Lurker > red sox 777

Runemistress posted...

Mr. Trump actually isn't particularly good at getting off scot-free from lawsuits. Look at Trump University and the more recent case where he took money from a Veteran's charity. You can't look at raw numbers and say "Look, he's good at it!" That'd be a mistake. (And one MItch McConnell may very well have made in his calculations.)

I don't think Mitch McConnell is particularly smart, either. Like Mr. Trump, he is brazen. He lacks shame, and is willing to do anything to win. But I wouldn't mistake that for him having some sort of plan. He wanted to overturn the Affordable Care Act, and despite controlling the house, the senate, and the white house, he was unable to get it done. I don't think McConnell knows how to play the long game. (And I don't think he cares to learn, given that he's 77 years old.)

As far as the Trump University case goes, he paid out $25 million for defrauding what, tens of thousands of students? Those students probably got back pennies on the dollar of what they paid to Trump University, after their class counsel's attorney's fees were paid.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Liberals love Pete. That doesn't mean the left, the working class, or independents will.

Not from what I can tell. Independents love him, and the working class could be persuaded to vote for him if they see how much liberals hate him.

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Honestly, given how much liberals in this topic dislike him, Mayor Pete might actually be able to win against Trump.

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xp1337 posted...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1207740858587439104

Pennsylvania's Supreme Court struck down the GOP's congressional gerrymander. So naturally the PA GOP is advancing a constitutional amendment to effectively gerrymander the PA judiciary by electing judges by district instead of statewide.

About time. Everything should be elected with first past the post single member districts based on geography.

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Runemistress posted...

Perhaps. But they've already shown they aren't smart enough to not say that they will be impartial jurors. Or rather I should say, Donald J. Trump's fragile ego hasn't allowed them to be smart enough to say that. I would not count on his ego to not derail his own chances further.

Lindsey Graham, I'd agree, but Mitch McConnell is very smart and I would believe that he has everything planned out. DJT too - remember that the man has been a party to something like 4,000 lawsuits. If there's one thing Trump knows how to do, it's how to get off scot-free from a lawsuit where the facts show that he was clearly in the wrong. His strategies may seem strange, but they've worked over a lifetime, and, probably big reason for his success is that he is good at getting people to underestimate him.

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Runemistress posted...

They can argue that, but good luck selling that in the court of public opinion. Especially in states with vulnerable senators. Which could very well include McConnell himself given his own lack of popularity, Matt Bevin's loss, and Matt Bevin's subsequent questionable pardons.

If they just say they believe the President should get all normal due process protections I think that will be very easy to sell in the court of public opinion.

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Runemistress posted...

Given that Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham have both said (not just implied) that neither of them will be 'impartial jurors' and that this is 'not a judicial process', Mr. Trump and his allies would have difficulty arguing in court that Mr. Trump's 'right to a speedy trial' was violated.

Trump won't ask in court. He'll ask in the Senate.....where, as you say, the majority can more or less make up rules. They can just say defendants get all of the rights normal criminal defendants get, but jurors don't have to be impartial.


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If they plan to dismiss the case for failure to allege an impeachable offense, then they don't need witnesses. I'm not sure the Senate needs the House to formally present the charges to do that either. The articles of impeachment are public and the Senate can rule that as as matter of law, even if all the facts alleged therein are true an impeachable offense has not been charged.

If the Senate isn't going to do that, I think there will need to be witnesses.

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But procedurally it looks horrible. Especially since the Republicans have been harping on about not being allowed to call their witnesses for ages, and now it looks like the Democrats don't want a trial because the Republican witnesses would finally be allowed to testify. It would be like if the Trump DOJ charged Hillary Clinton with a bunch of crimes and then refused to prosecute her, trying to give her the permanent status of an indicted person.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Didnt really see any purpose to the delay sending the articles to the Senate move, but...

https://twitter.com/timodc/status/1207719217677496320?s=21

baiting Trump into doing something stupid isnt an angle I had considered!

If the House seriously takes the position that it doesn't have to send articles of impeachment to the Senate for trial, then the Senate will be able to easily take the position that it doesn't need to consider any such articles if they are sent later. The 6th Amendment guarantees defendants the right to a speedy trial if they so choose, and the Senate could easily just adopt that.

As for as delaying the trial, the motivation is obvious. The Democrats don't want to lose at trial. I think it's quite clever - trying to get the benefit of impeaching Trump for the election, without suffering the loss they'll take when he's acquitted. Props to Nancy Pelosi for thinking of it.

