Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

according to ctes his shot will kill scum OR 3p, and only won't kill town.

Though now I'm curious what would happen if he targets a 3p who is bulletproof.

changmas posted...

also like why has blade never suggest FD scum in the past two days its super weird

:shrug:

I'm flavor confirmed not-evil, but you kind of are too now unless there's something weird going on.

But hey, I welcome ctes to confirm me town today if he wants. It really feels like we can't lose and I promise to poor a cold canister of "love" out in his honor tonight if he dies confirming me.

changmas posted...

how am i scum if not evil Jeff

yeah, my assumption if you were godfather lawyer was that you would be Evil Jeff

IGCD's flip makes that impossible.

There's Jeff's scummy lawyer friends, but they weren't part of the evil study group. If you're scum the explanation is that you are a "vote mayor" in title rather than a "vote lawyer" or something. But then I don't know why Evil Shirley, Britta or Troy would be a mayor. I guess Troy was the mayor of Fluffy Town, but that was regular troy, not evil troy.

Legit we got lucky last night. Kirby went off script with his jail and ctes bet his life instead of his vote. If scum hadn't fired into protection (or NoKilled?) then we would only have 4 alive today. Crap like that is how ben almost lost us Toy Story, people trying to do more than necessary.

Meow1000 posted...

It's actually rather insulting that you think scum Blade would ever play so poorly.

The thought has crossed my mind as well, but it would have to be sort of a "I'm going to NK infinity times and STILL win the game to assert dominance" type of play on your part, and not because you were being dumb at mafia on accident.

UltimaterializerX posted...

FD and Ben having similar roles

That's not the first time you've said this. How on earth is neighborizer similar to pineapple vendor?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Im at a loss what happened on the night IGCD was saved, or whatever it was.

It had to be a deliberate no-kill, but that's such a gamble that igcd would be protected or that town would be jailed.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Okay sorry I am a bit tired. I can use it now.

okay great! Your previous explanation made it sound like a night shot which was an incredibly slow payoff even in the event you guessed something correctly.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I have it

that wasn't an answer to the question i asked.

ctes, you can fire your shot today? or we have to wait until tonight?

Meow1000 posted...

Kirby blocked you what

yeah, hell if I know. That means either Kirby was the NK target, or I was the NK target, or there was another deliberate NoKill, but if you hadn't saved Kirby and he died then we would have had a false clear on chang based on our assumption that he was supposed to be Jailed.

I was roleblocked, apparently.

Tried to give Chang love, as usual.

C-SPAN coming in clutch

STOP
(I think)

Well tempers are unnecessarily flaming and I think we're all on board with blade's course of action, so I don't see any point letting this carry into the new topic.

##Vote: IGCD

That should be a

STOP

So I'm clear on what happens tonight if IGCD flips scum, but what about if he flips 3p?

Kirby just does whatever?

I have no ulterior motives with my pineapples so Chang is just going to keep collecting sperm regardless

Blade, you should deprive yourself of sleep more often. Your plan feels spot on. When should we hammer IGCD?

Meow1000 posted...

he openly said he was killed out of topic and it's impossible to just completely disregard it.

Ah, I wasn't aware of that. I figured it was safest to assume kidnap until we see a flip that explains that particular day action.

Right, but this is a hypothetical "if you are IGCD's scummate" train of thought. That would involve you knowing that Ctes is not scum, having a belief that his ability to bet his life really exists and thinking he would go through with out despite you telling him not to.

Not sure why you're so insistent on defending the scenario that I already consider to be among the least likely -_-

Going to bed now though, so I guess I can't do this all day.

Meow1000 posted...

The problem is the scariest scenario is also completely broken from a balance perspective.

The IGCD Indy and Ulti/Ctes paranoia has Ulti as vote blocker who can win tonight.

Which means 4+1+1 with a scum EK, an Indy EK, and a scum vote blocker.

That's somehow WORSE game balance then IGCD just being scum.

For all we know the Kidnap was an Indy action? And if IGCD is Indy he didn't get his EK for free, he had to hammer 3x for it and it had to gambit on no actual town vigi to have the freedom to do so.

i still find myself wondering sometimes if the 3x hammer thing was real though. It seems such a strange thing to fake but I wish I had forced him to type a ##Kill command before his hammering was done just to make sure he didn't already have a bullet that he was simply adding set dressing to make more believable.

