Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

5tarscream posted...

ACC - NCST (-16.5)
American - CIN
Big 12 - TCU (-25.5)
Big Ten - PUR
C-USA - FIU (+2)
MAC - OHIO
MWC - UNLV (+2.5)
PAC-12 - UCLA
SEC - ALA
Sun Belt - ULL

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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Someone actually moved up a level! I can't remember the last time that happened. I made level 7 way too hard.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
5tarscream
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:
Paratroopa1

Level 5:

Level 4:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Marquee games:
South Florida (+11) @ Central Florida (O/U 63.5)
California (+7) @ UCLA (O/U 64)
Ohio State (-11.5) @ Michigan (O/U 50.5)
Indiana (+2.5) @ Purdue (O/U 47)
Old Dominion (+12) @ Middle Tennessee (O/U 49.5)
Alabama (-4.5) @ Auburn (O/U 47.5)
Clemson (-14) @ South Carolina (O/U 46.5)
Notre Dame (-2.5) @ Stanford (O/U 57)
Washington State (+9) @ Washington (O/U 48.5)
Colorado (+10.5) @ Utah (O/U 56)

Told you that games where both teams were 5-6 would also be included on the marquee.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

The last few years? 2007 was a full decade ago!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

You'd be surprised by how few teams are already locked out of bowls... or locked in to them. We should be up to 61 clinches now, with a minimum 3 more guaranteed due to Week 13 schedules in the Big 12 and Pac-12. Will your team make it in?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I need to take some deep breaths.

I'm a fan of college football, but I don't really make a big deal about certain teams. I root for Rutgers because they're the only FBS team in the state, and I hated Ohio State even before Rutgers was in the Big Ten, but most of the time, I like upsets.The more chaos, the better, even if it means I lost one of my picks in Ladder or something. I honestly never thought I'd become outraged about a college football game, unless it was a team getting robbed by an egregious officiating error. Watching the Georgia-Auburn game, I'm smiling about Auburn absolutely housing the Bulldogs even though if I stop to think about it, I want Georgia to win the SEC--I have no problem with the Dawgs, and the only two teams still alive in the West are Alabama and Auburn.

Then they gave a gamebreak that Florida State came out of nowhere to pull within 3 of Clemson and just recovered a fumble. NO. Not like this. I don't even necessarily agree that Clemson belonged in the top 4, and when I calm down, this actually gives NC State life in the Atlantic, which means more of that chaos I love so much. But I don't think that the chance of NC State winning the ACC is enough. A few weeks ago, I thought that the UF-FSU game would be Florida's last gasp at bowl eligibility, but I resigned myself to the fact that FSU would be the favorite--but Florida had a chance of keeping the Noles out of a bowl, right?

No. Now is not the time for Clemsonning to make a comeback--not when it all but makes it a certainty that Florida State will still be in a bowl game. And, yes, the Noles' lofty preseason ranking would make their losing record even sweeter, but it's Florida State. Expectations could've been legitimately low and I'd still revel in their every loss. Please, Clemson, if you want to stay out of the playoff, just job to South Carolina or something. Don't do this.

Wow. Clemson came through for me even better than I could've dreamed. ESPN's weekly edition of "bad beats" showed that by continuing to run plays at the point where they could've gone into victory formation, they swung it from a Florida State cover to a Clemson cover. (Actually, they did a really whammy on bettors, as that final touchdown also pushed the game from "under" to "over"--and did both by such a small margin that FSU could've preserved both the under and a push against the spread simply by blocking the PAT attempt.) And this means that Florida State is 0-9 against the spread.

Of course, the sad thing is, even with how bad they are, they'll easily be favored in all three of their remaining games, so they can fall to 0-12 against the spread and still make a bowl game. Come on, Gators, don't let them through!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ACC: Miami (-19)
American: Houston
Big 12: TCU
Big Ten: Iowa
C-USA: Old Dominion
MAC: Northern Illinois
MWC: Colorado State (-32.5)
Pac-12: Arizona State
SEC: Missouri
Sun Belt: South Alabama

I was going to go with Boise State as well, but when evaluating which of my potential single- digit favorites picks I was least confident in, it came up ACC, which really had no good choices for a super-fave.

