| Board List | |
|---|---|
| Topic | PokemonExpert44 is SUSPENDED |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 4:21:45 PM #20 | Anybody else remember when his gimmick was being a fervent Christian and him making, like, ten topics about it until he realized people wouldn't give him the attention he wanted that way?
--- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 4:18:27 PM #146 | Philip027 posted...
That's not a rephrasing; that's an entirely different scenario.I am literally describing the exact results of the selfsame scenario. The only thing I'm excluding is the aliens methodology. In this scenario you simply don't know the methodology, but you know the results. For all you know the aliens methodology could be the exact same as the original problem in every single way. You are just ignorant to it. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 4:12:40 PM #143 | Let's rephrase the question then.
I am an alien. You have a choice. You can take Box A and B, or just Box B. I have done this 999 times and the result have been perfectly consistent. Every person who took Box A and Box B made 1,000. Every person who took Box B made 1,000,000. Do you choose to take both Boxes, or just Box B? --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Yuck or Yum: Tuna on Pizza |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 2:58:55 PM #12 | Quality tuna on pizza would probably be pretty good if it had the right toppings.
--- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 1:33:44 PM #125 | the_rowan posted...
No, it's not "by definition" because the alien can be wrong. He just happened to approach a few thousand people he thought would analyze it one way and was wrong about you, so you get nothing and he feels bad he predicted wrong. There is nothing logically inconsistent about the interpretation because you picked only B, nor is there any reason that results from this analysis that leads one to pick only B.The alien never said that he is wrong sometimes, nor has he implied he's even fallible. He said that he's done this prediction 999 times and been correct every time. You are assuming he can be wrong even though there has never been an event proving that is possible. Doe posted... What about if you hire a hypnotherapist in secret to convince you of this but also program you such that once the puzzle is revealed to you, you remember so you can pick A + B and get all the money?Alies probably got his hands on the secret recording your hypnotherapist uses to get off to after their appointments. :( --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 1:25:07 PM #119 | Doe posted...
But even as you're saying all this, the money is either already in the box or not in the box. If you pick B and the million is in there, that factually means you could have picked A + B to get $1000 + a million. If we accept that the creature is potentially fallible, then we have to approach the problem as one of probability. If that's the case, then the only way to improve your chances of winning one million dollars is to live a life prior to the prediction in which you acknowledge that determinism is possible, that accepting the resulting logic of determinism is reasonable, and acknowledging that attempting to beat an either omniscient or near-omniscient being at a guessing game is a silly endeavor. You might as well ask, what's Game Theory's reason for doing a good deed if there is no guarantee of a reward? And the answer is, the absence of a guarantee does not mean that doing a good deed cannot have an exceptional reward, but not doing a good deed guarantees there is no reward. The "good deed" that you need to do here, prior to the alien's prediction, is developing the reasoning needed to conclude that picking Box B will always result in more money. The issue that many don't see here is that the choice you make in this game, if life is NOT deterministic, does not actually happen after the Alien makes his prediction. The choice you make in this game is your entire life up to the point the Alien makes the prediction. Your thought process after the alien makes the prediction is merely the consequences of your life up to that point. You are merely learning the results when you pick the boxes. You made your choice in advance but you just weren't aware of it. There are only two results: You pick both and get a thousand, or you pick B and get a million. The alien told you this is the case. You just didn't believe him. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 1:11:55 PM #115 | the_rowan posted...
The alien simply predicts that people will take both each time and only approaches people he assesses as smart enough to realize that taking box A adds 1000 dollars no matter what he predicted. His prediction does not change retroactively based on what you decide. If he was wrong about your intelligence and you open box B, you get nothing. The most you could ever get is $1000. You can believe that, and it could be technically true, but by definition if you pick just Box B then that is not what the Alien is doing. This doesn't change the fact that it's deterministic, however. If you are inclined to pick Box B based on the reasoning I've used, then by logical deduction I can say with near certainty that the Alien is not just pre-filtering Both Box players. Vis a vis, this is only possible if someone with with fatalistic reasoning were to be approached. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 1:04:59 PM #112 | IceCreamOnStero posted...
