Lurker > charmander6000

LeonhartFour posted...

whew complete disaster averted

Chloe is getting destroyed

Yeah, we have to remember that Dante could potentially double Lightning next round too.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Vote totals have desynced I think SBAllen has fixed that issue.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

No one cares about Life is Strange. It was getting quadrupled by Fallout 3 before the Undertale rally.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Spyro not done yet...
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

cyko posted...

Any thoughts on whether the registered user bonus is already included?

Hard to say since we've never had a contest at this time, but as of now I'd say yes.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Thought Spyro would be doing better...
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

All the favourites are doing well.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

No match?
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Tik Tok


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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

PokeFear vs PokeFraud

You decide.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

LeonhartFour posted...

why is anyone voting for something other than first round or finals

Obviously they believe a larger rally will top her.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Phoenix has no rallying power, go for Monika
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Dante gets announced for Smash Ultimate, just before his match.

The other option is that the site's taste has changed. It has been 5 years after all.
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CBX - Today's Winners: Dante, Lightning, Chun-Li, Ganondorf
Score: 0/0

Match III: (5) Spyro the Dragon vs. (12) Chun-Li

Previous Contest Performance

Spyro the Dragon - 2013
Round 1: 56.83% against Clementine (29.97%) and Reyn (13.20%)
Round 2: 21.66% against Sephiroth (52.04%) and Morrigan Aensland (26.30%)

Chun-Li - 2013
Round 1: 26.71% against Tifa Lockheart (61.86%) and Cirno (11.43%)

Analysis

I had to think about this match for a while. Both characters performed around the same against Sephiroth and Tifa which on any other year would be good news for Spyro, but in 2013 Sephiroth looked horrible while Tifa looked to be her usual self.

Spyro has started to cross into nostalgic territory in 2013 which would explain his jump in strength. He was also the marketing tool for Skylanders which is no longer popular, but Im not convinced that it brought him much strength on GameFAQs, but any decrease in strength would spell trouble for him.

Chun-Li is the safe bet for this match, but it wouldnt be shocking if Spyro took the upset. While Street Fighter hasnt had anything new, based on the favorite Street Fighter character polls Chun-Li has gained in popularity among the GameFAQs users which remain. If Spyro does win Id keep my eye on Crash and his upcoming match against Cecil.

charmander6000s Bracket: Chun-Li > Spyro the Dragon

charmander6000s Prediction: Chun-Li wins, 55.84% - 44.16%




Match IV: (4) Ganondorf vs. (13) Neku Sakuraba

Previous Contest Performance

Ganondorf - 2013
Round 1: 65.18% against Guybrush Threepwood (18.06%) and Max Payne (16.76%)
Round 2: 17.64% against Vivi (41.27%) and Mario (41.09%)

Neku Sakuraba - 2013
Round 1: 37.87% against Catherine (39.84%) and Vaas Montenegro (22.29%)

Analysis

One of the things Im interested to see is how much of a factor Breath of the Wild will have on this contest. Sure, Ganondorfs role is not huge, but when is it? Ganondorf, while the board favourite may struggle to win the division and a match in the champions bracket should the boost not be as large as expected.

He however, wont struggle in this match. Yes, The World Ends With You was just re-released on the Switch last week, but that alone wont cover the gap between these two characters. Neku may be consider a mainstay, but hes far from having any legitimate strength.

charmander6000s Bracket: Ganondorf > Neku Sakuraba

charmander6000s Prediction: Ganondorf wins, 71.36% - 28.64%
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Match I: (1) Dante vs. (16) Cuphead

Previous Contest Performance

Dante 2013
Round 1: 60.08% against Laharl (25.59%) and Raz (14.33%)
Round 2: 31.55% against Squirtle (44.08%) and Zidane Tribal (24.37%)

Cuphead - N/A
N/A

Analysis

Its been a while. Five years since the last character battle. Any data now is useless, but that wont stop me from analysing every match.

Dante had a rough 2013, due to the backlash of DmC. Even if GameFAQs doesnt show too much interest in newer games Dante will hope things are forgiven with the announcement of Devil May Cry V. Though unless something crazy happens Dantes path does feel a bit predictable, so he may not need to worry.

As a character from a new IP, I dont expect too much out of Cuphead. His game did finish third in the 2017 Game of the Year poll where it got crushed by Breath of the Wild and Persona 5. In the past, Dante has had great success in crushing weaker characters and I believe the same will be true here. If Cuphead breaks 30% I would consider that to be a moral victory.

charmander6000s Bracket: Dante > Cuphead

charmander6000s Prediction: Dante wins, 72.43% - 27.57%




Match II: (8) Chloe Price vs. (9) Lightning

Previous Contest Performance

Chloe Price - N/A
N/A

Lightning - 2013
Round 1: 38.42% against Donkey Kong (45.76%) and Falco Lombardi (15.82%)

Analysis

Remember when Lightning lost to Donkey Kong despite Falco being in the poll? Lucky for her third times a charm and barring any rallies she should get her first win. Life is Strange was losing 80/20 to Fallout 3 before the Undertale rally increased it to a respectable 27%.

