Lurker > ShatteredElysium

Mario vs. Bowser - 69.5%

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy - 58.2%

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Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth - 57.5%

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Alucard vs. Dracula - 54.3%

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Link vs. Ganondorf - 71.2%

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Samus Aran vs. Ridley - 54.2%

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Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue - 52.5%

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Mega Man X vs. Zero - 59.25%

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Mario vs. Bowser - 61.4%

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Sora vs. Riku - 53%

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Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy - 70.54%

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Wish I'd seen the match pic before making my prediction for this match. Damn Bacon and his not uploading pictures before I go to bed.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Oh I know. It's sort of on the cusp of being chaseable. I think any higher and it would require mistakes from Lefty for me personally to do it. That's not saying others wouldn't be able to chase it though cos I'm certainly nowhere near the best Oracle predictor!

And I think he means overall Top 5's rather than individual matches Red Sox. You're projected to come second Ngamer and then win next year! 5th > 4th > 3rd previous contests so it would be natural progression!

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Dear Lefty,

Please stop conceding points to me only to claw them back over the next 1-2 matches.

You have done it virtually every time I've thought 'Well that gap is just about getting to uncatchable levels without upsets'. It is giving me false hope.

Either pull away or let me catch up. Pick one!

Many thanks,

SE

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Purging is bad.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Well there's also the fact that Dante has the uncanny knack of blowing out weaker opposition and then folding once he meets anyone with any remotely decent strength.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

There will have been some form of SFF involved in the Vyse match. As well as Kid and Guy getting a great picture and possibly joke votes to make them look better.

Granted it's not exactly the same but Samus would be projected to get 67.58% on Kefka and he's the stronger of the pairing. That's a lot of ground to make up to make it close.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Man City
Man Utd
Tottenham
Chelsea
Arsenal
Liverpool

Liverpool need to start consistently taking points from the lesser teams before they can be top 4 again. They're just not clinical enough and are prone to dropping points to teams they should beat because they can't convert just 1 of the 15-20 chances they get.

Arsenal look good at the minute. They have a decent chance at 3rd/4th but I think it hinges heavily on how many game Van Persie can play. If he gets through the full season I reckon they'll be top 4. If he gets injured then it depends how they cope.

Chelsea look terrible at the moment but with the players at their disposal they should be able to turn it around. And we all know that if things are still dire in January, they will splash the cash.

Tottenham look far better than I thought they would after they lost at OT early on in the season. Their midfield is world class and potentially the best out of all 6 teams. They look less dodgy defense wise purely because you have to get past a sweaty Scott Parker to get to it now.

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Bradford City have signed Benson for £150k (Loan until Jan) and given him a 3 and a half year contract. This is despite the fact he's 32 and failed the medical due to his knee being ****ed and 'only having a year left in him'.

Also asking price was apparently £100k. Just how badly can you run a football club...

Sky Sports still reporting it as broken down due to the medical though http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12876_7330457,00.html

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

It isn't pointless, no. At the end of the day it doesn't matter what me,Camden, Lefty or anyone else thinks. All that matters is what Carvy thinks. If you can convince him, then that's enough.

You'll have to excuse people for being suspicious but look it from our POV. Last year both the individual and team contest was won by someone who is quite possibly an alt account. There was also accusations of shady tactics (mimicry to defend a lead).

So with the evidence stacked up against you guys, you're not going to easily be given the benefit of the doubt. You're new users who look like you're solely here for the Oracle with knowledge that is generally associated with years of being around B8. And you could have easily proven you were seperate people but opted not to.


If you are seperate people then just prove it to Carvy and nobody else. It would be a crying shame for people to be wrongly thrown out of the contest. Especially people who are challenging for the overall win.

If you are who you say then you deserve to be in but you need to prove it.

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I can't make sense of this at all. Is kanodish also saying that s/he is a roommate of Ricedream/Cbaron?

And like creative said, is it confirmed that FootBallLion also shares an IP with those 2-3?

So if they are seperate people, there's 3 or 4 of them. Who are all roommates with at least 2 seperate computers being used? And 3 of those accounts have been created pretty much solely for Oracle purposes?

It's plausible but just sounds unlikely/suspicious. Can a mod check through and ensure that there isn't any other accounts posting on that IP?