Except the alien's prediction is irrelevant, the boxes are set by the time you make your choice, and regardless of which of the two scenarios you are in, picking bith boxes is the better choice. We have to presuppose the alien at least has powers of prediction that go well beyond our current capacity to rationalize the world. After all, the alien has successfully guessed the last 999 events. If you don't understand how statistically impossible that is by pure chance alone, let me put it this way: If you flipped a coin every second, the average time it would take to get 999 heads (or tails) in a row would take longer than the Heat Death of the Universe. The only way this result would be even statistically feasible on chance alone would be if humans overwhelming selected only one option, something like 99.8% of the time. As this topic shows by itself, that is clearly not the case. Therefore, we can say with statistical certainty that the Alien has exceptional and possibly undeceivable levels of prediction. This would dictate, AT LEAST, that not only does the Alien have the ability to know what a human would choose BEFORE disclosing the game to the human, but they can also predict HOW describing the rules of the game to the human participant would CHANGE their choice and factor that into the prediction. Since we KNOW some humans would have picked both option A and B, then we can assume the players who picked option A had similar reasoning to do so ("It's simple game theory") and then lost the game because of that reasoning. The only way you can pick option A and and still win the game is if the alien's predictions are flawed in only your case. We have no reason to believe that is even possible. If you are the type of person to reach the conclusion that picking both is a viable option, then you are the type of person who will never get the million dollars. That's what the Alien has explained to you. He told you how to get the millions dollars. He gave you the illusion of free will. In reality, the "paradox" is simply a filter for people unwilling to accept the rules of the game because the rules were written in a way to imply you had free will to begin with. It reminds me of the psychology study of children where they are given a marshmallow, then told that if they wait 5 minutes without eating the marshmallow they'll get five more marshmallows. Then most the children eat the marshmallow immediately. You are told the rules of the game and how to win it. In order to do so you have to do the less greedy choice. Yet people still pick the greedy choice. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 10:10:04 AM #99 | Accolon posted...
I feel like deciding randomly through something like a coin flip would be smart.The point isn't to beat his prediction lol. The point is to get free money. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 10:06:38 AM #97 | I wonder if people would change their choice if the alien said "I know with certainty which box you will choose" instead of calling it a "prediction".
--- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 10:03:46 AM #96 | IceCreamOnStero posted...
It isn't demonstrably real, and nothing in the scenario suggests that it isThe alien's perfect predictions indicate either it or knowable determinism is real. If you want to choose to not believe the alien then that's fine, but if he's telling the truth then there is, with almost statistical certainty, some type of methodology that at the very least that mimics one of those two possibilities. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | BRAINTEASER: Do you take boxes A and B, or only box B? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 2:36:42 AM #86 | Philip027 posted...
