Lurker > Bearnorn

Futures are looking pretty bad.

Between the inflation numbers, the delta variant, earnings, and the constant talk about overvaluation, I'm feeling bearish this week.

I'm holding because I missed my sell window (I wanted to sell on the 9th but I didn't get to it). But I'm considering waiting to buy.

I was looking at futures this morning and they were all down. The Dow and S&P 500 are up, though NASDAQ is down. With earnings season coming up, I'm getting the feeling that futures traders don't feel confident about the market.

I'm considering reducing my positions and holding cash. Or just using a lot of cash I haven't touched yet for investing to buy the dip when it happens. I just feel like we're approaching another market peak.

masterplum posted...

Eh, I think it depends on what you are investing in. If you are investing in an index fund or a blue chip company I think you are pretty safe

This is what I'm moving towards. My "winnings" from those can be used to play with meme stocks. So far, I've made money on ETFs and lost it on even "safe" stocks like Disney.

But even then, I'm only depositing at most $1,000 per week because I'm worried about a crash so I'm dollar cost averaging.

All that said, I'm still kinda feeling bearish on the stock market. Inflation isn't looking great, and they're already talking about the stock market being overpriced.

Not sure if I'll keep investing or pull money out. Also considering getting into REITs and essential companies such as grocery stores and energy providers. Things that get hit hard by inflation but still get bought by consumers anyway because they still need to eat and get to work. My logic is that prices and profits will go up, even though inflation keeps it the same in terms of buying power. It's an inflation hedge.

Then again, I'm also just considering buying gold for that purpose.

Still feeling bearish long term but I'm playing with stocks anyway because there's gains to be had.

I'm looking into stuff like M1 Finance for more smart, long term, "add a bit and watch it grow" investing but I also feel like I need a real trading platform because I want to be able to yank out my investments if things go south quickly.

Still feeling that everything is overvalued, especially crypto. Been watching some videos lately and I saw this one about a crash. What's interesting about this though is that there might be a reduction in margin debt because borrowing on margin has been slowing lately. I agree that we could see people start to reduce margin usage. After all, we've already seen a big margin call with Archegos. With the market dipping in February, I could see some people getting fearful about a crash and additional margin calls so they may reduce positions as a result.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqKkHj5DPT4

That said, I've only been playing with stocks for about 3 months so I don't have a lot of experience, but this is what's making sense to me.

ow ow ow my portfolio ow

With the large sales I'm hearing about from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and the futures not looking great, I'm considering stop lossing everything I've made profits on. TD Ameritrade allows me to sell some of my ETFs ($2,700 worth) now. I'm considering doing it.

Kinda feel like I started at the tail end of a bull market and now we could be going into a bear market.