And if you guys are seperate people then can't you just clear it up by sending Carvy some proof in a PM? It's not like the rest of us have to have anything to do with it. All we need is Carvy to confirm you are unique people, we don't need to see the proof.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Oracle. Serious business yo.

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Yeah, I was going to post something like 'Omg does this mean we get an extra minute!?' but then decided not to as I cba waking up at 5am to purposedly do this.

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It's implied by Ngirl's post. Least that's how I read it.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Pretty much agree with creative. If they did that or even like a double signed pic that was just PM'ed to Carvy then I'd believe them.

If anyone was willing to go to that sort of length to get an increased chance of winning a small internet contest against complete strangers (since it's their first contest), then they have bigger issues than the Oracle.

And is it confirmed all three share an IP? It looks ambiguous to me as it could just be the 2.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

I think people were always skeptical but they got the benefit of the doubt due to the number of years both accounts had been around. Plus it was like a boardwide thing rather than just the Oracle.

And I'm pretty sure we all have better things to do than wonder if someone is pretending to be multiple users. It probably wouldn't have come up here for Cbaron/Ricedream if they were established B8'ers/Oracle participants.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Oh and if the accounts are merged/removed.

To alleviate Lefty's concerns we could always say that the latest predictions method will only be used if it results in a lower score (not individually per match, I mean after all changes). And if it actually improves the score, then just delete the accounts instead of merging (i.e. effectively leaving the score as it is now).

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

-LusterSoldier- posted...
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/22/2011 12:54:54 AM | message detail | quote
- Deleting users "ricedream" and "FootBallLion" from the site.

FootBallLion shouldn't be deleted from the site, because that account did not make any predictions for the first 15 matches and would have no chance to win the Oracle Challenge.

Respectfully disagree. An accounts overall prospects of winning the competition should have zero bearing on whether it should be deleted or not. The only deciding factor should be whether or not it is an alt account.

It messes with the all-time stats if it is not a bonafide competitor. Any Top 5 it obtains would take away a Top 5 from another user. The accounts overall average would be included towards everybody elses points above average. And I also believe the overall/current ranking points award points based on how many people participated so it would mess with that too.

Plus, then where do you draw the line? What would stop someone from entering an alt account a few matches in to try get Top 5's. And why stop there? They could enter 5, 10, 20+ alts to try get Top 5's as long as they waited a few matches before doing so.

If it is an alt it should be deleted. If it isn't an alt it should stay. That should be the only deciding factor and nothing else.

EDIT: Unless you mean that you don't think it is an alt account and/or should be given the benefit of the doubt. If so, ignore the above >_>

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

th3l3fty posted...
I strongly dislike the idea of combining the old predictions of three accounts - they were clearly intended to be kept separate, and it has the potential to actually raise cbaron's score - which would be the exact opposite of punishing him

It also has the potential to lower it. And I'd say it has the greater potential to lower it than raise it. You're merging a lower ranked account with a higher account so surely the odds are in favor of their being more changes for the worse, than for the better? Plus, it's far more likely that you will make the riskier picks on the account that is further behind imo.

And taking away a potential team overall victory is pretty damn punishing if you ask me.


I agree that the evidence stacks up despite the denial. There's always the chance that they are two seperate users.

But what are the chances that two new users join the Oracle with both of them happening to be pretty damn handy predictors. Plus they decide to team-up. Plus they both post at times close to each other with 1 account logging out before the other one posts. It's highly, highly suspect to me.


The easiest way of clearing this up is if they provide Carvy with some proof they are seperate entities. Even if it's kept to PM's.

I'm fine with whatever Carvy decides.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

It's ok, we don't have to ban Lefty. Just someone sabotage his internet like 10 minutes before match start time! He needs the handicap!

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's what would happen anyway. Unless it was common knowledge that the alt belonged to that person.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

If it were me in charge I would remove the alts from the competitions and register them as alts for that user. Then providing it isn't a huge hassle to retrospectively do this, force him/her to take the latest entry from those alts.

For example, If they made a change on one of the alt accounts after the last change on their main, it should override the main accounts pick just like it would for anyone else making a change.

