Lurker > Peace___Frog

I am sick and tired of people saying that lopen does not make sense.

I'm not voting or anything because i am out and about and want to reread things before committing.
But Ben is almost certainly scum, and i don't know why he lied about something so silly.

Yes, Ben is lying.

Lopen posted...

Although I kinda would prefer the bus driver to claim before mass. Not actions just the identity

Suspicious.

PunishedBen posted...

I just got out of escape room and i have to drive home which is over an hour away. HB is saying he guilty scanned me, which means he is scum and this is MYLO unless I got pot of Greeded or he is gambiting.

##Vote: HB

I'm Junks, Town Watcher.

I watched Han both nights, and no one visited Han night 1. Then last night i got Bus Driven i assume to watch Kirby. No one visited Kirby

This is horrible timing but I'll be home eventually, PLEASE don't rush vote me. Game will be over

Convenient.

I meant placing votes, not traps. But also that sure.

I agree that we need to be careful placing traps.
I'm hosting a friend from out of town so I'm a little out of action for right now.
But i am fine with a mass.
Poppy didn't die, and neither did hb. Ok.

Btw bct, do better. You're still relying on omgus and i hoped for better.

Won't have much more time before day ends. I skimmed poppy's posts since he returned and am content to leave my vote on him. Should o have been more aggressive and demanded that he claim?

I ask everyone active in this topic to read my reviews of red and corrik from d1, and to conclude that poppy is a worthwhile lynch.
Thank you. Good night.

I look forward to laughing with Corrik about it at the end of the game if he did poison Poppy and we lynch him today anyway.

I do not want us to not lynch Poppy because we think it's possible for a dead player, who can neither confirm or deny, to have delay-killed someone that we agree is scum.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

##Unvote Kirby

##Vote Sbell

the push on BCT is gross given he's bleeding town all over the thread, the IGCD vote was opportunistic, same with the vote on han coming at the time when lopen was tunneling him felt the same way

none of these votes give me the feeling of coming from a town mindset and when you stack them all together it just looks like scum pushing likely mis-elims

T3 #12, per Chang's letter #2

Poppy followed BCT onto the Sbell lynch, accusing Sbell of being opportunistic. He granted BCT a ton of grace here, but has not said anything in the time since. So we don't know if he's reevaluated anything.

BCT has been anything but bleeding town on Day 2. He has not tried to figure the game out at all, every single one of his accusations is "how dare you say I'm scum, everyone who's anyone says I'm town". To use Poppy's own words... None of BCT's votes give me the feeling of coming from a town mindset, and when you stack them all together it just looks like scum pushing mis-elims. And Poppy played hard defense for BCT yesterday, without a squeak about him today. Dislike.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

What if Poppy got poisoned by Corrik and he's Scum and he's staying quiet to avoid giving any extra info?

Would a player be notified if they are poisoned?

Ugh I really wish I could edit that. The formatting did not come out right at all.

Lets boil the letters down to simple comments.

Peaf Letter 1:
After my review, I felt that changs vote on Sbell was the tipping point and the most important vote, as a result. I wanted to be clear that it was not the vote itself that I was suspicious of, because I voted for the same person not long after. My suspicions came from a place of thinking back to the game where, I think it was Scare as scum, managed a mislynch on D1 from some devious pushing and pulling. I recall that most players didnt come to appreciate this until after the game ended. So I wanted chang, in his own words, to speak to his vote, especially because he did not provide specific reasons in the same post that he voted for Sbell in. He also had not, to this point, at all acknowledged that prior to his vote, he was the sole vote leader. I didnt go into all of this at the time of the letter because I wanted Chang to reply without influence of my full impressions.

Chang Letter 1:
Chang asserts that he bought into Hans argument that Sbell was deliberately being obtuse in order to get Han lynched, particularly with a goal to keep himself above it by being able to blame Lopen or Sultan if Han flipped as town. Given Sbells flip, Chang concludes that Sbell was reaction-baiting in order to get reads on players, or to get other players to start to see his reads in the same way that he did. Chang also thinks that BCT is likely town from the Day 1 actions.