But, yeah, MWC has no good single-digit favorites.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

This marquee seems awfully lacking...note that the rejects were literally FIU-FAU (which would've made it before FIU went in the tank these past couple of weeks, giving the Owls a legit 2-game lead) and Middle Tennessee-Western Kentucky (the only match in the FBS where both teams are going for their 6th win). And no, those two being rejected doesn't mean that C-USA is off the map, either.

Of course, we've already got 7 nearly-assured matches for next week, plus any 5-6 vs. 5-6 matches that develop.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
5tarscream
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:

Level 5:
Paratroopa1

Level 4:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Marquee games:
Michigan (+7.5) @ Wisconsin (O/U 40)
SMU (+12.5) @ Memphis (O/U 75.5)
Kentucky (+21.5) @ Georgia (O/U 50.5)
Navy (+17.5) @ Notre Dame (O/U 60.5)
Army (+3) @ North Texas (O/U 58)

Army on the marquee outside of Week 15? What is this world coming to!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Actually, it appears no one advanced, so it'll be up momentarily.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Bump

It will be up later today; I just need to get some sleep so I can better process what to do with this week's marquee. It's going to be unconventional, I'll tell you that.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...And now there isn't. Fumble recovery, Boise State; Broncos win 59-52 in overtime.

Hawaii's game is still going on, but I doubt it's televised on the mainland outside of the Internet and their opponent's home region.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

There is literally still a televised game going on. And it's not Hawaii.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

kevwaffles posted...

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

kevwaffles posted...

Uh, I don't think division standings matter that much for bowl placement, but UK finishes below South Carolina if you don't beat Georgia.

How the hell did they win 5?

By trouncing Arkansas. Who else in the East besides you and Georgia was gonna beat them? No one, that's who.

Huh....

Well... they're gonna lose to Clemson by 90 on the same day we beat Hooker U like a drum... and we won head to head, and we travel better. I'm still guessing we'd get Citrus over them, but if not, if Bama Georgia, Auburn and LSU are all out of the way we'd still get Outback which technically is same tier as Citrus (the Citrus is just higher historically, like the Cotton was for a long time, technically it was lower than than the Peach for SEC, but the Cotton still had more history so I'd have rather gone Cotton than Peach myself.

Hm, yeah, I suppose you do have to consider historical fanbase size. Though I still feel like MSU has a better shot at that Orange bid than LSU--especially since I think the NYS are obligated to take the highest-ranked available teams.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

So the dreams scenario for us is....

Lose to Georgia. Georgia wins out.
Beat Hooker U.
Auburn beats Bama.
Bama
Stays top 4 and doesn't make Conference Title.
LSU wins out.
Miss St. loses again.

If that happens,

Bama and Georgia to the Playoff
Auburn to the Peach.
LSU to the Orange
Kentucky to the Citrus
MSU to the Gator....
??? To the Outback

I, uh, think there's a better scenario for you.

Beat Georgia
Alabama beats Auburn
Georgia beats Alabama
Big 12 shoots itself in the foot with its conference title game yet again
Now Alabama and Georgia are both in the playoff along with the ACC and Big Ten champions

MSU wins out
LSU doesn't (this is actually probably better because MSU has the head-to-head over both you and LSU, the Bulldogs shouldn't fall far after tonight's loss, and besides, A&M beating LSU is probably more likely than MSU losing either of their last two)
Auburn to the Peach
Mississippi State to the Orange
Kentucky to the Citrus
LSU to the Gator

Actually, if MSU loses one as well, Kentucky might still be no worse than the Citrus. Their SOS seems a little too weak to get them all the way up to the Orange, but they definitely can end up as the #4 team in the conference.

So, yeah. You can totally beat Georgia and still get your Citrus goal.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I'm sure this is what has been discussed already but our game was 12 and I'm just going home now so yeah

With Miami/Clemson still to play who the fuck is 4th after that game assuming we go chalk? Bama 1, Miami or Clemson 2, Oklahoma 3 and 4 is? Like I'd say Wisconsin but I don't think they are favorites to beat us. Is it us? Because that feels weird. Is it an SEC team? Do they just say you're all dubious so in goes UCF?

