Lurker > MZero

Pokemon Scarlet

Level 6: Eagles (-1.5)

Bonus: Bears

Almost guaranteed to be wrong leaderboard:

Level 10
KommunistKoala******

Level 8
Crescent-Moon***
MysteriousStan****
pronouncemyname***
Suprak the Stud**

Level 7
DpOblivion**
fortybelowsummer****
foxhead84***
HBJDubs***
Leonhart4*****
MMXcalibur*******
Reg*****
Sir Chris****
SwiftyDC******
terpaholic****
TheArkOfTurus****

Level 6
5tarscream*
Camden****
Cody11533******
KCF0107********
Mewtwo59******
MZero**
Paratroopa1****
StifledSilence****
Thorn*****
Whiskey_Nick*****
ZeroSignal620******

Level 5
davidponte****
HanOfTheNekos**
Runemistress****
Stripperiffic
th3l3fty***
theawesomestevr*
thekitchensink***

Level 4
Bartz****
Dancedreamer***
Eddv*
LiquidOshawott**
VengefulKaelee**
Xuxon****

Level 3
Wicklebee*
WiggumFan267

Level 2
Arti*****
Evil_REmade*
greengravy294*
hockeydude15*
MaxedOutRyu*
mccheyne*

Level 1
changmas*
guffguy89
Jukkie
KokoroAkechi*
wallmasterz**

dang it
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles
Las Vegas Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers

Axew

Looks like ESY got me again for the second time in three years! I received the Castlevania Advance Collection, Okami, and Anarcute!

I played SotN for the first time this year and absolutely loved it, so I'm really excited to dive into the GBA games! Okami is a game I've wanted to try for years as a Zelda fan so that's very exciting too! Finally, Anarcute looks like Katamari, which is one of my favorite series, so that should be fun!

Thank you so much ESY!

Smash

BlueCrystalTear posted...

These two facts are related. My splintered votes needed an explanation because they looked bad, ergo I was on defense. I felt like I spent too much of this game being on defense instead of offense. It was hard for me to scum hunt because I was too busy trying to look like town. I don't yet know how to handle both at once. I'm still rough with how I play.

Everyone takes their lumps in the beginning. I got mislynched all the time when I first started. Trying to look like town will get you in trouble because, well, that's what scum is doing. Once you get more experience and learn to play naturally you probably won't get suspected as much. It's important to remember that it's nothing personal when someone suspects you, it's just that suspecting people is the entire premise of the game. Easier said than done, of course. I'm sorry if you took anything I said in the game personally

BlueCrystalTear posted...

MZero, however, did not, and made the same mistake of tunneling me for "shitposting on page 1." This needs to stop. I am tired of this happening every game. This is one reason this game isn't good for my mental health: The fact that people don't believe me when I say "I was just shitposting" while everyone else does the same thing and nobody bats an eye. If you want to suspect me, give me more reasons than a stupid joke I made right when the game started. It was his lack of justification that made me think MZero was scum. Just like Sultan last game and SBell whenever that was.

Well, I actually tunneled you because you seemed overly defensive about it, and then you never gave me a reason to think you were town. Leaving your votes splintered on the Scare lynched looked bad. You didn't really explain how your reads evolved so they seemed fake. The whole thing about thinking you were modkilled. You ignored several questions posed to you. I could go on, but the point is I had a lot of reasons for pushing you by the end. I stand by my reasoning for thinking you were scum, but town is scummy sometimes.

Gift scheduled, so I won't be needing your help KCF but thanks for offering!

yeah but my reads were so bad lmao I don't think I suspected a single member of your team at any point

Based on your criteria, I'd recommend V. It's pretty narrative focused as far as DQ goes iirc and if you enjoyed DQM you'll probably enjoy V, and it is one of the more highly regarded entries.