Stepping outside of the specific summary of letter 1, and piecing things together with this statement on BCT, I see Changs thought process as:
1. BCT is town, as is Han
2. SBell and Sultan are pushing BCT
3. Therefore, SBell and Sultan are likely scum. SBell has been more scummy (see: Han interactions), so he should be voted.
Back to the letters.

Peaf Letter 2:
Unsatisfied with Changs reply, I continued to prod. This time, I raised the sultan pressure on BCT. I wont dwell too much on my first paragraph because it has since we refuted my understanding of that part of the timeline already, and we dont need to litigate that again. My second paragraph was entirely focused on the timeline of early Topic 2, specifically with the accusation that he voted out of self-preservation and is trying to hide it.

Chang Letter 2:
The first paragraph is correcting my understanding of the timeline of pressure on BCT, and frankly Im pretty content with how he pushed back on me here. He called out specific posts from SBell and Poppy.
The second paragraph is him explaining his thought processes on his own Day 1 lynch train, something that I dont think we really had before this. He claims that he no longer felt that he was at a strong risk of dying at the time that he voted for Sbell, because Han was no longer pushing for Changs lynch. So while the self-preservation idea was in his head, it was not the driving force behind him voting for Sbell instead of someone else. He voted for Sbell because he thought Sbell was scum, and that is that.

Peaf Letter 3:
I lay off the timeline bit now that I see the error of my ways. I admit that the fact that BCT really put this whole thing into motion is baffling to me. I thank Chang for his contributions, because he did honestly help me a lot in understanding the last 200ish posts of Day 1.
Finally, I ask Chang about Han insights, because in his story the inputs from Han are a key part of why he goes on offense.

Editors note rereading the letters again makes Poppy look even worse for me, and Im even more comfortable with my current vote. Poppy was suspecting BCT, and then followed him on a lynch on Sbell? Well return to this.

Chang Letter 3:
Chang replies to my Han question by saying that he is distracted town. This is by far the longest of the letters, owed to the direct quotes from Han, but they are important. Chang also discusses the possible scenarios with the BCT trap event:
1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the results.
Editors note having this spelled out in this fashion made it clearer to me than when Han said it. Again, I appreciate Changs assistance in helping me figure out the game.
Furthermore, with respect to Hans possibilities:
1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
Chang concludes that #2 would be extremely silly and wasteful because it would erase all plausible deniability if a day cop exists and scanned him. At that point, the argument would have to be that Han, if scum, is Godfather who did this ploy to in order to scan guilty. The simplest argument is that Han is town.

Peaf Not-Letter, End:
I again thank Chang for the correspondence.

I was too rude to sign this final letter, or to address it properly. I will take etiquette courses in the immediate future to remedy this slight against the cherished Changmas.

I summarized the letters to my best ability here, but have them in their full contents (with minor liberties taken in their formatting, for convenient consideration, but with no words changed beyond spelling corrections). If you want to save yourself the hassle of finding them, just ask.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I would like to point out this about Chang:

When he showed up closer to deadline yesterday, he made a good argument on SBell for someone who had been absent for awhile.

Additionally, I told him he has an opportunity to get on my good side, and he took it by directly attacking one of the people attacking me.

Chang also immediately buttered up to red the moment red said he looked scummy. I think he has been good at that this game.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Maybe you saw his planned fakeclaim on the Scumboard earlier... :P

Peaf, to bounce off what you're saying about Corrik hinting, I feel like you dipped into that a little too much like it pointed at me - if any Scum thought that was Corrik hinting power, then they might kill, regardless of who he may have hinted at targeting. I agree with Lopen's assessment though - Corrik understands community meta and knows I am a high-profile kill target who dies within the first three nights, and that even if I don't, I put enough into the game that you have a wealth of data on me.

Trust me, I'd love to know who is scum. I can't get over the feeling of paranoia that you're pulling a slow one on me, which is why I dipped into the Corrik thing too much with you.