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pyresword posted...

Turns out if you replace all the insane things Trump said with reasonable things then you get a letter that is more reasonable.

Everyone should be doing this. If Democrats finally learn how to Trump will no longer be president.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i just now read trump's angry letter to pelosi. uh yeah, lol @ red sox calling it "completely reasonable."

by starting an impeachment inquiry, pelosi "declared open war on american democracy"? what?

It's Trump. You have to tone down all rhetoric by 90%. So replace "declared open war" with "sent a letter threatening to sue in small claims court."

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Xeybozn posted...

...Would Trump supporters during the 2016 primaries count? If I remember right, pretty much all the established GOP powers were strongly anti-Trump until it was clear he would get the nomination.

Yes, and they are in fact one of the few grassroots movements that have actually succeeded.

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Jakyl25 posted...

You have to remember that the conservative platform of hating political correctness means youre allowed to be disrespectful to anyone except them

If you hear someone use the term snowflake you should believe them because they are speaking from experience!

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And I tend to see NC and GA as sort of pipe dreams. The Democrats only won NC in 2008 and didn't win GA even in that landslide year.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Trump's been President for three years and the country hasn't burned to ashes in a smoldering fire, the economy - regardless of your metrics - hasn't collapsed, and we haven't entangled ourselves in any new wars that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of young Americans. Enough of the country has been conditioned to accept this pathetically lowered standard, and because of that, he'll be tougher to beat in 2020 even if he faces a stronger opponent than Hillary. The incumbent's advantage won't simply disappear.

Speaking more specifically, I still believe this election is overwhelmingly about the Midwest, and if anything I feel Trump will be stronger there than last time. He won't be ceding WI, MI, IA, and PA so easily (and OH is red).

I think this is right. The economy has been so strong, there's been no new wars, our international standing as a tough, self-interested, negotiator has improved. Incumbents rarely lose.

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Obama won it twice and it's a goldmine of EVs. I suppose I generally agree with you though.

But if you don't get Florida, you need 3 out of 4 of PA, MI, WI, and NC, which are probably going to be the swingiest Trump 2016 states other than FL.

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Incidentally swinging PA and MI and keeping all else the same still results in a Trump win. Really what you need is to swing FL and one more state.

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Trump is the 80.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Hes already effectively above the law

He could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose a single Republican Congressional vote!

That's because of the Democrats. Their utterly incompetent opposition has led to this. Will they change course before Trump could get away with massacreing a whole crowd on Fifth Avenue?

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Yes, after the impeachment goes through the Dems lose all leverage. Trump's acquittal will effectively make him above the law because any attempt to impeach again would look ridiculous.

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Xeybozn posted...

The right thinks way too small. Why take the time to investigate Biden's "crimes" when they could simply declare the Democratic Party an enemy of the state and execute him (and all other elected Democrats) for treason? If the GOP is going to let Trump be a king anyway they might as well go all the way with it.

The King has not had that kind of power in the UK or England since at least the Magna Carta, and probably ever.

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He tried to tell the Democrats and they wouldn't listen. It's time to jump off the sinking ship while he still can.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Probably a waste of time to really get into it, but I'll note that your premises are known to be false! Anyway, thanks for answering!

We haven't had trial yet. I think the Senate will determine that the premises are in fact true.

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Xp, I apologize. I completely misread your poll earlier. I thought you were reporting the percentage of minority non-college educated voters who voted for the Republican, but you were actually reporting the margin of victory across the electorate as a whole among all non-college educated voters.

So my earlier comments are withdrawn, and my reply is that Bush '04 won the national popular vote by 3 points while Trump '16 lost it by 3 points. So the working class swing is about +8 relative to the national popular vote.

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xp1337 posted...

*looks at 2016*
*bursts out laughing*

Why laugh? Trump is just a mirror. A mean mirror, but ultimately a mirror. All of the negativity came from the Democrats, Trump just showed you what the Democratic Party is without the veil provided by fancy degrees and money.

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Like - Obama could have spent the entire 2008 campaign griping about Bush and how his policies caused the crash. He didn't. He gave people something to vote for instead.

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xp1337 posted...

Against Republicans who went up against a once-in-a-generation politician named Obama, sure.

If you can look past that though...

Exit polls aren't as nice as breaking down education+race back then but some quick math tells me:

Trump - Won non-college voters by 7.9 points.
Bush 04 - Won non-college voters by 6.2 points.

a point and a half is "vastly better"?

