Lurker > KamikazePotato

LeonhartFour posted...

so uh

just how strong is Pikachu exactly

Pika Pika
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

By the way, the stats predicted a 52.5% win for Mega Man going into this match
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hahahahahaha Ganondorf
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

This is the last time Mega Man had a sprite round advantage.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3831-mushroom-division-round-3-mega-man-vs-ryu-hayabusa
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Oh jeez it's Pigdorf.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I don't think most of us here care about GameFAQs itself (outside of contests continuing to be run on the front page). This site is Board 8 and a bunch of garbage.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Assuming the Sephiroth-Tifa ratio from 2010 stays, what does Mario get on Samus?

It's not. Sephiroth is weaker now (overall, not specifically weaker than Tifa).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I could buy that the pic is maybe a 1% difference for Tifa.

Costing her to the win? Uh...
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Current STATS predict a 52.5% win for Mega Man over Ganondorf and a 54% win for Bowser over Alucard.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Tifa has the roughest draw of the Division winners coming in. She was the only one guaranteed to face two Noble Nine characters in a row, and neither are ones she can be competitive with - Samus because Samus is like #3 on the site, and Sephiroth because of Hierarchy.

Ganondorf has it pretty bad too, although his chances of beating Mega Man/Pikachu were never high to begin with.

Side note: current STATS predict a 52.5% win for Mega Man over Ganondorf and a 54% win for Bowser over Alucard.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Will probably post updated stats later. But for now I'll just say that this result pegs Samus at both slightly stronger than she was last year and comfortably the #3 in this division.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Paratroopa1 posted...

holy shit alucard

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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Auron looks a clear step (or two) below what he used to be. Goes from 57% on Zero to 57% on Sub-Zero (who is lesser than Zero, it's in the name) and 53% on Geralt. The Sonic match is the first time all year he looked good, which in turn, looks really bad for Sonic.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mario
Samus
Cloud
Zelda
Pikachu
Mega Man
Solid Snake
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

This isn't much higher than what Samus is projected to do. People forgot how strong she is.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Sephiroth got 56.16% on Tifa in 2010.

Samus=Mario means Tifa beats Sephiroth with 54%. Sephiroth is going to go up a lot though, and there's no guarantee Tifa does (her early vote is surprisingly good for FF7).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah, and she ended up like #7 overall in the stats. 2013 Tifa was on this weird level that she's clearly not on in 2018 (or any other contest).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

lordjers posted...

I can only get over Zelda > Snake if Mario wins it all.

Unfortunately, 2013 Link is still projected to do better than this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

For comparison:

Mario (2013c) has a strength of 47.13 against Base Link.
Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link.
Mario wins with 58.74% of the vote!

Mega Man X (2013c) has a strength of 37.97 against Base Link.
Samus (2013c) has a strength of 45.81 against Base Link.
Samus wins with 58.56% of the vote!

(not using 2013 Tifa because her value is weird)
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

creativename posted...

How many rally votes was Vivi estimated to get (net)?

Quite a few, but still. It's not like 100% of Ganondorf's votes go to Mario regardless.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

So fun fact:

Mario (2013c) has a strength of 47.13 against Base Link.
Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link.
Mario wins with 58.74% of the vote!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

creativename posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

How in the world did Vivi beat this.

Heavy LFF presumably.

If you give Mario 100% of Ganondorf's votes, Vivi still (currently) has a higher score than Sephiroth does.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Zelda: "Hey guys, I made a statement for myself by getting over 60% on a really strong Square character!"
Mario: "Hold my beer."
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

How in the world did Vivi beat this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

transcience posted...

next

lets talk Tifa vs. Sephiroth

There's gotta be some sort of Hierarchy there, right? Even if Tifa is indirectly stronger (very debatable), it's Sephiroth vs. Someone Who Isn't Cloud.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Tifa's gonna wind up looking good against Samus again.

Technically speaking...

Mega Man X (2013c) has a strength of 37.97 against Base Link.
Samus (2013c) has a strength of 45.81 against Base Link.
Mega Man X41.44%22,363
Samus58.56%31,597
Samus wins with 58.56% of the vote!