Meow1000 posted...

Night 5 is actually bad because the EK was supposed to cost town a mislynch opportunity. Losing that kill made the game 1 day longer guaranteed. An intentional no kill on night 5 was almost as bad as doing it on day 7.

Except Ctes was "supposed to" bet his life on IGCD death and he would have died that night, replacing the regularly scheduled night kill.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/c5a18510.jpg

So please just accept that the N7 no kill makes you look pretty good without adding extra nights or false logic that doesn't exist. If this is a performance then you're wasting it on me.

I'm legitimately starting to find myself in favor of the Ctes lynch though. Ctes flip will either confirm or rule out the possibility of a Scum Ulti, he's like 99% likely to be 3P if he's not scum so it's still something that needs to happen anyways.

And hell, I was dead right about Ben's flavor being wrong, why shouldn't I be right about Ctes? You can call me the Flavor Deity after Ctes flips anything but Starburns.

Not gonna vote yet, it's late and I had a long day so it's entirely possible there's angles I'm missing, but even the possibility of 2 scum and a 3P there aren't many scenarios that would lose us the game outright today.

Meow1000 posted...

Uh I may have completely forgotten that Kirby claimed he jailed IGCD. My notes have him on.. Ben for some reason.

But that then still doesn't explain night 7. Ulti-IGCD would've had to no kill night 7.

Why do I even make the spreadsheet? Zzz

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1d3a2859.jpg

So yeah, your ultimate "we would have deliberately NoKill" defense would only really involve deliberate NoKill on Nights 5 and 7. 5 would make perfect sense. 6 is explained by the IGCD jail and 7 is the one that stands out as not making any sense.

We don't know who MZero taunted that night so including him in your defense of yourself doesn't pass muster.

I guess the most tempting thing about a Ctes lynch is that to me he is either scum or 3p. I have trouble really believing any version of this where he is town. So if he flips Scum then it's probably just Ctes + Ulti, and if he flips 3p then it's probably IGCD + someone.

I imagine it would look something like this?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/0009a39c.jpg

I'm penciling in Chang as IGCD's most likely scummate in that position. Your reason's (Blade) for it not being you are pretty compelling, and if it was ever Kirby then the game is just busted. Kirby would have to be some kind of full time backup that has been using Knightz' role since day 1. But that would explain why Kirby only seems to consider his role as a blocking one rather than a protection role. Regardless I think a scum Kirby would win every single scenario I can think of so it's not worth playing around.

Meow1000 posted...

FD for IGCD and I to be scum together means we have effectively no killed on 4 consecutive nights

for starters, it would be 3 consecutive nights, not 4. You keep saying 4, it wasn't 4.

MZero was killed Night 4.
No kill on N5, N6, N7

N5 would have been a deliberate NoKill so you could lie and say you protected IGCD. It's a gamble depending on who gets jailed, but it allowed IGCD to misfire on the jailed target (Death) which only "confirmed" that he was saved by you. Deliberate NK.

N6 would not have been a deliberate NK. You wouldn't have expected IGCD to be jailed by Kirby and if he was sending the kill then the kill was stopped.

N7 though would have been a deliberate NK and you're right. That one falls apart. There is NO reason not to play for 6 alive which gives a 2 man scum team Mylo, instead of 7 alive which requires two more mislynches. So for you to be scum with IGCD it would require the No Kill on N5 to confirm both you and IGCD, and then a No Kill on N7 for WIFOM purposes just so you could say "why on earth would I no kill on 7 players alive?".

I don't that is especially likely, I'm just sketching out the possibilities, but please don't repeat the misinformation about 4 nights in a row anymore.

By far the scariest scenario I can imagine is

IGCD is guilty scanning 3p
Ulti + Ctes are scum

Which potentially gives us this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/6/6631b44f.jpg

Now I don't know if ulti could be scum with anyone else. Definitely not with Blade, possibly with Chang but he's been holding off on the "scan" of his partner all game for reasons? A wild theory would be a scum team of Ulti and IGCD and today is just the ultimate bus. But that would mean that IGCD was the night kill last night? a NK on 7 still doesn't work. Either way that would give us:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f0b1ab2c.jpg

Both of those are pretty scary scenarios, but they require scum ulti which I still can't bring myself to believe. I think it's been mentioned by why else was there a redirection between red/ctes unless it was to foil the cop scan? Otherwise it would have to have been a redirect to make us think that, but unless red or ctes got targeted by someone else we wouldn't have even known about it and ulti scanned blade that night anyways. So it would have been like a double bluff? Throw down a redirect, hope it gets noticed because it points to targeting your night action, but then don't even do the action that the redirect was supposedly targeting? No offense, but scum Ulti isn't that smart.