What I do has absolutely no bearing on whether or not I get a million dollars (literally; I have no choice but to take box B which is the only one that might have $1m) because that's entirely up to the being's prediction which I have no knowledge or control over, so I might as well take both boxes and at least guarantee myself $1k. If it ends up being $1.001m instead, cool.The paradox is that if you approach the problem like this and the alien has omniscience or pseudo-omniscience of some sort, then you've failed the problem. There is one axiom--The alien is telling the truth. If he's not, then anything ia possible with either choice, so it's not worth applying logic to. The alien represents something that is fundamentally unknowable, but if it operates as it's described, then rationale can be applied to it's dilemma. Here is the problem: You are approaching the problem as if it's a traditional space-time issue--3 dimensions of space, 1 dimension of time, 1 direction for causality (Events in the future cannot affect events in the present or past). This does not have to be the case, however. The alien is potentially a creature beyond our comprehension, and thus you might be able to make choices in YOUR future that can affect changes in the ALIEN'S past, i.e. the results of your choice may be observable by the alien in the past making the prediction. This is not to say this is the answer, rather, it is proof that the alien's prediction does not need to obey typical expectations we would have when trying this same riddle with, say, an actual person in real life. Beyond the extra-dimensional shenanigans, however, your capacity to accept that your choices CAN be predicted is fundamental as to whether you choose the box or not. If you accept that your choices are deterministic AND entirely knowable, and the nature of the universe is entirely deterministic and knowable, then you would need to select box b in order to benefit from this deterministic filter. If your choices are determinstic, then you MUST select box b in order to get the million dollars. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The possible outcomes are as follows: The Universe is Deterministic + You believe the universe is deterministic = You select Box B and win one million. The Universe is Not Deterministic + You believe it is = You select Box B. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the aliens predictions actually are. Current data shows you have a 99.9% chance of winning 1 million dollars. The Universe is Deterministic + You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes and win one thousand. The Universe is Not Deterministic ,+ You don't believe it is = You pick both boxes. You get one thousand. Whether you win one million is up to how accurate the alien's predictions are. Current data shows you have a .1% chance of winning the million. The only time it's logical to choose both boxes is if you assume the alien is lying about some, but not all, of the info he's given you up to this point which is... A conclusion you could reach, I guess. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | I think I'm just gonna stick with my tomboy look |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/03/23 1:56:14 AM #54 | [LFAQs-redacted-quote]
HairyQueen is another obvious one. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Genuine question: Why do people argue about ''two genders'' and not two sexes? |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/02/23 9:07:05 PM #6 | boxoto posted...
they want to muddy the waters, since by acknowledging that sex and gender aren't the exact same thing, they allow for a line of reasoning that validates trans people.It's simply this. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Mike Pence is coming out swinging for Trump. |
| Pogo_Marimo 08/02/23 10:34:58 AM #11 | My brother in christ, you were his lap dog for 4 years. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | People who have incest, are they just mentally ill? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/31/23 6:09:57 PM #31 | A lot of people itt don't seem to understand what "mental illness" is. Incest is a social more that has some mild biological incentives. You do not need to be mentally ill to engage in incest, and social concerns about incest are largely dependent on upbringing and cultural perceptions. People are not mentally ill because they don't adhere to social norms. That's literally the argument that was used regarding homosexuality fir decades. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | My wife is mad at me constantly |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/30/23 6:45:17 PM #11 | I used to be a piece of shit. Spiked up blonde hair. Little bitty jeans. Chicken spaghetti at Chickalini's. People can change. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | My wife is mad at me constantly |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/30/23 4:36:41 PM #5 | Is it the sloppy steaks? --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | So, Runescape still exists and they added a Necromancy skill... |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/29/23 4:58:22 PM #9 | Ratchetrockon posted... Ohhh it for runescape 3. FiguresSailing is about to be added to OSRS --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | So, Runescape still exists and they added a Necromancy skill... |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/29/23 4:07:05 PM #5 | OSRS is, like, the third largest MMO currently lol. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Breaking: Senate passes National Defense Authorization/UAP Disclosure Act |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/28/23 10:14:56 AM #19 | It's definitely a "worthwhile" endeavor to push through this Act even if there's only a very slim chance of aliens existing. Rooting out reticent agencies is in itself useful for government oversight. However, after all this hubbub, this legislation does make it a lot funnier if it turns out that Grusch is just a delusional conman. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | What's your favourite anime film? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/25/23 9:18:09 PM #12 | Howl's Moving Castle probably. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | My work place is bleeding people, four people gone in a week. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/25/23 8:36:46 PM #15 | If businesses bleed people And people bleed blood Then what does blood bleed? --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | That might be the funniest Chainsaw Man joke, spoilers |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/25/23 4:21:45 PM #12 | It's not funnier than Family Burger but it was still pretty funny. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | ESRB Proposes Using Facial Recognition To Verify Your Age |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/25/23 2:26:55 PM #2 | When the solution is worse than the problem. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | I may be stupid but i dont know what grooming actually is... |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/25/23 2:25:35 PM #6 | Yeah, I could tell from here. *Pinches nose and waves hand in front of face* --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | I hate how wrestlers come to the show late. (as a part of the story) |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/24/23 8:55:07 PM #5 | https://youtu.be/4Q08st0s2Uc --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Quistis from FF8 is severely underrated |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/24/23 12:41:18 PM #19 | TMOG posted... She's also the only party member who's legal --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Have you ever performed a sex act in a public place? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/24/23 11:14:54 AM #57 | Slayer_22 posted... That can't be sanitary.a-c-a-b is a literal crackhead so I don't think he minds. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | That time on Friends where Ross tried fucking his cousin. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/23/23 10:34:08 PM #12 | Let me make this perfectly clear: I wouldn't care if prime Denise Richards was my own mother, I'd still hit that. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Someone just tried to open my front door in the middle of the night |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/21/23 2:30:06 PM #29 | Sorry! --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | What if Russia had given iraq cluster bombs to use against the USA? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/20/23 11:45:21 PM #2 | No, and it wouldn't have mattered because the U.S. basically 100-0'd Iraq's conventional army in both conflicts. Every cluster munition in the world wouldn't have changed that. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Quick question about Halls of Torment, please. *Spoilers?* |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/20/23 9:13:01 PM #7 | Bad_Mojo posted... Next question - How do I stop playing?Worst case scenario, if you reach around the back of your computer there should be a particularly thick cable leading out the back. Give it a stiff tug and you'll be back in business. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | What is car you loved in the past but could never get. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/20/23 7:44:32 PM #5 | All of them 'cause I ain't spending the money. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Owning a house is expensive as fuck. Renters have it lucky. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/19/23 10:22:53 AM #94 | Lol people still don't know that Idiotmachine is a troll. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggle. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/18/23 3:33:37 AM #16 | Yeah pretty much. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | The ''Island Boys" were kissing and making out with each other. |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/17/23 7:01:53 PM #5 | That's hot. That's a hot way to live. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | What happened to Russia sending in there elite troops? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/17/23 11:27:18 AM #4 | They sent them a while ago. They're mostly dead. As far as I know the only elite units with notable effectiveness still are the 1st Guards Tank Brigade, a couple Naval Infantry brigades, and the Spetznaz. All have been depleted to some degree. Other units, like their Airborne Infantry and Motor Arctic Warfare brigades have been mostly destroyed. I should also say that the Russian army has always been a largely conscript army and that is what set the mostly volunteer elite units apart (Aside from higher standards of fitness and readiness). Now these units are being backfilled with conscripts to bring them back to fighting strength. That doesn't mean NONE of their experience and knowledge is retained, but they are noticeably less formidable and motivated now than the were at the start of the war. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Tank controls are great |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/17/23 9:53:12 AM #9 | [LFAQs-redacted-quote] That doesn't mean the reference point (Your characters location) doesn't change during camera transitions dude. This is a literal geometric fact. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Tank controls are great |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/17/23 9:46:48 AM #4 | They, uh... don't give the player a consistent reference point. As in, objectively speaking for most games. The reference point change in its position and facing angle every camera transition. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | Would you play a Smash game of god pantheons? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/16/23 2:57:57 AM #3 | No and no one would because it wouldn't be as good as Smash Bros Ultimate and people don't actually care about a "pantheon" theme all that much. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | how many glizzies can you gobble |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/15/23 6:11:45 PM #7 | I'm certain I could do 4-7 but I could probably do 8+ --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
| Topic | The loony toons show basically mada lola bunny adult babs? |
| Pogo_Marimo 07/15/23 1:39:26 AM #8 | Good show. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. |
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