Personally I like VIII and VI though

Cecil
Kain
Cait Sith

gg scum I sucked

Sultan was town MVP

Snubbull
Dachsbun

Christmas is not a holiday where I live, but we do get the 30th through the 4th off for New Year's

A few ground rules:
-Please say which level you are on when you post your pick. In most cases it will be obvious, but this makes it easier for me to record the picks.
-The deadline to make a pick is before the official kick-off time of the game in question. You cannot pick a game that has already started. Some levels may have different deadlines, so read carefully.
-The deadline to answer the bonus question is at the start of games on Sunday (1 PM ET).
-Please don't edit your picks. If you'd like to change, please do so in a clearly labeled new post.
-I get my spreads from an online site providing lines from several sources, both in Vegas and out. Although these sources may continue to change their lines throughout the week, the ones I post in the topic are frozen and final for our purposes.
-You may use bonus points to skip any level after it is guaranteed you cannot pass it (at the end of the week's games, typically). You may only skip the level before I have posted the next week's topic. The price for skipping is in proportion to the level you are skipping. Skipping level 1 would take 1 bonus point, level 2 will take 2, level 5 will take 5. So on and so forth.

Explanation of Levels:

Level 1: Pick a winner. Simply pick one team to win their game. If they win, you go on to level 2.

Level 2: Pick an Underdog to win. You must pick a team that is an underdog to win their game. Underdogs will always be the team listed second.

Level 3: Level 3: 2 Games with Spread. Using the spreads I provide, pick 2 games. You must get both correct to move on. Spreads work by giving (-) or getting (+) points. The team that is the favorite to win "gives" points to the underdog. If you choose the favorite to win, they must still win after "giving" those points to the underdog. If you choose the underdog, you would be correct if they win the game after "getting" those points. For example, if a game says "Giants (-2.5) vs. Cowboys," if you pick the Giants, they must actually win the game by at least three points; if you pick the Cowboys, you would win if they actually won the game or lost by two points or less.

Level 4: 2 Game differentials. Pick two games and specify them to have a score differential of either 10+ or 5-. Make sure to specify which you pick, if you pick a score to be 10+ and the score ends up 3 apart, you do not advance. You do not need to pick the winner, as long as the differential is correct, it does not matter which team wins.

Level 5: 2 Over/Unders: I will now provide over/unders for each game. This number relates to the final score. You must choose 2 of the games and decide whether the final score will be OVER the number I provided or UNDER the number I provided. You must get both of these correct to advance.

Level 6: Pleaser: Pick one team to win using the spread, but with the pleaser, you lose 6 points on the spread. In other words, add six points in whichever direction makes it harder to win. For example, a (-2.5) spread becomes (-8.5), a (+3.5) becomes a (-2.5) spread, etc.

Level 7: QB, RB, WR: Pick 1 player to throw a touchdown pass, 1 player to rush for a touchdown, and 1 player to catch a touchdown pass. They must all be from different teams, and must also combine for at least 4 touchdowns in their respective positions. Typically you will be picking a QB, RB, and WR, but you may pick players from other positions to fill those roles (i.e. a TE or RB to get a receiving touchdown). You must make it clear what role you are picking the players for if it is not the standard QB/RB/WR or QB/RB/TE. If the player gets a touchdown in a different way (i.e. your rusher getting a receiving touchdown), it does not count.

Level 8: 5 Game Teaser: This is the opposite of level 6. Instead of losing 6 points on each spread, you actually gain 6 points on each spread. But you have to get all 5 games right to move on. So a team favored by 9.5 will now only have to win by 3.5, a team that is getting 2.5 points will now be getting 8.5 points.

Level 9: Rank 'Em: Pick starting quarterbacks and rank them in order of passing yards they will have this week, from most to least. You must get the entire order correct. TWO CHOICES: You may rank three quarterbacks whose team wins the game, OR any four quarterbacks. All selected quarterbacks must start their game. You must pick all players at once; you cannot make a partial pick to complete later.

Level 10: Obstacle Course: For this level, you are trying previous levels (although some of them are easier than before): You must SUCCESSFULLY pick one team to win, one team to win with the spread, one team to score 28 or more/14 or less, one over/under, one player to score a non-passing touchdown, AND quarterback to throw for at least 280 yards. You can't pick the same team more than once.