I want to say that there's massive town equity for Han since red has died. Would Han agree to kill a player he has zero respect for? Very unlikely! But that player was basically confirmed town, so I conclude that it's not truly indicative of Han's alignment.

Lol OK

PunishedBen posted...

Well that's not true, but otherwise sure.

You don't think I've lurked games since simple?

My first active game, correct. I've lurked many others before and after simple.

And even without my admittedly very limited knowledge of other games, seeing as how i had no stake in them, we can use context clues.

Lopen said corrik isn't a leader early on.
In Simple, he was.
Therefore, i conclude that simple was an anomaly.

Lopen posted...

But yeah. Han being town just makes a lot of sense. I think Corrik being the added kill fits that. Red being n1 kill is obvious as he town confirmed himself and was motivated. But the second kill not being Han or myself and instead Corrik implies we're both town imo as we both were active and mostly thought as town. That's not to say Corrik is not a good early kill target, but he doesn't lead towns till later generally.

For your last sentence I'll suggest that if scum is someone who was in Simple Mafia, then they would disagree. That game was an anomaly, sure, but I think that Ben, Kirby, and BCT could fit that bill.

SM Playerlist:

1. IGCD - not playing
2. Ulti - not playing
3. ctes
4. Isquen/Plum - not playing, was scum
5. Sultan
6. Kirby
7. Ben - was scum
8. SBell - dead
9. Peaf
10. Corrik - himself
11. BCT - host

I don't think ctes, Sultan, or myself would shoot Corrik. So we're left with Ben, Kirby, and BCT there.

Unless we have another night vig who killed corrik, in which case they should have fessed up by now.

Hm. Fair.

Lopen posted...

I do not agree with it at all. Corrik is smart (smart player clearly saves motion detector for #3 as it is bad without upgrade-- poison upgrade is marginal) and Corrik likes to Yolo. Corrik also said last game he doesn't leave hints. (I correctly said he Roshan hunted Poppy, but he vehemently denied his vote was a hint)

So you believe that Corrik was banking on a power role other than himself *ahem HB* taking action against Han last night?

I've got a pretty busy day today so will be far less active than I have been until now.

I still think Kirby is town, and have said my piece regarding BCT. I don't like HB's plays at all but am content to give him one night.

Lopen posted...

Solid argument for lynching Ctes is vanilla town doesn't hold off on claiming vanilla town that hard when they're in contention for lynch

That was scum being scared of claiming

Solid argument for lynch Ctes is Sbell doesn't gain traction out of nowhere if scum is ok with the lynch

Solid argument for Ctes is he keeps making excuses for inactivity

But you're just going to call this crackpot lol. It's better than any case you've made this game though.

None of this is crackpot. I dig it. If ctes flips scum, who are your top suspects tomorrow?

Lopen, read my post with the Han hint. I believe there is less than a 10% chance that Corrik used poison last night.

ZELDa

Kirby321 posted...

It's not worth much now, but if I were there at the end of the day, I would've fought for Chang to get lynched if Ben wasn't viable. But if it really came down to Sbell and Ctes, I would've voted Ctes since I thought Sbell was town. Though I recall leaning town on Ctes at the time, too, but not nearly as strongly as with Sbell.

Yeah, I didn't outright say it but my point there was basically that the people without votes on the two train leaders have qualities about them such that I think not picking a side is not indicative of alignment. A ctes lynch today gives us zero information on the three of you.

As of T1 #183, Corrik wanted claims from chang, Kirby, or Poppy. Speaking of myself here, but I'm good with Kirby and am fine backing off chang for now. So that leaves Poppy for me, which conveniently lines up with Red.

I felt really good about Poppy on Day1, owing almost entirely to his Corrik interactions. To be frank - if Corrik were still alive today and Poppy had even a tenth of the fire under his ass that he had on Day 1, I probably could have been swayed to vote for Corrik. Because fact of the matter is, Corrik was playing differently than we've seen him recently.