You're not wrong. Today is still jarring after the last few days of close matches.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

So to anyone wondering about those preliminary x-stats I was posting, here's the updated list:

1. Mario
2. lol
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

This is Zelda/Squall Part 2, jesus
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Tifa wouldn't have won regardless but I'm going to blame a tiny bit of this on the awful pic disparity

also lol Sephiroth
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Nintendo is something else this year.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Pics:

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/samus-f-ulti.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/tifa-f-ange.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/mario-f-ulti.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/sephiroth-f-ange.png

Sephiroth and Samus have some heavy pic advantages, I think.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

You guys are focusing on Dab Mario and I'm looking more at Samus ready to blow Tifa's brains out as she vapidly looks at the camera.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Unbridled9 posted...

Hey. I ain't saying it's the best. I'm saying it beats 'Woe is me. I've discovered I'm a lesbian but people don't accept me because I'm an empowered woman who challenges social norms and is a lesbian.'

What's the problem with a story like this, precisely?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Rough picture disadvantages for Tifa and Mario.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Link versus Cloud posted...

What are these numbers based on? 2013 adjusted stats vs base Cloud? Also why aren't Samus and Mario on there?

Some 2013 stats, some results in 2018, a bit of personal adjustment because fuck it, they're not the real X-stats yet and some things looked a bit weird.

Samus, Mario, Tifa, and Sephiroth aren't on the last yet because they haven't had their matches yet.

squexa posted...

Looks mostly reasonable, but still feel that Bowser is a bit underestimated and Ganon is a bit overestimated.

Ganon lines up pretty well with multiple things I checked him against (his 2013 value underrates him). It's not so much that he's being overestimated in the stats as it is that Sonic looks real bad right now.

Bowser so far has done strictly worse (outside of the Kirby match) and historically has been weaker than Ganondorf. We'll see how both of them measure up in the losers bracket.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Link versus Cloud posted...

How stronk does Zelda look right now?

KamikazePotato posted...

Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change.

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02
Ganondorf - 44.82
Sonic - 44.46
Bowser - 42.42
Auron - 40.82
Alucard - 39.60

Zelda is legitimizing her result against Squall and Aeris today. Other N9 members are going to have to bring their A-game from here on out.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, it doesnt go out of style until the Hierarchy is in play

ZSS is the only way Tifa can win because it would invoke cup size Hierarchy
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hey man, Samus in 2013 most recent game was Other M, and she looked strong as ever that year! Samus is a character based entirely on design and Smash Bros, and that never goes out of style.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Snake had reason to drop, or at least evidence that he would. Samus...well, I wouldn't be upset if she did bad, but it would be a weird result.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change.

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02
Ganondorf - 44.82
Sonic - 44.46
Bowser - 42.42
Auron - 40.82
Alucard - 39.60

mnkboy907 posted...

Why is Snake above Zelda?

Oh deleted now.

Because I put an / instead of an * in a line of Excel.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Hard for me to see this going below 54% for Samus. She is really strong.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Nier Automata came out like last year.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Averia posted...

I like the logic of Snake getting 2 big cuts, than Zelda starting making gains again

This happens a lot in this contest. Vote totals are small enough that a moderate change within a five minutes period feels like a massive shift, when in reality it's just going to equalize over the next few updates anyway, which leads to 'big' cuts followed by 'big' gains.

LeonhartFour posted...

n_n

I prefer this narrative though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I feel like Sonic should reach over and tell Snake, "YOU'RE TOO SLOW!"

Looks like he took that to heart.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Yeah, you could see the momentum on that one slowing down.

Next few updates could be crucial.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Eight cuts. They're getting smaller, though...
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Seven cuts in a row.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

The UK vote isn't the big thing propping up Snake here (although it's a factor) - it's that he's winning basically the entire right half of the map. That means you started gaining ground earlier than 3 AM. Tifa was the same scenario and her comeback started in full...uh, now.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Zelda has this match locked up. You don't lose this much ground overnight against anyone unless you're a Mega Man character.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.