...god exit polls in the past are useless, i really want to give you more than this but either it doesn't exist or i'd be in for a search mission.

That is a 27% increase, so yes, it's vastly better. And Bush never said mean things about minorities either.

As for Obama - how about instead of writing him off as a one-time outlier the Democrats try to emulate his campaign strategies? Like connecting with people, building trust, showing people hope, etc. Obama speeches were inspirational - that kind of message tends to win!

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As for what to do about it? Start identifying people as individuals, as first class citizens, who may identify with a socioeconomic class if they choose to do so. Recognize that deleterious effects of identifying people en masse by race.

And stop arguing that beating Donald Trump with the minority vote is an accomplishment. You need a landslide like previous Democrats got, a majority isn't enough.

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xp1337 posted...

Oh. You know, I'm not sure. I think the safe answer is to say he will not, no. But he might. I was only talking about the Republican Senators there since conviction obviously isn't happening so the only thing of interest here is if 50-51 votes can be gathered to call witnesses and not have a complete sham. Manchin sticks with Dems on calling witnesses I'm confident of that.

otoh romney apparently said earlier today he has "no reason to question" mcconnell not wanting to call any witnesses so who knows what's going on

~~~

also because it ****ing triggers me whenever people say democrats have a problem with the "working class" is that no they don't they overwhelmingly win it with the non-white working class. Clinton won that over Trump by over 50 points. It's the white working class that they got crushed by in 2016 and seeing as how studies looking into the why of that keeps coming back "racial resentment" I'm "curious" what exactly such people think the Democrats should do about that.

Xp, Trump did vastly better with the minority working class than previous Republicans and he did vastly better with the white working class than previous Republicans. So I say he did better with the working class.

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Most likely to break ranks:

Manchin
Jones
Murkowski
Romney
Collins

The thing to remember about Romney is he has no spine whatsoever. I think Trump tried to bully Murkowski before during the debate on the healthcare bill by threatening to block aid to Alaska if she didn't vote for the bill, and it backfired because she refused to buckle under and called his bluff*. I think she's the most likely Republican to break rank.

*I think it was a bluff. I don't remember hearing any stories about federal funding to Alaska being stopped, so Trump must not have done it.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Impeachment is what they're using to rally the base and the youth because they sure aren't gonna do it with Joe Biden's policies

The base and the youth isn't who you need to rally. It's working class people, both young and old. I agree that Biden's policies aren't going to get that done, but Bernie's policies could.

You need to realize that centrists like LOTM, SJWs, champagne liberals, left wing activists, etc. are going to vote against Trump no matter what. You don't need to worry about rallying them. It adds absolutely nothing to your cause. If they want impeachment and you don't impeach they aren't going to vote for Trump or stay home out of spite.

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SmartMuffin posted...

100% disagree.

The ideas the Democrats have for the country are universally terrible. I want to spend a LOT more time talking about the Green New Deal and Medicare for All. That helps Trump a lot. These things are not even a little bit popular outside of left-wing Twitter.

Both of those are incredibly vague statements of intention more than policies. Probably they will be seen as unrealistic pie in the sky ideas but why take the risk when talking about Trump exclusively is pretty much a guaranteed winning strategy?

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But yeah. Reminder that every day we spend on this impeachment trial is one day we spend talking about Trump and not talking about all the policy ideas the Democrats have for the country. We've spent the last 4.5 years talking about nothing but Trump and if we keep doing that over the next 11 months it seems very very likely that he will be reelected.

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I want a long trial. I think the People need to be respected, and one of the organs they speak through is the House of Representatives. So if the House impeaches, the People are entitled to have a trial.

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And the Democrat strategy on this is wrong, IMO. If they must impeach, they should charge attempted bribery. That is unquestionably an impeachable offense. And Trump's acquittal won't set a precedent that XYZ conduct is not impeachable, it will only be a far more limited factual determination that Trump did not do it this time. That gives more room for future presidents to be held to account.

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That letter looks completely reasonable. When will the Democrats come back to reality?

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So since this is a witch hunt....Mitch, maybe allow spectral evidence to admitted? I think spectral evidence was admitted in the US by the Court of Oyer and Terminer in Salem, Massachusetts in 1692. Essentially, witnesses may testify about what they saw in dreams or visions for the truth value of the dream or vision.

For instance, someone could testify that they had a dream in which they saw Hillary Clinton meeting with the former President of Ukraine and coordinating the rigging of the 2016 election. And the jury could decide to believe the dream as a true vision of reality.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1207024107101007872?s=19