T2 #205 - Corrik said "there will be information on Han after night 1". Let's review Corrik's abilities.

You have three abilities, but the third power you use gets upgraded.
1. Once during a night you can target and poison another Duelist. They will suffer a normal death the following night. If you use this power when upgraded, you will simply kill another Duelist on the same night instead.
2. Once during a night you can target and block another targeted Duelist. They can however still perform any other actions. If you use this power when upgraded, you will roleblock all of the targeted Duelist's actions instead.
3. Once during a night you can target a Duelist and detect motion around them. You will see if someone moved to them and/or they moved. If you use this power when upgraded, you will also get the names of all the Duelists linked to those moves.

I originally agreed with Lopen that Corrik was likely to use the poison on Night 1. HOWEVER!
With about 4.5 hours remaining in the day, Corrik heavily hinted that he would target Han with something that would give him information - the aforementioned T2 #205. I can definitely see scum Han picking up on this and taking note, as hes a smart guy who loves details like this.

With corriks hint, I doubt he blocked Han (power #2). I also doubt he would poison Han since it sounded like he planned to get information (power #1). I will assert that on N1, Corrik targeted Han with his motion detector. Presuming that scum does not have any more bonus kills and there are no other night-vigs than Corrik, I'm going to assume that we will only see one death N2. Per Lopen's math earlier, this doesn't really change the state of the game on Day 3 if we do not lynch scum today.

It probably doesnt help corrik that I quoted that post and attacked it for the wrong reason. Missed the forest for the trees, there, Peaf. Way to bring more attention to the hint.

And corriks last post was T2 #237, quoting Lopens agreement that Kirby and Han both as scum is unlikely. He was not around at all at the end of the day, and announced that he was leaving his vote on chang.

Back to Poppy - these interactions all take on a new light, with the night flips.
T2 Page 1:

PoppyTheNinja posted...

okay

do you really believe i don't have opinions and have not tried to solve people, then?

Corrik7 posted...

Is that rhetorical or do you want my answer to this?

You don't seem assertive. You don't seem confident except to tell us you are confident as town. You don't seem to have quick reads, that you got often from one post.

I'd say you fail the exact town play you say you encompass, while also failing to acknowledge that as scum you would try to emulate such town play anyways because of course you aren't a newbie.

You do seem to be edgy to be called out. I'll venture to say at some point you will get abrasive too. Also likely dismissive.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

confident townreads on lopen, bct, ultan
lean town on ben and hb

kirby and sbell scummish

most other people shades of null or read withheld for strategic easons

PoppyTheNinja posted...

further, i wonder - was me playing different from the previous game actually a thought in your head before red mentioned it? or are you just copying his idea?

Leafeon13N posted...

This is funny to me because i dont think you've been any of these things.

I've stayed up way too late but I completed my review of red and corrik.
TL;DR - ##Vote: Poppy
Because there's some good overlap there between the two of red and corrik.

Before getting into them, I want to humor PastCorrik and bring up a flavor oddity.

I looked up the banned cards thing (rule 4b) and did a lil Google. Turns out theres a difference between cards banned in the anime, and cards banned in real life, with one card of overlap. Pot of Greed is banned in real life but not in the anime, and since we can buy Pot of Greed, Im tempted to believe right now that the flavor split is for decks in the anime that use cards banned in the anime vs those who don't. I dont see any simple lists for what cards fit this criteria, other than an 82 minute Youtube video with under 100 views from 2018. This video links to the YGOPRO forum with a post from 7 years ago that doesnt seem to properly load on my machine.

In short - I plan to use my standard approach of "flavor is a funny name that I will put no stock into" moving forward.

Day 1 basically started with ctes and sbell getting a few quick votes, then it dying down and coming back to them full circle. It's almost poetic.

Red and Corrik both chastised Poppy for talking a big game but nothing as how he describes himself. Poppy got upset and defensive from corrik accusing him of not having opinions and not trying to solve people, because Poppy thinks he's been assertive.

