Lurker > red sox 777

transcience posted...

this should be the biggest percentage shift update in contest history

I thought it would be L-Block, but the block actually only lost 1.94% on update 2.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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And looks like Mario got 54 votes on the last update, which was 4 minutes. He hadn't had a single (5 minute) update that high for more than 3 hours before that.
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Okay, NOW Zelda is getting bandwagoned.
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Huh....Zelda still at 60%.
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17 vote gain just like that. Such efficiency. Please bury him, Cloud.
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Cosby, Weinstein, and Lauer were all respected in their fields because they did good work in those fields. We were talking about Kavanaugh making judicial decisions.
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If Mario wins this and flukes his way past Cloud and Zelda, I hope Link doubles him in the final.
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Kavanaugh is a respected judge, not a partisan hack. Supreme Court justices vote with the "other side" pretty often, much more than the media would have you believe. The most common score on the Supreme Court is 9-0.
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Zelda's run didn't seem so exciting because it always felt like there was an end to the road, which is Link. Starcraft always rose to its opponent, and even now I really wonder what would have happened had it been able to face Final Fantasy VII, which would have been 2 days after the SSBM match - an FFVII which had just dispatched Ocarina of Time, making the whole "FFVII always wins" thing actually reasonable.
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Lots of low predictions for Link today! Everyone predicted Link to match or fall below his worst ever performance against Nintendo, ever. Except Lopen. I think about 70% sounds right.
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If you want to say that Zelda's "bandwagon" allowed her to resist SFF from Mario, I could go for that.

And probably wouldn't pick Snake over Mario this year after the Samus match. If she can SFF away his Smash support, Mario probably can too
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Safer_777 posted...

Come on people. Zelda barely beat Snake and barely beat Mario. Do you really think that Snake equals Mario? No. There is a bandwagon around here somehwere.

Yes? Snake has had stronger results than Mario every year since 2008.
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Bandwagons are rare and easy to spot when they happen. Starcraft 2004. L-Block 2007. Undertale 2015 (it was a rally and a bandwagon). Snake in 2008. They have very distinctive features.
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L-Block recorded stronger results every round. And became more frontloaded every round. Zelda recorded the same level results each round. And no frontloading of trends. They look nothing alike.
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Bandwagons have always produced a telltale dominance of the early vote. As the bandwagon goes on it the trends becomes more and more exaggerated. We've seen nothing like this out of Zelda.
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Or just have seen Zelda wreck Squall and beat Snake. Both of those results are in line with her narrowly beating Mario.
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Not only that, but Crono beat a Noble Niner without being a beneficiary of LFF. He hadn't actually done that since 2005 until yesterday!
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I really want to say that Samus is worth more than the 53% Tifa/Sephiroth says she is worth on him indirectly. But I guess that would require Sephiroth to rSFF Tifa? Or maybe the Samus/Snake Smash SFF is real.

I wouldn't count out Cloud though. Zelda has looked really really good, and if Link got a third of the boost Zelda did, no one is breaking 40% on Link.
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These are the same trends that Samus had in the first match. She took loads of percentage away from Mario during the last few hours of the first poll. When you have these trends and start from 50% instead of 48%, you get pretty big gains.
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But um, I'm also not convinced CT was actually stronger than OOT in 2015. OOT was probably getting anti-voted as the champion, and that means it's going to put up less impressive performances in matches where it wins by a lot, due to the anti-votes. It's why Cloud and Sephiroth have struggled to put up blowouts for a decade.
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And you know, Undertale, unlike Draven, got its rally from a large number of sources. It started on Tumblr but also drew significant strength from Reddit and Twitter, and from a lot of different people on each platform. It was.....organic. From our point of view it might have felt like a sure thing, but I don't doubt the UT ralliers themselves saw themselves as underdogs - and many on this site too.