Introducing Town:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/276372cb.png

If IGCD is scum (as opposed to 3rd party) then who is he scum with? Blade has certainly been doing his damndest to avoid an IGCD lynch by proposing a ctes lynch, but perhaps that's too obvious. Both Ctes and Kirby went in pretty hard against IGCD today which could be distancing. Chang hasn't said very much. Let's run the IGCD is scum scenarios.

IGCD + Blade:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/5/544d608e.jpg

And then I would have thought IGCD+Chang would follow a similar pattern but it's actually quite different:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/b/bdc0d1ae.jpg

IGCD + Ctes feels even less likely to succeed.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/6/67b16946.jpg

At least that's how I would imagine those scenarios going. There could be some variables I'm not aware of that simply haven't surfaced yet. I don't see IGCD being partnered with Kirby or Ulti and I know he's not partnered with me, but the bottom line seems to be that an IGCD + anyone team seems almost assuredly doomed with his lynch today.

Gonna post this and see how the images come out before I trace out some of the other combinations.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Scum would never do this.

Scum wouldn't know what the 3p rules are though? Maybe I'm more inclined to feel like it could have been an ulti gambit simply because he literally tried the same against me.

Anyways I'm gonna spend some more time away and think about the various scenarios that are possible. I'll be back later

UltimaterializerX posted...

Fourth.

Alignment.

Ben was literally 4th Alignment this game so there's that.

we should assume that there are 2 scum remaining AND a 3rd alignment.

4v1v1v13 would be the setup.

We assume the kidnap on Lopen was from scum, but it could possibly have been from the 3p. But the 4th alignment won with either town or scum, so a hypothetical 3rd alignment would have to win alone somehow and it's hard to understand how. They haven't demonstrated any ability to kill unless it doesn't activate until the entire scum team is gone. I guess it could be Ctes and he automatically wins after he gets a certain number of bets correctly if he's telling the truth about his betting? But he's claimed to have lost every bet.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Yeah how about getting over not liking me and not assuming Im an idiot all the time, thanks. Worst reason to throw a game.

And no, I didnt figure it out without help. I was originally going to, and did, submit a PM to scan you. I changed my mind later after rereading Bens slip. He goofed and told us theres 2 scum left, which town could not have known about. Saw that, changed my mind, scanned him instead.

Legitimately do not care if you scan me or not, I know what I am. You came at me hot yesterday pretending you scanned me guilty, something I know is impossible. It's possible you pivoted and came at Ben hot too, but rather than denying it he just rolls over because he DOES scan guilty.

If you are on a 4 man scum team in 19 you would know that 3rd party (or in this case 4th party?) is likely and/or probable. So once we're down to the final handful of players you could theoretically toss out some "guilty" scans and see if they flip under the pressure. Something I did not do because I am town, and something Ben did because he was NOT town.

But you seem to misunderstand the point I was making which is that it seems unlikely you would have done all that which makes the guilty scan on igcd seem real. That's why those 2 points are at odds with each other. I have a compelling reason to believe in both you and IGCD, two things that can no longer both be true.

But meanwhile I'm trying to straighten everything out and ya'll are still just bickering back and forth.

Might just take a break and plot out some scenarios with a pen/paper and see what makes the most sense.

And yeah, there's the matter of night 5.

Death was claimed Jailed by Kirby
IGCD was claimed protected by Blade

Death flipped vanilla

So either Death was targeted for the NK (and protected by Kirby)
or IGCD was targeted for the NK (and protected by Blade)
Or scum deliberately NoKilled.

Unless I'm mistaken neither Kirby or Blade revealed on day 4 who they would target that night so a deliberate NoKill is just a straight up role of the dice that the other night actions would not incriminate you.

Here's the mental roadblock I'm stuck on currently.

1) I find it hard to believe IGCD is scum who claimed his dayvig shot not even halfway into day 1 before anyone claimed. There are actual town vigis in nearly every game who would have ended him on sight.