Schedule: (Favorites listed first; home team in CAPS)

Thursday, December 22nd
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) vs Jacksonville 37.5

Saturday, December 24th
1 PM ET
Buffalo (-8.5) @ CHICAGO 40.5
CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs New Orleans 32.5
TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Houston 35.5
KANSAS CITY (-9.5) vs Seattle 48.5
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs New York Giants 47.5
Cincinnati (-3.5) @ NEW ENGLAND 41.5
Detroit (-2.5) @ CAROLINA 43.5
BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs Atlanta 35.5
4 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs Washington 37.5
DALLAS (-4.5) vs Philadelphia 47.5
8 PM
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) vs Las Vegas 38.5

Sunday, December 25th (1 PM, 4:30 PM, 8 PM)
MIAMI (-3.5) vs Green Bay 49.5
Denver (-2.5) @ LOS ANGELES RAMS 36.5
Tampa Bay (-7.5) @ Arizona 39.5

Monday, December 26th
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS 45.5

Bonus Question: Tis the season of giving! Which team will commit the most turnovers on Saturday?

I will definitely remember to post the leaderboard this week

FFX

MacArrowny posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/2/1/AABKTfAAEA11.png

This is what you have to select in ublock.

bless

I suddenly identify with plum not caring if town wins

Can yall just hammer so I can go grief in DTC

htaeD posted...

This is the post you mean right, Mzero?
But Lea is right, Ben didnt even bother to follow these words on the very same page. He dropped a vote on Sbell, went back to reread Scare's posts and then declared Scare even more town while trying to get a special on me started.

Honestly I would have preferred the Ben that did sacrifice himself here. But I am clearly biased.

Well he still said it. I never said anything even close to that confident regarding Scare. Literally all I said was I think he's town. Ben was way more confident

TotallyNotMI posted...

"I feel like I'm pretty good at reading Scare. Never forget my successful fake scan gambit in FFXIV. I don't see scum Scare here. He seems consistent and his reads make sense. Scum Scare I feel like tends to say things that make it obvious he isn't reading the game and then ignore any questions about it." - Mzero

Wow look a read with reasoning behind it that happened to be wrong

MZero posted...

Dude

Ben literally said he was so sure Scare was scum he would rather be lynched himself instead

Plz

I mean town obv

htaeD posted...

I will say that Ben was also defensive of Scare. he and Mzero were about the same on day2 in that regard.

Dude

Ben literally said he was so sure Scare was scum he would rather be lynched himself instead

Plz

Sultan just hammer me I'm over it lol

Your whole argument boils down to "you had bad reads"

Like give me one other thing that's all I ask. Fake reads, fluff, knowledge I shouldn't have, bandwagon voting

Literally anything

I really hope you and Lea and scum and concocted some elaborate ruse with Corrik because otherwise the lack of thinking is kinda disappointing

TotallyNotMI posted...

Saying you can't be scum because you're not playing like scum mzero just shows that you have awareness of how you play differently and would be able to fake it.

Also your constant defense of scare.

You can't say we have no reasoning.

if someone gives me a reason I'll stop saying it

No one is going to lynch you guys for being wrong on me when I flip town. That's not a reason

Ben literally said to lynch him over Scare lmao

TotallyNotMI posted...

MZero's lynch has two confirmed town, town's only gladiator and likely town Sbell.

And zero actual reasons for thinking I'm scum

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

This also seems like town mzero. Way more active and wanted to murder corrik everyday isn't that like obsessive bussing? Does Mzero really bus?

I wasn't here yesterday so I didn't comment on Corrik at all actually

Idk how anyone looks at ben's play and think I'm scummier but oh well

I hope you guys try actually scum hunting after you kill me

htaeD posted...

I dont think you have done much wrong necessarily. But I also haven't see you do much right either.
You feel like a nonfactor for all the major movements.

that is fair

Sorozone posted...

Upgrade over Sarver for sure.

the lowest bar imaginable

Still hype for any owner other than Sarver!