Draven was getting all his rally support from a single thread on the League of Legends subreddit. There was no buildup, no crescendo with big comebacks in the last few hours of the poll, just the thread went up and the poll was nuked. No fun allowed for anyone else. And then they even DDOSed the site. So that produced blowback, and Link is, after all, a true hero. This kind of battle is, in some sense, his purpose.
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creativename posted...

red sox 777 posted...

OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.

Favorites cant rally?

Mario was the underdog all those times he clutched out a win?

Zelda fans are absolutely the rally type, and CT fans dont have any place to get significant support outside GameFAQs itself.

Mario was the underdog against Cloud. Against Crono in 2003, he wasn't the favorite either - both characters had close to 50/50 support. He certainly wasn't anything like Link.

Zelda has never pulled off a single rally except for that Draven match - sure, part of it is that Zelda usually doesn't need rallies - but we saw nothing against Cloud or L-Block or Undertale. Draven provided the sense that an extremely powerful, outside, force was trampling the contest underfoot - and brought out the best in Link.
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Mario is winning in the UK, so this overnight could be a little painful for Samus. If you look at last match though, her percentage had already pretty much bottomed out by this point and come morning, she rose 0.70% from there until the end of the match. And she is winning in both the US and Canada right now, which matches that. I think Mario is pretty cooked here, with most of his hopes hanging on later voters not being as contest-aware as earlier voters and not switching their vote because Mario won round 1.
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creativename posted...

Lopen posted...

Moonroof posted...

And when these two go against each other, it isnt even close because practically all of the voters prefer one over the other. Aka SFF.

This clearly does not happen in Cloud vs Crono based on the results so I'm not sure what you're getting at?

Moonroof posted...

I understand that the extrapolated projections were spot-on for Crono, but Im saying you cant properly gauge him and Cloud from their match.

So we can't use the extrapolated projections and we can't use the direct match, so what should we use then? Kau Cim sticks? Divination through visions gained while taking a bath in the rejuvenating blood of a thousand virgins?

Amazing post.

What a waste of virgins though. Surely thered be better things to do with them >_> <_<

I think the answer is we set Crono at whatever number he needs to get 50.05% on Mario and declare ourselves satisfied.
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OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.
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1. Link
2. Samus
3. Cloud
4. Snake
5. Mario
6. Crono
7. Megaman
8. Sonic
9. Sephiroth
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Good job Crono and Samus, great percentage moves on the last 3 hours!

I guess Cloud had a decent early vote now? He's lost gobs of percentage to both Link and Crono.

I would guess Cloud gets around 53% against Mario, assuming he ends at 56% again after Europe has its say. That's based on the 58/42 Mario/Bowser ratio. I'm rooting for Cloud against Samus, but she's probably the favorite.
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This isn't a Crono style rally. This has been going on gradually for 20 hours.
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Behold the power of Crono's day vote.
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Barrier down!

Finally!
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The FFVII remake should have Link as a final bonus boss. He'll be almost impossible to beat because he will have many attacks that can OHKO your entire party even with all characters with their stats and equipment maxed out, and your only hope is that he will get unlucky and miss a lot of times.
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I mean, people are just thinking in terms of, who can beat Link. So Crono and Megaman have been off their radar so far, as neither of them was considered to have a chance. But now Cloud has failed.
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Lopen posted...

If "you had your chance" was a factor that mattered Mega Man is probably winning a lot more easily

But Megaman also lost to Pikachu, so he had his chance too. But I'm not sure the people who care about that look into results beyond the ones that matter to the winner of the contest. So that means the matches of Link, Cloud, Snake, and bandwagon/rally characters.
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But yeah, Crono's reputation for being clutch is entirely undeserved! He rallies 300 votes once in his life, and gets accused of cheating. Draven rallies 300 votes in 5 minutes and no one bats an eye.
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Oh, so the winner of Crono/Megaman gets to face Cloud immediately, without a break. I guess that's probably a good thing, since this match is close? It's going to take a lot of Cloud voters deciding he's had his shot at Link and wanting to give someone else a try to flip that 56/44 result.
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Megaman 2005 doesn't feel like a close match though, because Crono led wire to wire and I don't think Megaman even won so much as one hour. The lead sort of just drifted upwards steadily all day, after Crono started out with a nice cushion from the first hour, while the percentage drifted downwards all day.
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Lopen posted...