I feel Life is Strange was more of a slow burner in terms of it gaining popularity, but at the same time the game isnt geared towards the GameFAQs demographics whom are also less likely to play new IPs. I dont expect much out of Chloe Price other than to be weak fodder.

charmander6000s Bracket: Lightning > Chloe Prince

charmander6000s Prediction: Lightning wins, 69.11% - 30.89%
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Half on (16) Cuphead (+52)
Half on (9) Lightning (-26)
Half on (12) Spyro the Dragon (+16)
Half on (13) Neku Sakuraba (+55)
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Dante
Lightning
BANK
Ganondorf

Going to take things safe in this contest to see how far I go.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Dante - 72.43%
Lightning - 69.11%
Chun-Li - 55.84%
Ganondorf - 71.36%
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Geralt could be weaker than 2B. 2002 Lara Croft beats them both IMO.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Squall/Zelda depends on how much of an affect you believe Breath of the Wild had.

Tifa/Mega Man X depends on how close to Mega Man you think X is.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Anyway, one thought that came up is would Waluigi's 2 seed be a hindrance for rallying? It's not that funny if a highly seeded character won.

Though I guess most people don't know the seed, and besides Draven did win as a 3 seed.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

NowItsAngeTime posted...

charmander6000 posted...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

charmander6000 posted...

abdou posted...

Moonroof posted...

The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.

yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.

Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.

Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks

Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off.

The only reason hes done nice things like the double voting for registered voting is to quiet the down the eventual obnoxious crying

Nope, we were going to do that regardless of what happens. This isn't your first contest season, you should know better.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

NowItsAngeTime posted...

charmander6000 posted...

abdou posted...

Moonroof posted...

The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.

yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.

Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.

Pretty sure the actual point of the contest is to get people to register for the site and get more traffic

Its only half of board 8 that wants it to be about just what the site thinks

Nah, if it was SBAllen would have told us to screw off.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

abdou posted...

Moonroof posted...

The 2 vote thing is going to ruin a lot of the non-rally matches.

yeah I feel like the impact of the 2x registered users votes is being underestimated.

Not really, minus rallies, GameFAQs registered users don't differ too much from random site visitors. I doubt anyone that would have won with more than 53% would lose. Besides, the point of the contest is to see the opinion of the site.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Just confirm the current contests are the Oracle, Bracket Challenge and Spread Betting or am I missing something?
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

He has a good chance, he's not a 2 seed for nothing
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

That was the plan for Jay Solano. Though I guess Link antivotes may have helped him...
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

https://jsfiddle.net/pye3wdou/

Winner: Link
TB: 2742163
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

lol James Sunderland won't even be the weakest character in his match
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

LusterSoldier posted...

charmander6000 posted...

It's a shame that the matches begin at 5pm Pacific, I'll be missing the start of most matches.

It makes sense from SBAllen's side, plus we may get to see larger vote swings which could make things interesting.

We could see larger than expected trend shifts just from the double votes for registered users, as the registered user vote will be more concentrated near the beginning of the match. The early vote totals will likely see an improvement by getting moved to 8:00 PM Eastern, but it will be tough to measure that with the registered user bonus.

Another thing to keep an eye on during the first few days is how quickly the site adjusts to the new starting time. When 12 hour matches first appeared in the 2010 Character Battle, it took less than a week for the site to adjust to the starting time for day matches. I don't expect the new starting time to be an issue for the site as the previous 2 contests had a countdown timer above the current matches counting down to the start of the next matches, and this timer should make a return for this contest too.

Does anyone think it would be better to add the registered user bonus at the end of the match? Rallies tend to do just enough to win so a few thousand votes being added may reverse any rally.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Magus > Vincent
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

It's a shame that the matches begin at 5pm Pacific, I'll be missing the start of most matches.

It makes sense from SBAllen's side, plus we may get to see larger vote swings which could make things interesting.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

I had Rosalina over Geralt for a while too, but that's more due to how little I think of him.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Just wait until the grown up kiddies come home from work!
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Dante is a good choice for the elite line.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Pac-Man's a bit too strong unless we want to move the fodder line to ~25% against the strongest character.

Isaac is a decent choice. So would Lloyd Irving
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Bayonetta wasn't weak in 2013 either, if she could 60/40 her 2013 self with Smash and Bayonetta 2 Riku is going to have a hard time winning, unless you believe in a KH3 hype boost. Which is possible I guess.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

There's no doubt Bayonetta is stronger this year with Smash and Bayonetta 2 (and it being released on the Switch). Whether that's enough to defeat Riku is debatable...
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

On paper it made the most sense; from a game no one played with and is not a fan favourite. Heck some people may not even know her name.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

The general idea with Nana is people wanted to see how weak a Smash character could be.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Soap Operas, considering each season is over 200 episodes a year. Though I guess that's a bit unfair.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Yeah, Marth (and Captain Falcon) represents the upper level of Melee-only strength.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Hoping for a keyblade in the picture
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

bump
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

Stats
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

He also included Arbiter so what does he know...
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

I have five Top 4 seeds losing in the first round in my bracket, based on the BOP that's above average.

In 2010 seven Top 4 seeds lost in the first round and that's with 2010 having the Elite 8 taking up the top seeds.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

You act as if the bracket is always perfectly seeded.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru

For the most part the seeding is okay. You got to remember that the Elite 8 isn't in the main bracket so everyone moves up one seed.
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Congratulations to BKSheikah for winning the guru