Like actually show me where I was scummy and not just had bad reads. Show me where I was inactive or had fake reads that changed for no reason or I posted fluff to appear active or something. Yeah I tunneled BCT and he flipped town but I just missed the mark. If you compare it to my other town games it's very similar. But yinz are just being lazy and want to lynch me because I was wrong for once, even though no one suspected me before that other than BCT himself

masterplum posted...

Mzero and Ben being scum together seems very unlikely from a role meta perspective,

But damn they both look like ass

how though

what have I done that is scummy? Being wrong isn't scummy

TotallyNotMI posted...

Mzero assume we flip Ben and he flips town fireproof

What will be your defense tomorrow?

I guess town has both untargetable and fireproof for some reason. I doubt I'd be able to avoid getting mislynched anyway though

Corphish
Frogadier
Palafin
Piplup
Quaxly
Squirtle
Totodile
Wailmer

PunishedBen posted...

Personally I think it's weird to be using "if I flip scum untargetable" as a hypothetical in the first place lol. How can you base your argument on something that you "SHOULD" know is untrue ?

because I know how mafia works and that trying to convince people of something using knowledge only I have is pointless

actually he's our only claimed scanner huh

he's probably fine actually

et tu changmas

looking like opportunistic scum here tbh keep an eye on him after I'm gone

*not going to, obviously

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


people have been entertaining it, and I'm obviously talking from the perspective of others as I already know I'm to going to flip scum

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


I already addressed all those. I thought Scare was town because his play didn't make sense as scum and I thought he and ben weren't scum together. While I thought Corrik was town, I was already pushing plum before he voted, it's not like my vote came out of the blue. and I didn't copy and paste anything on BCT, I had several reasons for voting him

You also ignore that I defended Isquen and have been consistently entertaining a Ben lynch (well, he hasn't flipped scum yet but still). Like yeah I was wrong a couple times, but point me to where my logic was inconsistent. You suspected BCT, tons of people thought Scare was town because his actions didn't add up as scum, and no one except plum was really pushing Corrik until the claim. You're just looking at results and not considering how I arrived at these reads

Obellisk posted...

I just don't think I have the brain for this at the moment.

sleeps.

ScuMZero Untargetable + Scum Ben ??? that fakeclaimed fireproof = possible
ScuMZero Untargetable + Scum Ben Fireproof = extremely unlikely

if ben is lynched and flips fireproof, option one is eliminated. If I am lynched and flip scum untargetable, option one is still in play

PunishedBen posted...

Who in particular is being lazy compared to who is being scum trying to push your mislynch?

Lea especially is acting like bad = scum when we all know that isn't true. Also ignoring the majority of the reasons I was pushing BCT, ignored that I voiced suspicion of you throughout the game, etc. it just seems like she made up her mind that I'm scum because of the BCT flip and didn't really think about it all the way through. But I'm pretty sure her and MI are town obviously

now if we lynch ben and he doesn't flip scum fireproof, that's a different story of course

Obellisk posted...

mzero...

if Ben flips scum, you are confirmed town

but if you flip scum Ben isn't confirmed town?

I feel like I'm reading a plum post.

Yes because I can be proven to be untargetable (and you should know this more than anyone!) whereas arsonist is already dead so ben could not even be Fireproof at all. All we have is his word. So us being scum together is possible from an unbiased perspective, but if Ben flips scum Fireproof, it wouldn't make much sense for scum to also have an untargetable, which can be proven that I am

Also the logical play here is to lynch ben. When he flips scum fireproof, I will be basically confirmed town and scum can't kill me. Even if I were to flip scum untargetable, that would not even confirm ben because there's no way to prove he's even fireproof, and also even if he was confirmed scum could just kill him

having an essentially confirmed unkillable town is much better

masterplum posted...

Honestly this might be a little pedantic as this game would be pretty unbalanced if both the arson proof roles were on the same team and Mzero and Ben both look pretty bad.

I have been bad but not scummy. People are just being lazy and trying to lynch me cause my reads were bad. But if you actually pay attention my reasoning was logical and consistent. Sometimes you just miss

also you can compare this to literally any scum game I've every played and realize I'm clearly not scum but again, lazy