90 minutes before deadline, and red was humoring chang or ctes for the lynch. What's curious here is that 11 posts later, chang called red town. Perhaps he was trying to get on red's good side and steer him to his other suspect?

Red also interacted with BCT, namely in that he says BCT learned the opposite of the lesson that he should have - "I'm going to learn my lesson and shut up until Day 2".
Not related to red, but BCT also says that "if you can't articulate why you suspect somebody, you're scum." With how much trouble he's had doing anything other than counter-accusing people who tell him he's looking scummy, my patience here is wearing thin. BCT, please direct your attention to post 88 of this topic (here: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80198310/968721044) and review my comments there.

Poppy and BCT come out of their talks with red looking worse. Which is funny because as I'll get to shortly, Corrik (T2 #190) says that Poppy and BCT can't both be scum.

The thing with Poppy is that it really boiled down to
Red: You're acting different
Poppy: Nuh-uh
Red: Yuh-huh
Poppy: Well yeah because I was third party last game
Red: Third party, on day 1, has no incentive to do anything other than play as town

Sbell was on Poppy's side here, for the record.

Corrik thesis coming next.

PunishedBen posted...

I never pushed Ctes, and had little definitive read on him at EoD, and I only had to swap to him because I thought Sbell was much more likely town and wanted to save Sbell who started getting votes in the last 10 minutes . I wanted to lynch Chang yesterday. And a bit before this you said my vote for Chang here is unexplained and out of nowhere? You're either completely missing my posts or intentionally trying to slander me, and I'm starting to think it's the latter.

Hey Ben, for the record, I found what post I was thinking of. It was this.

Hbthebattle posted...

cause i brought up ctes before red did, he acts upon my will :^)

Topic 2, #400. I confused you with hb and really scrambled my head around.

I'm now of the opinion that a ctes lynch doesn't tell us much about ben's alignment either way. Gonna need you to walk me through that one, Han.

PunishedBen posted...

I never pushed Ctes, and had little definitive read on him at EoD, and I only had to swap to him because I thought Sbell was much more likely town and wanted to save Sbell who started getting votes in the last 10 minutes . I wanted to lynch Chang yesterday.

I'm rereading, and you're absolutely right. Let me stop playing League and actually read what's going on here.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

"Moving onto a non-vanilla" I think doesn't apply because he claimed after their votes.

Fair. Why did I think ctes had claimed earlier?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

##unvote:BCT

Okay let go sultan time to play the game harder

[7] SBell - (IGCD), (Red), (Poppy), BCT, Poppy, Chang, Han, Peaf, Ctes, Hb
[5] ctes - (Han), (Lopen), (Peaf), Red, Lopen, (Hb), Ben, Sbell, Red

Okay looking at this Peaf and HB are Late Jumps from Ctes to Sbell.

Hb I'm inclined to believe for now.. iso peaf might be a good thing to do.

For the record, i voted immediately after han. If i weren't me, I'd count our votes similarly if you're going only off of timing.

I want to go down each scenario with you some more, Han.

People who didn't vote for either Sbell or ctes were Corrik, Kirby, Sultan, and Abacus.
Corrik is known town. Abacus has a "cop" scan for his innocence. I feel good about Kirby and Sultan. But in the absence of those impressions, my general idea would be that in a town/town competition at day-end, scum wouldn't care which townie goes (except for a general preference to hit power, sow confusion, and kill a better player).

If Ctes is town, Chang and Poppy (and BCT, in my book) look worse because moving onto a non-vanilla means a bigger likelihood of hitting power and causing chaos. So I agree with you there. Additionally, all three already look bad (BCT the worst of them all, but as previously discussed, is not a lynch for today). I don't follow your Ben or Lopen logics. I think HB actually looks worse here, too, if Ctes is town, for the concepts raised in my prior paragraph.