Like we couldn't think of the obvious answer but we've also been drinking for 13 hours right now so might be overlooking something

Assuming that "us" is Ohio State?

It depends. Obviously if Wisconsin wins, it's Wisconsin. If Ohio State does win? It probably is you if Miami beats Clemson, but it might be Miami if Clemson is their first loss. Which feels even weirder than having two SEC teams in if Alabama is the conference champion, but with so few 1-loss teams in power conferences, it seems like that's how it would go.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

Agree with most of this (though Auburn is a 100% lock if they win out) but there is no way TCU should be ahead of USC in the pecking order now.

They aren't ahead of USC in the pecking order now. Hell, they probably won't even be ahead of USC entering Conference Championship Weekend. They just have a more favorable setup. If TCU wins out, it means winning a rematch with Oklahoma. At best, USC will be looking to avenge their loss to Washington State in the Pac-12 Championship Game. If you still consider Washington the favorite in the Apple Cup, however, that means USC is looking at the prospect of an unranked Stanford that they've already beaten once as a Pac-12 Championship Game opponent (remember, Stanford still has to play Notre Dame). I absolutely believe that if TCU avenges their loss to Oklahoma while USC is beating Stanford for the second time this year, TCU would jump USC.

...But would it matter? Yes, technically TCU would be the proper conference champion, but the playoff committee set precedent last year for snubbing a conference champion while taking another team from that conference. If TCU wins that rematch, TCU and OU would be 1-1 against each other and 7-1 against the rest of the Big 12, even losing to the same conference rival--Iowa State. Except Oklahoma actually played 3 FBS teams in nonconference including a win over Ohio State, while TCU had an FCS opponent and their Power 5 nonconference game was against a sub-.500 Arkansas. How, other than the arbitrary fact that the game that TCU won was officially the championship game, can you possibly say that the Horned Frogs have a better resume than the Sooners? You can't.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

bng_mmmk posted...

inb4 Kentucky upsets Georgia

...Damnit I forgot that Georgia still has another conference game. That's actually just as plausible loss as GT is. Okay, that makes things slightly more plausible that there won't be a double-SEC-block on the chaos scenarios.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Didn't have enough room for the other potential Go5 representatives to the NYS. Obviously UCF is the favorite, and Memphis and South Florida, also from the American, are #2 and #3. If Memphis fails to win the West and the West champion (which I think would be Houston, but there might be a chance for something weird to happen in a three-way tie) still wins the title, that opens things up for the MWC or MAC champion.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So, scenarios:

Win out and you're in: Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, probably Auburn but they might get passed up for a 1-loss Alabama or maybe even a 1-loss Miami.

Will definitely be in if they win out and Alabama and Miami are both undefeated, but might have trouble if one or both is a one-loss non-champion: TCU, Ohio State.

Not in control of their own destiny, but doesn't need any major upsets to get in if they win out: USC (gets in by winning out if Ohio State loses to Michigan but still wins the Big Ten), maybe Washington State (might need a 3-loss Ohio State to beat a one-loss Wisconsin, with Michigan again being the most likely spoiler.

Probably could get in if they win their conference and things go right, but there's no clear path to doing so: Oklahoma State (sadly, West Virginia upsetting Oklahoma to set up a four-way tie at 7-2 would result in Oklahoma and TCU still getting into the conference title game), Washington (needs Cal to upset Stanford to be able to win the Pac-12 North).

Needs to win out and something stupid to happen (e.g., Georgia not only loses to Alabama but also to Georgia Tech and Clemson not only loses to Miami but also to South Carolina and not only does West Virginia win out, but TCU loses to Texas Tech and Iowa State also wins out [in which case, "winning out" for WVU would involve winning a rematch with Oklahoma State, because if it's a three-way tie for first between OU, OKST, and WVU, each of which would be 1-1 against the other two, the next tiebreaker is record against the next team in the standings, which would be Iowa State): Notre Dame, Stanford, maybe WVU but probably not.