2) I find it hard to believe that Ulti just magically figured out Ben wasn't town. So either it was a gambit and Ben just rolled over or he actually has a way to detect if someone is town or not.

Those to thoughts are very difficult to hold simultaneously.

Another consideration now that votes are down is that if IGCD is town then that means the scum votes are already on him, or a hammer would have occurred. OR if there are only 2 scum they can't even win with 1 mislynch so they aren't too keen on hammering. And if IGCD is one of two remaining scum then would his scummate want to get a vote down on him early or want to be the one to hammer? And if IGCD is 3rd party (which Ben's flip seems to imply exists) then lynching him only brings us to lylo tomorrow anyways.

I'm sure the game state is more simple than it seems right now, but it feels really damn complex.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/4/4a102abc.png

This is correct, right?

Blade: If your main theory is scum/ulti why are you protecting him?

Ulti: Do you think Blade is wrong scum or wrong town? Could Blade even win from this spot if the scum team is exactly IGCD + Blade? There would had to have been a kill last night for 2 scum to win with a mylo today.

200 posts in 2 hours, is it day 1 again already?

I was at a family birthday party earlier and trying to keep up on mobile, but it turned into a clusterf*** of chaos so I decided to wait until I got home.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but this is what i've picked up so far:

-Ulti is claiming a guilty scan on IGCD
-IGCD is claiming thats not true
-Blade is claiming Ulti/Ctes scum team who will win with a mislynch thanks to vote suppression
-Blade and IGCD are voting Ctes, everyone else is voting IGCD

Gonna go back through the topic more slowly now and collect the nightly actions and try to simply the chaos.

Kirby or Chang pls put day out of it's misery, we're clearly stalled and as much as I love digging through old topics to find hidden morsels I really don't want to atm lol

Kirby321 posted...

I think poor Lea is going insane over how drawn out this game has been lol

It's not our fault some combination of kill prevent and/or choosing not to kill has resulted in 3 nights with no kills

Well, I guess it IS our fault. Keep up the good work!

I think if he's town then mathematically Ctes can actually wager a vote tonight. It's probably still too low % to be worth doing, but if we assume no kill gets prevented we'll be on 6 tomorrow so going down to 5 votes means scum still can't outvote town.

The starburns flavor is still all wrong so I'm not sure even a double vote will convince me he's not bad, but it's better than nothing.

Final vote is yours, Kirby and/or Chang

Kirby321 posted...

If Chang is scum, we might as well quit because scum mayor is just utterly unfair on top of an EK.

Doesn't count as an EK if he isn't allowed to use it to kill town. Which was a restriction the last time scum lawyer was used.

Anyways I'm going to be busy with work until deadline so idk what more I'll even get out of today. My opinion on the remaining scum(s) are pretty set for the moment.

##Vote: Ben

Kirby321 posted...

So yeah... color me deceived. Either Ben is scum, or Ulti has been scum this entire time and actually has two other living scummates ready to end the game.

I think the only conspiracy theory I can come up with that would still explain a Scum ulti would be:

-Scum not only janitored Lopen (and he was Cop), but they actually assimilated his role and gained a nightly cop scan.

-Using that cop scan they actually located another guilty scanning entity in Ben

Because if Ben is to be believed then there can't be 3 scum alive, or if there are, ben is one of them. So it would either be a scum ulti bussing a scum Ben, or a scum ulti who actually located a guilty scanning Ben. Otherwise, as you said, Ben would have put up a fight.

But overall Town ulti seems much more reasonable than it did yesterday.

Okay finally back on PC, an update with last night's actions and Ben's updated claim:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f75f2d16.jpg

.

And just a friendly reminder that ya'll doubted me:

Forceful_Dragon posted...

And I fucking knew MI was Magnitude, but I thought he might be Bodyguard. There is an important scene in Season 2 during a paintball episode where Magnitude jumps on a paint grenade to save everyone else in the room. The BG flavor practically rights itself. For Shame, Lea.

And Ben as Buddy, the Bulletproof Neighborizer? I press X to doubt on that shit. It's barely more than a jack black cameo, he's in ONE episode, shows NO characteristics that would allow him to not be killed (but he can do a wicked jump kick? It's Jack Black after all) and nothing that would make him neighborizer-y.

