Lurker > seqntenialbeast

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Topicman, remember when we had the chance to nominate bernie
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:17:57 AM
#2
there never was a chance. Can't fight the DNC propaganda machine

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Topicas a black person that lives in a hyper republican area...
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:16:41 AM
#43
I deleted those posts incase anyone else interpreted that as some kind of threat? It wasn't

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Topicas a black person that lives in a hyper republican area...
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:15:17 AM
#41
If Trump wins then TC wouldn't be afraid, I don't get how people can interpret that as me hoping they get harmed. I don't want anyone to get hurt.

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Topicas a black person that lives in a hyper republican area...
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:13:44 AM
#37
I'm not wishing harm, TC is afraid if Trump LOSES

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TopicWin or lose, Trumps supporters have been absurdly overconfident this year.
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:12:39 AM
#10
Trump did better early last year too. He held the popular vote for most of the day. Then a surge of votes for Hillary came later at night.
So I wouldn't celebrate just because he pulls ahead early.

Stay strong, boys

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TopicNYPD puts potenital would-be rioters on notice. 'We know who you are'
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:02:37 AM
#15
viewmaster_pi posted...
they found out about CE


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TopicTrumpers: Bet your accounts on the election
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:01:51 AM
#3
odds don't look good, not worth it

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Topicas a black person that lives in a hyper republican area...
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:01:16 AM
#11
In fact, I think I'm going to go vote for Trump to put you at ease

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Topicas a black person that lives in a hyper republican area...
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 9:00:31 AM
#10
Well hopefully Trump wins then

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:59:32 AM
#34
It's not trolling. I'm not saying Biden is going to lose, just that polls aren't necessarily accurate because of flawed sampling. You can just wikipedia everything I said about statistics and margin of error if you don't believe me

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TopicITT: Post "I Voted" when you have voted
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:48:53 AM
#2
I dropped my ballot off days ago

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:46:54 AM
#31
MaddenDude-- posted...
if ur so smart then why dont you tell us if the 538 model is accurate or not

I already explained it, he'll verify what I said and why it's technically not random sampling

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TopicWas Trump really "good for the economy" before the pandemic?
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:45:40 AM
#6
DoctorPiranha3 posted...
No he was awful. Road the coattails of what Obama did and took full credit for it.
What did Obama do to stimulate the economy?
Wallstreet bailout? Is that what people are referring to, as if Trump or anyone else wouldn't have bailed out big banks

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TopicWin or lose, Trumps supporters have been absurdly overconfident this year.
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:42:19 AM
#8
I've been saying he would lose all week, what do you mean

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:41:09 AM
#24
Tyranthraxus posted...


Get out and vote!


Go out and vote for Trump!

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:36:03 AM
#19
So it's like a blind man taking 5 marbles from a bag, but some of the marbles are some how not from the right bag (actual voters) and some of the marbles don't tell you the color they are(let's say green marbles are more likely to not say) and purple marbles sometimes lie about what color they are. You have no way of knowing these behaviors or trends so you can't really adjust your calculations around them, but they try.

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:33:24 AM
#17
Rathinor posted...
How would you make that case? Polling is completely random sampling. It's weighted afterwards, which if you passed your statistics class you'd understand the difference

Here, Pew goes over how it's definitely random sampling
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/u-s-survey-research/frequently-asked-questions/

No, it isn't. If you take a random sample of 5 marbles out of a bag, that's random because all the 5 marbles are part of the set and you know what they are is what they actually are. A blue marble means a blue marble, a green marble means green.

Just because someone says they will vote, doesn't mean they will. Just because someone says they will vote for X, doesn't mean they will. And lastly, not everyone called will answer their phone.

This introduces variables that might differ between demographics

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:30:52 AM
#15
Rathinor posted...
Think of the chances this way

In 9 out of 10 scenarios (different combinations of states going red/blue) Biden wins

1 out of 10 of those scenarios is a Trump win

It doesn't mean Biden will get 90% of the votes or ECs

For you to say that, the scenarios would all need the exact same probability, which is not what this is saying.
The 90% is based on the margin of error. The sample sizes are about 1000 each and I think they are using a 95% confidence interval. But the margin or error only applies if it was true random sampling.

The way they sample, is they have an arbitrary metric of who is a "likely voter" and they call their phone and ask who they are voting for.

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Topic538's FINAL Model For The Presidential Election Is Out (D-89%, R-10%, Tie - 1%)
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:25:40 AM
#9
Evening_Dragon posted...
Note that trusting the polls doesn't mean 90% turns into 100%, or that 10% turns to 0%.

Statistics desperately need a boost in the public education spheres.

Just an fyi, as someone who actually took statistics, Margin of Error only applies to random sampling of a total amount. You can make the case that polling is not random sampling.

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TopicI am envious of Trump supporters in one way
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 8:21:03 AM
#4
KiwiTerraRizing posted...
The guy you are against is trying to give you healthcare and more services. Pretty sweet deal.

That's not how it works. "Free" just means you pay in taxes.
Hey, I'll give you a "Free" iphone, but you have to pay me 1000 dollars a month. Cool?

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TopicWe have a spirit called Fuck Trump
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 7:57:35 AM
#6
I'm guessing Danish people base America on John Oliver

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TopicJust found out my brother has voted for Trump.
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 7:54:50 AM
#6
Your brother sounds cool as fuck

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TopicThe President, on the election
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 7:05:53 AM
#2
Trump 2020

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TopicHow's voting been, Americans? Did you have a peaceful normal time doing it?
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 6:39:23 AM
#10
spikethedevil posted...
How does it feel for the Americans in states where the EC has 3ish total votes? Where your vote literally means nothing.