There might theoretically be a scenario that gets them in, but there just isn't a plausible one: Penn State (needs Ohio State to lose to both Illinois and Michigan to get to the CCG, plus Michigan State to lose another game), Michigan State (more likely to get to CCG, but less likely to get into playoff if they win it), Michigan (even less likely to make CCG, as they need both MSU and PSU to lose another one), Central Florida (there just aren't enough games remaining for Alabama to get below them even without an SEC title and I'm pretty sure at least three other conferences will have someone)

No hope of making the top four, but could still get into a New Year's Six game (Power Five edition): LSU (might need nothing more than Alabama losing to Georgia and still getting into the playoff, since they're technically the second-place team in the SEC West if Alabama wins the Iron Bowl and therefore "should" get the SEC's autobid--but even though Auburn probably will, it's still a decent shot) North Carolina State (needs either Miami or Clemson--more likely Miami because Clemson has an FCS cupcake--to lose all remaining games so that they can become the second-highest-ranked ACC team, giving them the champion's autobid since the actual champion is in the playoff), Iowa State (most likely needs WVU to go 0-2 and TTU to go 2-0, plus KSU to beat OKST--but, yes, they are still mathematically alive to face OU in the CCG), Texas (Amazingly enough, if Texas goes 2-0 and neither TCU nor Oklahoma State wins another game this season, the Big 12 Championship Game will actually be a Red River Shootout rematch, giving the Horns a shot at an autobid. Of course, this involves both Kansas and Baylor beating ranked teams on the road, so yeah, this is just a technicality)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay, so much for my prognosticating skills.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Untimed down! ...MSU's going to get the TD, go for two and the win, and lose by one. Calling it now.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

Meow1000 posted...

After dropping 3 pick sixes, Miami apparently didn't drop that one. I wasn't watching anymore.

Now I always shade to the side of Notre Dame being frauds, but wow I didn't think they'd be this fraudulent.

Miami turned from an insanely luck team to a good one in a flash these last two weeks.

The committee has to be so happy with the way this week went. Everything is neat and tidy. No worries about Wisconsin, no worries about the SEC.

Oklahoma, Wisconsin, winner of Clemson/Miami, winner of SEC.

Barring some really bad losses, its really easy for them now.

If Wisconsin loses and Georgia wins the SEC I can see Bama still making it....

But that's no fun.

So let's say Wisconsin loses, and Bama wins. (Undefeated)

Who the hell is #4?

1 loss Miami?
2 loss Ohio State?
2 loss Washington?

I'd say, yeah, 1-loss Miami. If Wisconsin loses the B1G Championship Game, Clemson beats previously unbeaten Miami for the ACC, Oklahoma remains at 1 loss and wins the Big 12, and Alabama is still unbeaten, I give it to Miami.

If Miami is the unbeaten winner of the ACC? Uh...Might be Ohio State. Might be Washington.

Also, remember that there are two ways that Bama could wind up at one loss. What if Auburn wins the SEC? Could we have both Auburn and Alabama in the playoff? Damnit, now I need a "full list of scenarios".
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Okay, well, this is different.

Based on the conditionals I came up with before, Alabama and Notre Dame both losing should result in Clemson being #1. But I can't imagine Clemson at #1. Honestly, if Alabama loses, it really should be Miami at #1, because they'd clearly be the top remaining undefeated team and the idea of a 1-loss #1 when there are still multiple unbeaten Power Five schools seems weird.

But yeah, we might be switching from "if Alabama and Georgia are both unbeaten entering the SEC Championship Game, do they both make it in?" to "If 1-loss Clemson beats previously unbeaten Miami in the ACC Championship Game, are they both in?"

The answer being "if Auburn wins the SEC, then probably." ...Actually, it might not even take that. Though this speculation's premature because Bama has a chance to win this in regulation.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Meow1000 posted...

Florida State's quarterback threw the game well before you posted that.

Also Georgia is getting viciously mutilated (40-10!).