If Ctes is scum, I don't think Ben necessarily looks good. Sure, he was on Ctes (and wants to claim that he pushed Ctes before Red made it cool). But as Lopen said, that could have been a very early-day ploy for distancing, with zero intent to let things get as far as they did. But I would back off Ben for at least a day in that case (barring other circumstances).
HB could have been confused town as you and I were, or could have been a scummate with the last-second heroic save. No tell either way on HB, from the Ctes flip, based only on the day-end votes.

Finally, totally separate from Ctes - what to do with Abacus. Given that we've had a jack flip, AND we know pot of greed exists in the game, is it outlandish to think that scum have the ability to one-time anti-pot-of-greed? Perhaps this is more tinfoil-hat than Abacus being godfather, but I don't think it is. The only thing giving me pause is why the fuck they'd use it on Abacus.

All that said, I do agree with your lynch pool for today at this point in time.

ctesjbuvf posted...

You two are currently set on that Hb and I have to be scum/scum and absolutely can't be scum/scum. I'm in no way convinced lynching me would make anything clearer for you, it'd just be a waste of a lynch.
Also I'll hage to do my work tomorrow.

Doesn't Han think that you and HB can't both be scum?

Han - you think ctes lynch gives us the most info because it tells us if it was town/town or town/scum on D1. Correct?

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Lopen is starting to act like scum Lopen again, and he went from saying I was the one he was most convinced of being town to saying I'm scum. What did I even do? This turn makes no sense and he's cackling again.

HB is because of what Peaf said. The claim doesn't add up to an even greater extent than I had thought. It makes no sense to claim after just one scan when that scan is Abacus. I don't have anything more to add that wasn't already said.

That's my current analysis. Peaf and Han most town to me right now.

You... do of course realize that Lopen and I are in agreement with respect to HB, right? What about Lopen is crazy and scummy? You don't get to say anything about yourself in your answer.

Really wish i could ask him, but you're probably right

Oh right. We'd be at 4-4 in that scenario.

Hmm hmm hmm

He claims roleblocked, then I do what I'm doing today and evaluating the game from an angle where I only know my alignment and that of dead people (presumably, +2 tomorrow).
He claims scum scan, we see what that other person says and evaluate from there (trusting HB until proven wrong).
He claims inno scan, then we evaluate from the remaining players for scum (trusting HB until proven wrong).
He claims scan on player who scum killed over night, presuming they kill someone other than him - HB should get voted out.

Han and Kirby - I agree that non-optimal play is a possibility! It's why I backed off and want to give him a night, and see where the chips land.

Scum keeps him alive and roleblocks him is the most likely possibility so we should prepare for it.

Kirby321 posted...

And I really don't think scanning Abacus was that bad of a play. Do we, as a collective town, gain much from that info? Not really, but I understand the logic behind it.

Imagine if Red got scanned for whatever reason in Dota 2 Mafia. Easy victory! He wouldn't have been able to coast by without doing anything.

I get the logic behind scanning a low-activity/inactive slot because otherwise those people tend to avoid being a topic of discussion at all like how Poppy is only being intermittently brought up despite being ominously silent.

I think this is all very reasonable. The logic makes sense. Sharing the information in this manner does not. See #3 above.
Respectfully,
Peaf

Edit in bold below:

So if we talk through the sequence of events:

1. You scan an inactive player as TOWN
2. Option 1 is to keep this information to yourself. This does not expose you as cop. Option 2 is to share this information, but you should be aware that with a doctor dead, you have no one to protect you through to tomorrow.
3. If you go with Option 1, and you see other players putting pressure on the player that you scanned, you get frustrated. But you don't know that that Player is a POWER role, only that they are town. They could be a vanilla. As cop, it wouldn't make sense to out yourself just to save a vanilla who has contributed effectively nothing, and has not proven their worth to you in any way. Why would you suicide for that player?
4. If you go with Option 2, then you must surely know that you are dying tonight and you should be doing everything in your power to make your remaining time worthwhile, and solving the game. So far all you've really done today is... weakly accuse two players who are suspicious of someone who replaced an inactive player, and has basically been inactive themselves.