My money has him as either Ben Chang (at the height of his Changlorious Bastard ways) or Vice Dean Laybourne of the Air Conditioning School Annex. Both would make incredible 3rd party flavors,

Ben Chang "can't be killed"

Source:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jU4e8DV61I

And Vice Dean Laybourne has a way at getting at people. There is an entire arc where he recruits Troy to join the Air Conditioning repair school despite his unwillingness to participate.

Buddy is a flavor mess and maybe it's just the mother of all flavor traps, but holy shit is it just wrong for that role.

Kirby321 posted...

Like, I get the feeling Blade or I would've been dead immediately after MZero if you were scum.

Blade or Death or Red would have been vanished day 1 that's for damn sure, and claimed protection would have fallen ASAP.

I'm legitimately excited for the game to be over so I can read scum chat and all of Ben's neighbor chats.

I honestly wouldn't even be upset to get NKd. It means I won't get mislynched at least and it's been exhausting being in a nearly 3 week long game. What was that Bilbo quote? I feel like not enough butter scraped across too much bread.

The confirmation that I was right about Ben has been exhilarating and helps a but, but I hope we can agree to end the day in 24 hours rather than going the entire 48.

Kirby321 posted...

You keep using the word "protect". I thought it was clear that the only way I intended to protect people was by roleblocking their killers lol

Regardless of your intent, your role provides protection.

And it wouldn't have bothered me if you jailed me, my role doesn't really do anything anyways. You want to protect me tonight? Knock yourself out.

But honestly I'm most sure about ctes, and the last could be nearly anyone.

PunishedBen posted...

What would happen if he just puts them all on town...? Nothing? Even though it's past majority? Breaks the set rules of the game

Yes?

When I was scum lawyer I wasn't allow to pick town. I assume I still could have typed the command and it would have just... Not worked. Wouldn't have looked good for me that's for sure.

I'm just saying you can't equivocate a shot that hit town, versus a lawyer that potentially could not.

PunishedBen posted...

So you can kill me today, just promise you wont let them win if it comes down to it. And please, tell me my logic is wrong and IGCD has to be town

I think you actually raised some good and interesting points.

The only fault I could really find with your logic is comparing igcd's day vig shot to chang's lawyer. If he's a scum lawyer then past experience tells us he would only be allowed to lawyer scum. So it wouldn't really be a 2nd scum EK, it would be a form of confirmation camouflage.

But otherwise solid stuff and I'll be curious to see what IGCD says, especially regarding the MI stuff.

(Edit: swypos)

If ctes is bad he's Evil Troy, full stop.

Kirby321 posted...

I think #2 is obscenely unlikely. Why would scum try to shoot IGCD twice in a row?

lol the fact that you think that probably makes it the most likely. And if that's how you felt, why did you protect him?

ctesjbuvf posted...

I thought community was a fun sitcom, why do the characters have evil versions anyway lol.

Watch season 3, episode 4.
You legitimately don't need to understand anything going into that episode to enjoy it and it is peak television.

The "Evil Studygroup" only shows up a few times after that one, culminating in a terrible paintball showdown in Season 4, Episode 13, but that was the awful season so don't worry about it.

Gonna go play some league before going to see IF in theaters so I'll be back late. Prepare for me to be more arrogant than usual when I get back

So going into today I assumed it was either 6 vs 2 or 5 vs 3. Well actually I assumed it was going to be 5 vs 2 or 4 vs 3, but another kill was prevented =P

New assumption can really only be 5 vs 2 + 1 with the 1 being Ben.

Mislynching today would end the game at 3 vs 2 + 1 so the Ben lynch absolutely must happen, but we can still try to figure out the other two.

Ulti is unlikely to be scum who just happened to gambit a guilty scan on Ben. So his chance of wearing a Lopen mask went way down, which conversely means the chance of Blade being the Lopen has gone way up. That would mean night 5 was the result of either a deliberate NoKill by Blade, or a random NK targeting Death (who was also protected).

Chang as scum lawyer is still an option, he put did bury wallz, but it's not like he (wallz) didn't already have a foot in the grave.

Ctes is still an option as well. especially now that Ben has openly claimed 3P every single flavor is pitch perfect...except Ctes. Ben was an exception before as well, but that is now a confirmed fake claim. And what flavor would fit someone who doesn't always have a vote(voice)? Evil Troy.

Still can't really see a case for IGCD or Kirby