I can't really see any justification I can think of for leaving them top 4 if Notre Dame wins given TCU/Oklahoma play each other.

Notre Dame winning probably justifies it more than them losing! Though you're right that with #5 and #6 playing each other and a loss in front of them, the winner of OU-TCU should be in. And...yeah, despite the scare, Clemson won't fall out, not with a win over Auburn.

Rough predictions (I'm just going to assume the Alabama win, because I've got enough conditionals):

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame (with win)/Clemson (with Miami win)
3. Clemson (with ND win)/Oklahoma (with win and Miami win)/Miami (with win and TCU win)
4. Oklahoma (with win and ND win)/Miami (with win and OU win)/TCU (with win)
5. Wisconsin
6. Georgia
7. Auburn (with ND win)/Notre Dame (with loss)
8. Ohio State (with ND and OU wins)/Auburn (with Miami win)/Oklahoma (with loss and ND win)
9. USC (with ND and OU wins)/Ohio State(with ND and TCU wins or Miami and OU wins)/Oklahoma (with loss and ND loss)
10. TCU (with loss and ND win)/USC (with ND and TCU wins or Miami and OU wins)/Ohio State (with TCU and Miami wins)
11. Miami (with loss)/TCU (with loss and Miami win)/USC (with TCU and Miami wins)
12. Oklahoma State
13. Penn State
14. Washington State
15. UCF
16. Washington
17. LSU
18. Memphis
19. NC State
20. Northwestern (with win)/Michigan State (with Northwestern loss)
21. Michigan State (with Northwestern win)/Mississippi State (with Northwestern loss)
22. Mississippi State (with Northwestern win)/Virginia Tech (with Northwestern loss)
23. Virginia Tech (with Northwestern win)/West Virginia (with Northwestern loss)
24. West Virginia (with Northwestern win)/Stanford (with Northwestern loss)
25. Stanford (with Northwestern win)/Michigan (with Northwestern loss)

...Yes, the Wolverines' SOS is really that bad. And no, I wasn't happy with the possibility of putting Georgia one spot ahead of Auburn, but I feel like the committee will still be hesitant to drop Georgia very far.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Meow1000 posted...

Did Clemson forget games have two halves?

Love how worthless college teams find ways to lose games so routinely.

Down 3 and you recover a fumble on the Clemson 40. First play you throw the ball down the middle to a wide-open defender for the easiest interception he'll ever have in his life, then they walk down the field for a touchdown with no resistance by the defense to end the game.

(Someone on Skype called the first play interception after that fumble, too)

Ah, good. Guess I could've saved myself some agita by actually switching to Clemson-FSU after that update; because FSU's threat apparently lasted just long enough to give anyone tuned to the Georgia-Auburn game the misconception that Clemson might lose.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I need to take some deep breaths.

I'm a fan of college football, but I don't really make a big deal about certain teams. I root for Rutgers because they're the only FBS team in the state, and I hated Ohio State even before Rutgers was in the Big Ten, but most of the time, I like upsets.The more chaos, the better, even if it means I lost one of my picks in Ladder or something. I honestly never thought I'd become outraged about a college football game, unless it was a team getting robbed by an egregious officiating error. Watching the Georgia-Auburn game, I'm smiling about Auburn absolutely housing the Bulldogs even though if I stop to think about it, I want Georgia to win the SEC--I have no problem with the Dawgs, and the only two teams still alive in the West are Alabama and Auburn.

Then they gave a gamebreak that Florida State came out of nowhere to pull within 3 of Clemson and just recovered a fumble. NO. Not like this. I don't even necessarily agree that Clemson belonged in the top 4, and when I calm down, this actually gives NC State life in the Atlantic, which means more of that chaos I love so much. But I don't think that the chance of NC State winning the ACC is enough. A few weeks ago, I thought that the UF-FSU game would be Florida's last gasp at bowl eligibility, but I resigned myself to the fact that FSU would be the favorite--but Florida had a chance of keeping the Noles out of a bowl, right?