PunishedBen posted...

What changed your stance completely on this between the end of day 1 and now?

Things have happened in the past 23 hours?

Hbthebattle posted...

Why was scanning Abacus a low value play? Inactive players by their nature are hard to read. Its absolutely valuable for town to close that rabbit hole one way or another.

It tells you basically nothing about anyone else. As I said in topic 3, post 384 (bolding the parts that presume you are town):

Even if you assume that han or lopen will die because there's no doc, at best you scanned an inactive player guilty and then have nothing else to go off of for d3 onwards, and you're dead from it (assuming night kill on n2). At worst (long-term strategically, for town) he scans clean, and you give ammo to someone to skate by for the rest of the game and contribute nothing. It's also super low stakes for scum for reasons already presented, but also because (assuming hb scum and abacus town) you've given effectively zero information to town. A player who hasn't interacted with anyone much is town? Not much to learn from that!

I think that the best play is to presume hb's innocence FOR NOW and give him a night. He'll probably be (or claim to be) roleblocked but so be it.

Expect me back on your case tomorrow, hb.

So if we talk through the sequence of events:

1. You scan an inactive player as TOWN
2. Option 1 is to keep this information to yourself. This does not expose you as cop. Option 2 is to share this information, but you should be aware that with a doctor dead, you have no one to protect you through to tomorrow.
3. If you go with Option 1, and you see other players putting pressure on the player that you scanned, you get frustrated. But you don't know that that Player is a POWER role, only that they are town. They could be a vanilla. As cop, it wouldn't make sense to out yourself just to save a vanilla.
4. If you go with Option 2, then you must surely know that you are dying tonight and you should be doing everything in your power to make your remaining time worthwhile, and solving the game. So far all you've really done today is... weakly accuse two players who are suspicious of someone who replaced an inactive player, and has basically been inactive themselves.

PunishedBen posted...

Peaf, what did Kirby say in regards to me that you considered him reading your mind?

Basically this:
Kirby321 posted...

Then Ben makes the most sense to lynch, yeah? We get a lot of info out of it.

You could argue lynching Ctes would give us the most, but I'm feeling much worse about Ben. Ctes I'm neutral-ish on.

Which admittedly isn't that much. Why did I think Kirby said more than that, at the time? Now that I'm going through and doing the CTRL+F, I'm having trouble finding anything within the past few hours from Kirby RE: Ben that is what I have in my notes. Hmmm.

The thing with that, Kirby, is that:

1. Lopen and Ben aren't the only ones who have said that about Abacus
2. He himself thought Abacus was scummy, as evidenced by including him on a scum list and then scanning him
3. Scanning Abacus, as town, is a very low-value play. Claiming to scan Abacus, as scum, gives town basically no more information than they already had (and scum knows who is not scum).

Lopen's thought process here is not faulty.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Thing is, my Townread on Hb is based on rereading his Day 1, and nothing about today.

I'm not referring to your town read at all in my evaluation.

changmas posted...

My affectionate friend,
Thanks for your kind note. On the nature of our esteemed guest Han, I believe that he has found himself somewhat distracted by the musings of the gentleman Lopen and by SBell prior to his lynch in the town square. Beyond that, I am feeling quite certain that he is aligned with town. I think this letter of his sounds fairly plausible:

I see three possible scenarios for what transpired with BCT, most of which have been proposed at various times by multiple individuals.

1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the resutls.

Han himself spent at least 50 gold on the trap as well, and he could be either of these simplified scenarios:

1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
And while Han could be devious no doubt, I think that first scenario sounds more realistic to me. OH WAIT - it would actually be incredibly, incredibly stupid of Scum Han to buy and set the trap because it would erase ALL plausible deniability if a day cop did exist and did scan him. He would have to prove that it's the other trap (the 100 gold one) by locking someone's vote on him. Because if he scanned guilty with his trap intact, he couldn't possibly have been Pot of Greeded, and therefore it would be a correct scan.