The only advantage I could see from posting on an unknown alt is posting a change on the alt and then if it works out better going 'Oh, that account is my alt btw, I forgot to say'. And if it doesn't work out better, just saying nothing.


Tbh, they're lucky you're not considering DQ'ing their main imo. It blatantly goes against the spirit of the contest. Whether they are in contention or not, it gives them more chances at winning and also like you said, it takes away Top 5's from other people. Plus skews the all-times stats and the such.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

The shortlist was only made on November 1st I think so he still had something like 28 goals in 29 games.

Rooney is on that list and his record in that time period is 27 goals in 54 games for comparison. And he's not the weakest player of the 21 shortlisted.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Van Persie single-handedly saving my fantasy season.

Absolute travesty that he wasn't even shortlisted for player of the year. That's 31 goals for him this calendar year. Sure Messi and Ronaldo score more than him but they're also in superior teams who dominate opposition more. And what about the other 19 on that list ahead of him?

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

If I was actually miles out of contention, I think I'd probably pull the trigger on the Ramza upset here. It's what my bracket says but just can't bring myself to go for it whilst there's a chance of a decent finish when a wrong prediction would is worth like 15 places atm.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Ugh, slept through the start again so couldn't change. I really need to start making my changes before I go to sleep. What a pain as my safety is absolutely shocking.

I suppose on the brightside, at least I had a safety.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

I've never been able to find that page. At a complete guess, it's probably going to be one of the newer people who is above you because I can't think of anyone long-term above you.

EDIT: Or maybe not. The 4-ways will have brought your average down I reckon.


I do live in a friendlier country! The only problem is that I'm only in Orlando half the year! Probably permanently by next contest though, assuming there is one.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Being in the UK sucks at times, didn't wake up in time and would have raised my prediction to 62% ish. Polls need to start at a friendlier time, like not 5am >_>

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Should have stayed asleep and not bothered updating my prediction!

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Lefty completely bossing it and showing us how you chase down a gap. Perfects all the way!

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Alucard/Shepard match is looking boring for Oracle purposes towards the top. Pretty much everyone has plumped for around the same figure so there probably won't be much movement. Pah.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Yeah, it wasn't ever too bad if you picked wrong in a close match. You were generally losing 7-10 points. But picking wrong in this contest the penalties have usually ended up at 10-15.

A wrong pick today, which seemed to be debateable, could cost you 12+ points depending on how much you favoured Gordon. In the Tidus match you were looking at a 13-15+ point loss.

On the flipside though, if a match blindsides the majority of people then you can gain big. If one match doesn't go as expected/isn't close then you're looking at 10+ point gains.

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Lopen posted...
Bleh. I think I'd be in first if not for my 3 incorrect picks! Vicious.

Hindsight is suck a **** at times isn't it? I try not to think about my **** ups cos it never ends well!

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

th3l3fty posted...
ugh, totally would've gone lower if we'd seen that atrocity of a Zidane/Kuja pic earlier

I can't even remember changing my pick to 73.5%. I remember posting 66.4% and then going to bed not long afterwards. Woke up thinking 'Awesome! Made up all the ground from my **** up yesterday' and then noticed in my AMP a post at 3:28am.

The wife says she didn't notice me waking up in the middle of the night so I have no idea what happened. Must have done it like half-sleep or something >_>

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Well my initial response is 'Oh crap. I got too greedy...'

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Omg let's make it a threeway rivalry! I don't want to lose to a former teammate or something!

Also, we'd be winning the team contest if we were a team again this year!

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Those stats are basically what I went with too. It doesn't take into account Boss/Jecht true but Big Boss is legit strong even if it is because he's a Snake proxy.


And huzzah, should be back in the overall Top 10 for the first time since SpC2K10 after this match. This of course means that my Amaterasu prediction should be horrific!

I was thinking earlier today, is there any rivalries between Oracle contestants? Obviously me and DSR have a jokey rivalry over our averages but is there anybody else?

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

The oracle is one of the few reasons I stick around Board 8 still tbh. It's definitely my favourite time of year.

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There's something eerily reminiscent of last year about Yesmar's lead

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Really want to raise Terra/Kefka because of x-stats but then also want to lower it because FF6 characters can't blowout anything. So stuck in some sort of midground limbo where I'm probably going to get bitten in the ass.

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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time