No. Now is not the time for Clemsonning to make a comeback--not when it all but makes it a certainty that Florida State will still be in a bowl game. And, yes, the Noles' lofty preseason ranking would make their losing record even sweeter, but it's Florida State. Expectations could've been legitimately low and I'd still revel in their every loss. Please, Clemson, if you want to stay out of the playoff, just job to South Carolina or something. Don't do this.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

BTN just put up a graphic that the last time a Big Ten team had a longer conference losing streak than the 16-game one that Rutgers snapped earlier this year was Wisconsin's 19-game streak from 1989-1992, and that Wisconsin was 3-1 in the next four games after the streak and won the Rose Bowl in 1993, and Rutgers has also gone 3-1.

I think it's hilarious that they'd even suggest that there's a chance Rutgers will be a contender any time soon. Ranked at some point in a season, sure. The 2018 schedule is mad backloaded; I can honestly say that a 6-1 start next year is plausible, possibly even 7-1. But then they'll go 0-for-November, because their November schedule is brutal.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Well, Pac-12 is out of the playoff picture.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 5: San Francisco -3.5
Bonus: 6
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Well RIP all of us.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Well, yeah. Those MAC lines were insane; I don't know if you guys noticed, but I actually willingly took an underdog, because I just couldn't understand why, with a clean injury report, EMU was a road favorite over CMU. It didn't make sense at all, and sure enough, CMU won by 12.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Crescent-Moon posted...

My guess:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami
7. Wisconsin
8. TCU
9. Washington
10. Auburn

It seems fairly straightforward.

I'd probably switch Wisconsin and TCU there; the Horned Frogs were already ahead of the Badgers last week and played a superior opponent.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Also, carrying this over from the previous topic:

5tarscream posted...

ACC - Pitt
American - Tulane
Big 12 - Texas Tech
Big Ten - Northwestern
C-USA - Florida Intl
MAC - Northern Illinois -32
MW - Boise State
PAC-12 - USC 13.5
SEC - Georgia
Sun Belt - Georgia State

Huh, 6 out of 10 the same, including the same choice of at-least-10-but-less-than-20. Not surprised; a lot of those really leapt out.

Paratroopa1 posted...

Ohio State favored by 15 points over Michigan State? Good god, what?

That's not even the most ridiculous line of the week imo.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

American: Central Florida (38.5-point favorite)
ACC: Pitt
Big 12: Texas Tech
Big Ten: Northwestern
C-USA: Florida International
MAC: Central Michigan
MWC: Fresno State
Pac-12: USC (13.5-point favorite)
SEC: South Carolina
Sun Belt: Georgia State
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I got it up in time for MACtion this time! ...of course, in order to do so, I have to put it up before the CFP top 25 is even out. Not that it matters because there are definitely at least 5 games that will feature top 25 teams.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
5tarscream
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:

Level 5:
Paratroopa1

Level 4:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Marquee games:
Michigan State (+15) @ Ohio State (O/U 55)
Georgia (-2.5) @ Auburn (O/U 47)
Alabama (-14) @ Mississippi State (O/U 51)
Notre Dame (-3) @ Miami (FL) (O/U 57.5)
TCU (+6.5) @ Oklahoma (O/U 62.5)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Underleveled posted...

15

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Keep up
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah, I didn't actually look at the missing games. I just remembered a bunch of teams losing out on their cupcakes and assumed it was that scenario.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Predictions for this week's top 25:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. Miami (FL)
7. TCU
8. Wisconsin
9. Washington
10. Auburn
11. Oklahoma State
12. Michigan State
13. Ohio State
14. USC
15. Mississippi State
16. Penn State
17. Virginia Tech
18. UCF
19. Washington State
20. West Virginia
21. Michigan
22. Memphis
23. Northwestern
24. Iowa
25. Iowa State

...Yeah, I really don't know near the end. I think that with those big wins they have, ISU is a good candidate to stay in the top 25... those final three are basically determined by head-to-head. Iowa's got the big blowout of Ohio State yesterday and beat Iowa State (which still has the resume to stick around; being the lone blemish for both of your conference's top teams will do that), but lost to a Northwestern team that is also 6-3 with an upset of Michigan State.