So then you're into arguing that Scum Han has to be godfather and that's just way less likely than him being town. So yeah, he's gotta be town or godfather to buy and set that trap.

Ahem, let me return to the formal style of my letter. I hope that your seeing the wheels turn in my thought process will make up for the callous and casual style with which I have written above. I trust you will find this information as eye-opening and fascinating as I did.

Sincerely yours,
Changmas

I didn't reply straight away because wrapping my head around the item play has not been conducive to me getting actual work done today.
But fuck, man. After i slowed down and read through your notes here, you explained this really well. Far better than han did. Thank you.

I'm feeling a lot better about chang now. So that means that of the sbell lynch, i feel that the following players are likely town:

• Chang
• Han
• Peaf

That leaves bct, poppy, ctes, and hb. I'm not interested in pushing bct's buttons at all any more, but I agree with sultan (and sbell!) that bct should definitely not be taken as confirmed town.
I've laid my case on hb and have backed off only because he is claimed power and i suspect that he and ctes will be resolved by night actions of some sort tomorrow.
That leaves us with poppy, who i felt extremely good about on day 1 but is a big question mark for me today.

What happened, poppy? Without corrik to bounce off of, you're a little bit lost?

Reposting from t3 because I'm a little bit slow on this fine Friday

changmas posted...

My affectionate friend,
Thanks for your kind note. On the nature of our esteemed guest Han, I believe that he has found himself somewhat distracted by the musings of the gentleman Lopen and by SBell prior to his lynch in the town square. Beyond that, I am feeling quite certain that he is aligned with town. I think this letter of his sounds fairly plausible:

I see three possible scenarios for what transpired with BCT, most of which have been proposed at various times by multiple individuals.

1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the resutls.

Han himself spent at least 50 gold on the trap as well, and he could be either of these simplified scenarios:

1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
And while Han could be devious no doubt, I think that first scenario sounds more realistic to me. OH WAIT - it would actually be incredibly, incredibly stupid of Scum Han to buy and set the trap because it would erase ALL plausible deniability if a day cop did exist and did scan him. He would have to prove that it's the other trap (the 100 gold one) by locking someone's vote on him. Because if he scanned guilty with his trap intact, he couldn't possibly have been Pot of Greeded, and therefore it would be a correct scan.

So then you're into arguing that Scum Han has to be godfather and that's just way less likely than him being town. So yeah, he's gotta be town or godfather to buy and set that trap.

Ahem, let me return to the formal style of my letter. I hope that your seeing the wheels turn in my thought process will make up for the callous and casual style with which I have written above. I trust you will find this information as eye-opening and fascinating as I did.

Sincerely yours,
Changmas

I didn't reply straight away because wrapping my head around the item play has not been conducive to me getting actual work done today.
But fuck, man. After i slowed down and read through your notes here, you explained this really well. Far better than han did. Thank you.

I'm feeling a lot better about chang now. So that means that of the sbell lynch, i feel that the following players are likely town:

• Chang
• Han
• Peaf

That leaves bct, poppy, ctes, and hb. I'm not interested in pushing bct's buttons at all any more, but I agree with sultan (and sbell!) that bct should definitely not be taken as confirmed town.
I've laid my case on hb and have backed off only because he is claimed power and i suspect that he and ctes will be resolved by night actions of some sort tomorrow.
That leaves us with poppy, who i felt extremely good about on day 1 but is a big question mark for me today.

What happened, poppy? Without corrik to bounce off of, you're a little bit lost?

Lopen posted...

I do honestly think you were doing it prepared to jump to someone else. You were practically begging Han to make you vote Sbell, then did it anyway when he didn't

My third or fourth tinfoil hat theory so far is that hb has been following han's guidance so hard, he is to be Scum trying to get on han's good side and butter him up (han town in this scenario). If they were both scum then they wouldn't need to be so blatant about it.

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1581004419587416065?t=HDUJq1x92B0u74OcMhsKUA&s=19

Jfc, this guy