yeah good luck with all that

The real question isn't if Rs will defect to call key witnesses (the same witnesses the Rs complained weren't called by the House because the White House refused to allow them to testify), but what tools McConnell has access to in order to shut down proceedings if they are called

Trial schedule

Day 1-3 Hunter Biden
Day 4-5 Joe Biden
Day 6-30 Hillary Clinton
Day 31 the Senate votes that if they were voting on the impeachment of Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton, they would vote to convict.
Day 32 Complete and Total Exoneration of Donald Trump

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For what it's worth, I think 9 Republican senators voted against their party to acquit Andrew Johnson. Not a single one of them was reelected to the Senate. I think the verdict of history has been decisive - stick together or lose your seat.

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

It's not "showing dissension".

It's doing their job to accurately determine the merits of impeachment/removal.

Yes, they will privately determine that there is no merit to this impeachment and publicly show a united front on that.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Good policy proposal from Romney and Bennet - a fully refundable child tax credit:

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1206765781624770560?s=21

I would support eliminating payroll taxes entirely. They are an outrageous tax on the poor and working class and an ever-present reminder that the Democratic Party has utterly betrayed the cause of socialism.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Seeing Romney in the news reminded me of this story I read the other day:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/16/politics/senators-worry-white-house-and-gop-leaders/

tl;dr

While peeling off the number of Republican senators to actually impeach Trump is all but impossible, there may be some hope in getting enough to actually force McConnell to do a trail. We would need four. So that could theoretically be attainable. Maybe. Possibly.

(But probably not)

Republican senators are too smart to fall for that. They will stick together. Maybe give you 2 votes to dangle the carrot in front of the Democrats a little longer. But they are not going show any meaningful dissension publicly.

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/474740-25m-set-aside-for-gun-violence-research-in-spending-agreement-in-win-for

Do nothing Democrats at it again

Mitch? Why are you allowing this?

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Trump has no reason to refuse to debate against this field. He boycotted a Fox debate to prove his independence and he refused to debate 1v1 with champion debater Ted Cruz. Both wise decisions. What does he have to gain by refusing to debate one of these dems?

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And winning a debate means increasing your odds of winning the election. Usually that's done by persuading undecided voters. Which also means that those polls showing more people thought Hillary did better in the debates were probably measuring the wrong thing - it could be people who were already Hillary supporters overwhelmingly thought she won the debates, while people who were already Trump supporters didn't say he won the debates to the same magnitude and Trump won among genuine* undecideds.

*A genuine undecided voter is someone who actually could vote either way. That's someone like Ulti or MWC who has voted for both parties before and could vote for either party in the future. It's not someone like your typical evangelical who will say they are undecided up until the last day when they will decide to vote Republican.....every single time.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Im someone with huge negative preconceived notions about both who did not vote for either.

She destroyed him in Debates 1 and 3 and still comfortably won the townhall format in 2

Ironically given one of Trumps favorite insults, he clearly ran out of energy by the end of 1 and 3

I came in with somewhat negative feelings about Trump and deeply negative feelings about Clinton and thought Trump won all the debates.

I hate the "town hall" format. That is not a debate, it's an opportunity for the media to ask misleading and downright bad questions and an invitation for the candidates to deliver canned soundbites in response to those questions.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yes, Trump will lose the debates against any of the Dems. Maybe not as decisively as he lost against Hillary depending on the candidate, but 1v1 Trump can't hide the fact that he doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about on any issue.

I suppose this is an issue on which we simply have a factual dispute. Where you look at the sky and see one color and I look at it and see another color. So there's probably no sense in talking about it, but I would suggest that you go back and watch those debates again and think about it from the point of view of someone with no preconceived notions about either DJT or HRC.

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pyresword posted...

Why would the Democrats care that Trump doesn't want to debate? That seems to be playing into their hands?

Because the Democrats suffer from Trump derangement syndrome and have a tremendous need to oppose everything he does, even if it's good for them.

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In rewatching the Trump/Clinton debates it is clear that Trump won those debates.

But as far as refusing to debate, he will ultimately debate, but most likely he will get something for it because the Democrats and media are incompetent negotiators. This is classic Trump-style bargaining - abruptly announce that you will not do what you actually want to do unless you are paid for it. It will work because the media and Democrats will not call his bluff.

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