I do think Miami will jump TCU and Wisconsin due to the quality of their opponent, and that South Carolina is a good enough opponent that Georgia won't be jumped yet.

Other teams that could get in there include LSU, NC State, Toledo, and South Florida.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

The chances of 5-6 teams actually getting shut out of bowls is very slim, especially since every one of them lost their easiest game and would likely be given a special waiver even if by some miracle they don't still need more bowl teams once all of the 6-6 or better teams have been placed.

The one GT lost was UCF. We can't argue that that was our easiest game at this point.

Oh. Huh.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 4: Philly 30+
Bonus: Philly-Denver
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

EmDubyaSee posted...

Uncalled offensive Pass Interference to a ridiculous degree there.

Absolute bull shit loss.

Even more of a screw job than Florida was.

It could be worse. It could be uncalled targeting, which is what will likely going to lead to Rutgers missing out on a bowl at 5-7. (Final drive of their Week 2 loss to Eastern Michigan. The only bright side is that even with that undeserved win, EMU will likely come up well short of a bowl game, unlike last year where the refs gave Central Michigan a win over Oklahoma State and the Chippewas wound up right at 6-6 and only made a bowl game because of that gift.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

Whelp, GT is gonna miss out on a bowl game by going 5-6. Fuck everything.

The UVA kicker even somehow hit BOTH FUCKING GOALPOSTS and the PAT still went in.

The chances of 5-6 teams actually getting shut out of bowls is very slim, especially since every one of them lost their easiest game and would likely be given a special waiver even if by some miracle they don't still need more bowl teams once all of the 6-6 or better teams have been placed.

Meow1000 posted...

Wisconsin getting in would be such a horrendous thing for the game, though. They would become the new textbook reason to fill your schedule with as many cupcakes as possible, just like we had with the BCS.

That's what worries me.

The Big Ten is one of the conferences that plays 9 conference games, and I'm pretty sure they're one of the ones that makes everyone play at least one Power Five team...or BYU or Army. And, yes, Wisconsin used BYU for that requirement, and BYU is having one of their worst years ever, but you know what? One of their Group of Five opponents is literally the favorite to win their conference. Their non-conference schedule isn't great, but it certainly could be a whole lot worse.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

...I'm not seeing it.

It's certainly possible that a 2-loss SEC champion other than Auburn could make the playoff, but I think they'd need help. They wouldn't be ahead of a 1-loss Notre Dame, nor a 1-loss ACC Champion (either Clemson or Miami, whose loss would be to Notre Dame), they wouldn't be ahead of the Big Ten champion...and they probably wouldn't be ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 Champion. So for Kentucky to make the playoff, even if they somehow win out, would probably need one of these to happen:

1. Iowa State wins the Big 12. Preferably in the fashion of "Oklahoma State wins out for the regular season, Oklahoma beats TCU, Iowa State wins out except for the game against Oklahoma State and gets the undisputed second place by virtue of their head-to-head over both OU and TCU and then wins the rematch with OK State".
2. NC State wins out to take the ACC.

If both of those happen, a 2-loss SEC champ would definitely still be good...oh, wait, they might still get blocked by a 1-loss runner-up from their own conference, because LOL committee. The Pac-12 is also a consideration, but seems unlikely to be a concern.

Alternatively, Miami winning out completely helps because it knocks both Notre Dame and Clemson out and replaces them with just Miami.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

As someone who thinks Lane Kiffin is a complete tool, I'll say it's pretty obvious this is probably a joke. He should face repercussions for it, though. It's a bad defense even if it's true.

Exactly. That's not something you should joke about.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Dr_Football posted...

I am fully prepared for a OU-Iowa St Big 12 title rematch

I have also accepted that Georgia is going to make the playoff this year after losing to Bama in the SEC title game

We shall see. Let us assume that nobody outside the current 4-way tie for first place defeats anyone in it. The three games in question are TCU-OU, OU-OKST, and OKST-ISU.

