant to only play for like ten minutes but kept going "eh one room more" so that's probably a good sign.

I was caught off guard when I turned into a cat. Can't say I was expecting that! I do really like the little vignettes for each of the family members and how different each one feels. The do a great job capturing different voices so it does feel like you're peering into the lives of a bunch of different people. The comic effect was great and I'm hooked on the story. There is also something very unsettling about intentionally doing things that you know will lead to the death of a kid just in the name of pushing the story forward. There isn't anything here yet in terms of actual gameplay and you can't even really explore like you can in some similar games like this but overall I'm definitely enjoying it so far.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I already started Edith Finch last night. Interesting looking game so far. I can tell already how much I like this is pretty much going to be entirely tied to the story. I got curious and checked how long this was after starting and saw an average playthrough lasts like two hours so I'll probably finish it this weekend.

I should probably do spoilers for actual content stuff, yeah? Just got to the first "book" thing which opened up into a window and then I entered someone else's memories? I stopped right then so I don't quite know what is going on just yet.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I feel bad because my team is so garbage it doesnt matter for me at all. Hopefully it doesnt completely ruin your season.

I offered you Juju instead too!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Its a single pill with 5 points separating first from fourth and a 4.7 MoE, Id say its basically a tie.

But we can just compromise and say its close.

Or good news is acceptable too!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

This is effectively a four way tie tbqh but just by raw numbers Biden is in fourth in the latest Iowa poll!

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html

He should not be losing that many votes to Buttigieg if he has any hope at all. Warren and Sanders are around where they've been, but Buttigieg is significantly cutting into his voting base it looks like.

Edit: in case you don't have NYT access here are just the raw numbers for the curious - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Anyone here who didn't play it this month but intends to do so in the near future, I recommend doing a first play through on story mode. It isn't because the game is very difficult or anything, but it is extremely frustrating as nearly everything seems to be designed to needlessly punish the player.

This is actually a great suggestion. Like KCF said, there is something interesting here but the game itself was so frustrating (and not even necessarily in a difficult way) that I just quit about halfway through and have had zero desire to go back.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

red sox 777 posted...

If the election was Roy Moore vs. Bill Clinton, Bill would probably win both Alabama and West Virginia.

He would not and it wouldn't even be close.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Senate race is different than presidential race. Both of those senators campaigned far to the left of the national party. Neither belonged to the tea party. West Virginia and Alabama have a democratic senators and will never ever ever ever vote for a democratic president regardless of how big the wave was. Other reasons why you don't know what you're talking about.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

It pleases me to have a crop of suffering fan bases so I hope none of them win any time soon.

I never want the Indians to win a title again so throw them in that group as well.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/10/30/whistleblower_exposed_close_to_biden_brennan_dnc_oppo_researcher_120996.html

If this is true and the whistleblower really is a soy boy-looking millennial Democrat who worked for Biden, then Trump is winning Reagan-style next year. Disaster.

No one is ever winning Reagan style ever again. The whistleblower could be Pelosi sitting on Bidens shoulders in an oversized trench coat and Trumps map would be the same as 2016 and maybe like New Hampshire.

Alternatively the whistleblower could be the reincarnated corpse of Lincoln coming back to save America and the Dems world get the Midwest back and maybe Arizona.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

All seven games won on the road.

Osuna doesn't get a ring.

Truly this is the greatest timeline.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I think this was the end of the Astros window.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Dancedreamer posted...

Why is it that ONE Democrat votes present, and that's all we ever hear about on the issue? No headlines stating "Greg Pence, brother of President Mike Pence, votes NO on Armenian Genocide Bill". Or "Virginia Foxx votes NO on Armenian Genocide Bill". or "Mark Meadows votes NO on Armenian Genocide Bill". Or how about "Eleven Republicans vote NO on Armenian Genocide Bill."

No, the headlines are: "Ilhan Omar Votes PRESENT on Armenian Genocide Bill"

I mean criticize her vote all you want. That's fair. But just because we expect it from Republicans, doesn't mean we shouldn't be criticizing them too.

How come when one adult pees their pants in public thats all you hear about but no one cares when all these children pee their pants all the time?

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."