It means nothing in non-battleground states

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TopicWhy is election day a tuesday?
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 6:36:39 AM
#18
You have 22 days to vote.

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 5:02:21 AM
#25
Carter, both Bushes, just from recent memory, were worse

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TopicWhat would happen if Biden wins but dies before he's sworn in?
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 5:01:31 AM
#7
AirFresh posted...
I think it'd be Harris/Pelosi


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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:42:14 AM
#19
berlyman101 posted...
they have over twice as many people as the US tho

death rate, as in deaths per 100,000.
France, UK, And US have the same rate. Belgium and Spain got hit the hardest (of the west)

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TopicCome to the dark side and vote Trump
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:40:04 AM
#1
Cool kids vote Trump. Are you a cool kid or a dork?

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TopicSon disowns Mum after she told him she is voting for Trump
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:38:32 AM
#27
That kid sounds completely brainwashed

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TopicLil Pump is Now Lil Pimp Courtesy of Trump
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:36:23 AM
#3
He should change his name to Lil Pimp

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:35:53 AM
#17
The death rate was similar to Europe, that talking point is is weak from a statistics standpoint

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:12:12 AM
#14
Selfish, Boastful, Colorful, but a force of good for Dreamland

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:11:19 AM
#12
Notti posted...
If Donald loses tomorrow, he will be reviled for decades.

He will be the new Nixon.

Enjoy.

Trump is the King Dedede of America

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:10:29 AM
#11
Delirious_Beard posted...
TC how much were you hoping that big bad evil ANTIFA would burn down seattle

I would rather they be arrested than destroy a liberal city. I joke about liberals, but these Seattle anarchist riots are something else.

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:09:21 AM
#9
berlyman101 posted...


people are gonna be talking about this era for centuries

This biggest underdog story of our lifetime. Trump had no career in politics, he shit talked for years, joined the election randomly and wrecked with very little financial backing compared to his opponents.

His own party conspired against him. The GOP were the ones who funded the Steele Dossier.

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 4:05:29 AM
#6
At least when he's gone I can admit in public that I liked him.

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 3:55:18 AM
#2
Oh yeah, got COVID at near 80 and overcame it in two days.

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TopicWhen Trump loses can we finally admit he was a good president
seqntenialbeast
11/03/20 3:54:38 AM
#1
No war mongering, actually became friendly with previously loose canon leaders of the world like Kim Jong Un, didn't answer to politicians or media, actively let people come to the white house to pitch him ideas despite not being involved in politics. Thought George Floyd was a tragedy, but actually condemned the riots and chaos. Let states handle covid policy etc at the state and city level.

And he had no job experience and shit talked his way through everything.
I'm going to miss this guy.

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TopicDonald Trump account bets
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 6:30:43 AM
#6
1234Life posted...
I really wanna believe that Biden has this one in the bag, but Im also fully aware that idiots completely outnumber educated folks in the USofA

California has lower IQ scores and SAT scores than the redneck states. Let that sink in.

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TopicDonald Trump account bets
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 6:27:26 AM
#2
you are betting an icon account on a 99 to 1 underdog?

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TopicRemember when Obama took our guns, cancelled Christmas
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 6:26:33 AM
#3
Obama > McCain, Obama > Romney, Trump > Hillary, Trump > Biden

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TopicCalifornia has a proposition that legalizes insitutional discrimination
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 6:18:13 AM
#11
Blue_Inigo posted...
Prop 16 would restore affirmative action in public education, public employment and public contracting after a nearly 25-year ban. It would help fix the systemic gender and race issue that permeates our country.

Dont mischaracterize it.

I'm not mis-characterizing anything. The law repeals prop 209, which is that piece in the opening post.
I posted the piece of the California Constitution in the opening post.
The weird part is they tried to repeal this in 2011, but Jerry Brown veto'd it.

Jerry Brown seems to be the last sane California politician we had.

Look at the people who endorsed this:
https://voteyesonprop16.org/endorsements/

I can't believe what the Democratic party has become.

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TopicBuy gun now before to late
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 5:48:42 AM
#27
The police in America will let you die before they protect your business or your property. You can't really depend on them at all.

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TopicCalifornia has a proposition that legalizes insitutional discrimination
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 5:41:17 AM
#3
Liberals have become a parody

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TopicTrump is testing his supporters.
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 4:59:15 AM
#5
I genuinely don't understand why you still simp for the Democratic party. Your posts seem rational otherwise.

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TopicIs Trump going to be the first incumbent president to lose in a while?
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 4:58:23 AM
#7
008Zulu posted...
That's close to 30 years ago.
aka 3 presidents ago.
How is that a long time?
And Carter before him.

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TopicCalifornia has a proposition that legalizes insitutional discrimination
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 4:55:41 AM
#1
It's called Proposition 16, which repeals Proposition 209, passed in 1996.

Proposition 209 added Section 31 to the California Constitution which states
(a) The State shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.

https://ballotpedia.org/Article_I,_California_Constitution#Section_31

The people endorsing this, which I repeat, removes this section that illegalizes sex, race etc based discrimination
are Gavin Newsom, a bunch of celebrities, and it was put forth by the California State Assembly and California State Senate.


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TopicMy tenants say $800/mo is too expensive for rent in San francisco.
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 1:26:52 AM
#31
800 dollars a month? seems really low for San Francisco.


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TopicI've never wanted a candidate to win more than Trump
seqntenialbeast
11/02/20 1:23:45 AM
#4
PatrickMahomes posted...
tag

I thought about making a topic, where if Trump wins, everyone who posted would get a dollar. (Not as a bribe) because it feels so unlikely. But I don't know how I would do that without doxing myself.

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