Like I count 6 close matches in his career off the top of my head, all losses

Mario 2k2
Mario 2k3
Mega Man 2k5
Sonic 2k6
Vincent 2k7
MissingNo 2k10

Maybe he'll pull it out this time but I wouldn't feel gold about it

You forgot Vincent 2008.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%
12:00 | 47.52%
13:00 | 48.09%

One more hour?
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Zelda pushed forth her magic, and the heavy doors to the throne room opened. She had just defeated the one who had occupied the seat for the past 7 years, the King of the Multiverse, Mario. By right of conquest, the throne was hers. But she knew that the real king was out there somewhere. 7 years ago, Link had simply disappeared, telling no one of his whereabouts, not even Zelda.

At first, Mario dared not to sit on the great throne, and had built a smaller seat to sit on beside it. He called himself regent for the King only, then. But as the weeks turned to years and Link did not return, Mario decided it was worth the risk, and proclaimed himself the new king, Link having by all appearances abdicated his rule. Mario had sat in the great throne for 5 years now, hearing petitions and receiving the submission of the representatives of the worlds subject to the kingdom.

Zelda considered sitting in the great chair herself. She was a princess by birth, she had been born and raised to rule. She held the Triforce of Wisdom, and with it she would lead the multiverse into a new glorious era of prosperity and peace. Zelda thought about it for a minute, and moved on. She could not sit there. She remembered.

Instead, Zelda summoned the royal orchestra. She took up the conductor's baton, and the band played. Across all the realms, the music echoed, a petition and an invitation. There would be no peace, no prosperity, no golden age. In place of these, there would be power, unlimited power, a pair of boots stamping in the faces of the peoples of all the realms - forever.

Veni, veni, venias
Ne me mori facias...

Soon, the King would return. And Justice would be done.
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I feel like it's a bit early to make this thread. Crono isn't even in the lead yet.
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Some random character catches a rally and brings in 50,000 votes from outside the site and blasts Link out of the water with the low votals we have on site now.
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As far as Mario/Zelda rSFF, I think it's more likely Mario got rSFF on Zelda than Zelda receiving it against Mario.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%
12:00 | 47.52%

One more hour like the last one, Crono, and this match will be evened up.
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Based on the last 6 hours: Crono wins by 29.
Based on the last 12 hours: Megaman wins by 9.
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We have one-third of the match left, and Crono's quota stands at 0.99 votes per update.

Based on last half-hour: Megaman wins by 157.
Based on last hour: Crono wins by 112.
Based on last 2 hours: Megaman wins by 145.
Based on last 3 hours: Megaman wins by 105.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%

Vote intake is starting to pick back up, as the slowest comeback ever grinds onwards.
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In the past, a long long time ago (10 years), Crono and Frog were able to fairly consistently rally about 300 votes in the last hour if needed using old, non social media, methods. Stuff like people contacting individuals on AIM. I wouldn't count on that today.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%

With the poll starting at 7 PM instead of midnight, the dead zone has become really really dead. Crono and Megaman combined failed to bring in 700 votes during the 6-7 hour, even with the registered user bonus.
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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%

I really wanted to see Crono in the lead before going to bed. Looks like that might be a fool's errand.
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Nanis23 posted...

I have never seen anything like this
Win win win lose lose lose win win lose win? What?
And it's not like he lose or wins those hours by a small amount or something, it's drastic

We've never had vote totals this low. When the two of them are only bringing in 800 votes an hour combined (and it's actually only 2/3 that because of the registered user bonus) you're going to see some big percentage swings just from random variation.
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