If TCU defeats OU, they're in the title game. Likewise, ISU is in the title game if they beat OKST. So if both of those happen, it's TCU-ISU. If TCU wins, but ISU loses, TCU will face the Bedlam winner. If ISU wins, but TCU loses...it's probably ISU-OU regardless of how Bedlam goes, because an OK State win in Bedlam would create a triangle and OU probably gets the tiebreaker due to rankings. If neither TCU nor ISU wins, it's probably OU-TCU if OU wins Bedlam (OKST, TCU, and ISU would be in the triangular tie, and TCU would have the rankings edge and the head-to-head over OKST), but definitely OKST-ISU if OKST wins Bedlam because the three-way tie for second place wouldn't be triangular; it'd be ISU 2-0, OU 1-1, TCU 0-2. At least, I'm assuming that the tiebreakers work that way; I know that the whole UT-OU-TTU kerfuffle came because the three teams were 1-1 against each other and 10-0 against the rest of their schedules.

OK State is considered a slight favorite in Bedlam. That title never seemed more appropriate.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

kevwaffles posted...

I'm gonna go with Toledo anyway, but MAC does have a lot of Tuesday and Wednesday games in the remaining weeks, not just this one. Level 7 is gonna be tough if we can't pick those games.

Posting your next week's picks in the previous week's topic if I'm running late, the way you did, is always an option.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Sorry, been kind of busy, and then I had connection problems at the start of class which is when I often end up doing this.

...wait, I've seriously already lost for the week? There's no more MAC games? Well, crap. It's a good thing that WMU lost anyway, because the rules state that once one of your teams kicks off, all of them are locked in, which means that technically 5tarscream submitted a pick with 9 auto-losses. I was going to just make him re-pick, but that's not an option.

Rules
- State which level you're on when you make your pick. Usually it should be obvious, but say it anyway.
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- Conferences featured in games may be imposed at certain levels, but unless otherwise stated, any game(s) featuring two FBS teams are eligible.
- I'll list some marquee games each week, but you're not restricted to these. If you pick other games, make sure that your lines can be verified.

Level 1: Pick one game against the spread.

Level 2: Down goes Goliath. Pick a ranked team to lose. You cannot pick an underdog of more than 7 points.

Level 3: Pick three over/unders; 2 out of three passes.

Level 4: Three-team teaser. Tease the lines six points in your favor, two wins and a push or three wins needed to pass.

Level 5: Pleaser. Pick one game and move the line 7 points to your detriment.

Level 6: Something fishy in Vegas. Pick one game, please both sides of the spread by 15 points and both sides of the O/U line by 25 points, creating two sets of mutually-exclusive but not all-inclusive picks. If any of these picks is a winner, you pass.

Level 7: Pick one straight-up winner from each of the ten FBS conferences. You may select no more than two double-digit favorites and no more than one of these can be a favorite of at least 20 points.

Level 7:
5tarscream
kevwaffles
TsunamiXXVIII

Level 6:

Level 5:
Paratroopa1

Level 4:
jcgamer107
KCF0107

Marquee games:
Penn State (-9) @ Michigan State (O/U 48)
Auburn (-15) @ Texas A&M (O/U 52)
South Carolina (+23.5) @ Georgia (O/U 45)
Clemson (-7.5) @ North Carolina State (O/U 51)
Iowa State (+2.5) @ West Virginia (O/U 60)
Stanford (+2.5) @ Washington State (O/U 55)
Oklahoma (+2.5) @ Oklahoma State (O/U 76)
LSU (+21) @ Alabama (O/U 48.5)
Virginia Tech (-2.5) @ Miami (FL) (O/U 50)
Arizona (+7.5) @ USC (O/U 73)

Told you there was double the marquee. Seven games between two CFP top 25 teams, two where a CFP top 25 team faces a team that's also receiving votes in both the AP poll and the Coaches' Poll, and two more where a CFP top 25 team faces a team receiving votes in the Coaches' Poll but not the AP poll. (Yes, that means I could've even added an 11th.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

It'll be up later today.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Level 3: Atlanta -4.5, Indy +10.5
Bonus: 6
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.