Lurker > Ngamer64

Abby
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Terry
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Juno
Megaera
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Ngamer the election-to-election MVP

Thanks!

Only correct prediction I'm upset about is that Trump would get someone killed before January 20th.


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Believe it!


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MarkS222222222222222 posted...

What's the source you're using for early results?

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html


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xp1337 posted...

where I would break from Ngamer's analysis is that I would expect the Election Day vote to be more lopsided than it was in the general, so I feel the Dem candidates would need a larger lead coming into today to withstand election day voting.

The Republicans might outperform the ~10% win I have drawn up for them today, but things are not looking promising in terms of total turnout.

Chatham County saw a record early voting turnout but today, officials are seeing slow turnout. For example, a polling station at the civic center in downtown Savannah is seeing eight to nine ballots cast an hour, CNN's Martin Savidge reports.
The voter turnout for today may be lower than projected.

Sterling added that the average wait times theyve seen around the state have been between 1 and 5 minutes this morning.

That's the kind of story we're hearing all across the state, so the Republicans are going to need to hope the current Democratic lead isn't actually as large as I calculated.

Corrik7 posted...

Early voting always is towards the democrat and democrat registered voters always outnumber republicans.

Day of voting will favor the Republicans. Independents will be the key to who wins as always.

That's all true, but it's also all accounted for in my data.

Jakyl25 posted...

But for real though, I hope the Trump message of the November election in Georgia was illegitimate accidentally depresses loyal Trumper turnout

I think it has, and that the Early In-Person numbers reflect this new reality.


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Wait, this topic was still alive? It's a Christmas Miracle!

Well if you're still checking it then you'd probably be happy to hear that another Ng Deep Dive Into The Numbers has been posted, this time regarding today's Georgia special election.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/79219630

Basically, people have been predicting good things for the future of the Republican Party based on how well they did across the board in November (despite their presidential candidate suffering a 7 million vote defeat). I however am of the opinion that their future is bleak, if not outright disastrous, because Donald Trump will never be on another ballot in his lifetime. Their winning sauce in 2020 was the 10% of the country that's always been politically disengaged in the past but showed up for Trump in droves, and those people are never coming back to support any other candidate.

I think we're going to see that in Georgia today, and then again (and in a HUGE way) in 2022.

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The numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for the Republicans in today's Georgia runoff election (for control of the US Senate through 2022).

The Republican candidates (Perdue and Loeffler) have been considered favorites to survive these challenges and keep the Senate total at 52 GOP, 48 Democrat. And I completely understand why. All the polling in the state has been too close to call, and given how much Trump overperformed versus most polls, that's a good position to be in as a Republican. Perdue finished over 88k votes ahead of Ossoff head to head in November, and the GOP candidates combined outpaced the Dem options in the Warnock/Loeffler special election. Plus Republicans have always overperformed in GA runoffs versus the general election. When you combine all of the above with how well the Senate races went for the GOP overall in November, it seems like an open and shut case.

The only problem is... the numbers are in, and frankly, they look brutal. No prior Georgia runoff has ever received more than 2.2 million votes, but over 3 million have already been cast in this race! Over 967k mail in ballots have been returned (and that number will continue to climb) while more than 2 million people voted in person.

But big deal, right? The state had more than 4 million early votes cast in November, and the final margin was still razor thin. Here's where we come to the one important difference between the two elections.

This time, Donald Trump isn't on the ballot.

Ummmm okay, but does that really matter? I'll let you be the judge.

As you can see, we've reached 73% of November's total when it comes to votes cast by mail. Surprisingly, a larger portion of white people are choosing to use this method for the runoff, bumping their representation by .66%. That's dwarfed by black voters boosting their numbers by 1.77%, but less interest from Hispanic and Asian voters should mean that Democratic gains in this area are pretty limited.

Now it's time to check the Early In-Person results, and here's where things get ugly.

The first thing you notice is how much more popular this method of voting has been- double the number of ballots and a stronger 77% of November's total. That wouldn't be a problem expect, whoa are black people ever turning out to the polls (up nearly 4%) while representation from white voters has fallen off a cliff (down 1.5%)! A slight dip in the Latino vote isn't going to do nearly enough to cover up for those losses.

Alright, that's nice and all, but what does this change in voter demographics really mean? Let's do a thought experiment and try to assign hard numbers to the above. Based on the results in November, we know that a Georgia voter's race was huge indicator for what candidate they were likely to support. The final breakdown was


Based on the above, we can use November's racial results breakdown to estimate that Joe Biden won Georgia's Mail In Voting

690k to 609k, 52% to 46%
a 81k vote margin, or 6.15%

That was about as expected. More surprisingly, it would indicate Biden ALSO managed a tight victory for the GA Early In-Person Voting

1.34 million to 1.32 million, 49.7% to 48.9%
a 22k vote margin, or 0.83%

Now let's assume that for the most part Biden voters will go Warnock/Ossoff today while Trump voters will side with a Perdue/Loeffler ticket. If so, here are the current standings for the Mail In Runoff


The Dems increase their win from 6.15% to 6.74%, however because this voting method was less popular, their margin falls to only 65k votes in this area versus Biden's 81k. That's okay, but isn't going to be enough to erase the ~88k gap we saw in Perdue/Ossoff last time around.

Luckily for them there's still the Early In-Person results to tally, and boy howdy!


From .83% this advantage has exploded to 3.94%. When you combine that with how much more important this area is (remember, twice as many votes), the race has been blown wide open! Now the Democrats are favored to win this category by 82k votes instead of Biden's 22k, and the result is drastic.

Biden entered Election Day with a slim lead of 103k votes, or 2.58%, and accordingly Georgia came down to the wire with crucial votes still being tallied a week later.

However for this runoff, the Democrats enter today with a lead of 147k votes, or 4.83% of all votes cast so far. (And remember, that's with quite a few mail in ballots still to arrive.) It's going to take an enormous Election Day turnout to erase that advantage. Can it be done?

Sure, but the thing to remember is... no one wants to wait in long lines during a pandemic. Only 985k Georgians cast their ballots in person on Election Day, representing just 19.7% of total votes cast and making it by far the least popular of the three voting options. The good news for Republicans: they performed very well with those who DID show up, with Trump getting 54% of ED support to Biden's 45%. Even so, that only erased 92k votes from Biden's advantage, which explains how Trump finished 11k behind overall.

If Republicans once again dominate Election Day voting by 9.3% today, but the same 19.7% end up turning out (aka ~747k new voters), they will only be able to eliminate 69k from the Democrat's lead. That would give us a final result of

3,787,027 Votes Cast
1,909,285 for the Democratic Candidates (50.42%)
1,831,887 for the Republican Candidates (48.37%)
a 77,398 vote margin of victory, or 2.04%

With mail in voting trending downward it would appear that fewer Georgians are concerned about COVID now versus November*, so it's certainly possible for the Election Day turnout to surge above 20% and if so the final result could be closer than what you see above. I don't think the ED crowd is going to go tooooo crazy though... everyone's aware of November's Election Day and employers encourage people to take long lunch breaks and vote, it's a national tradition. Today's just a random Tuesday in January, I think if you were super fired up to do your patriotic duty you'd be more likely to have already stood in line and voted sometime last month.

Alright so there you have it; take this Ng Deep Dive for what you will. If anyone's trying to place a bet on the result or win a guessing competition, I'd recommend picking Warnock to run slightly ahead of what you see listed above while Ossoff runs slightly behind (but still manages a win).

Good luck, America!
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* which would be completely ridiculous, by the way

Georgia Statewide Numbers as of November 3rd
1914 new COVID infections being reported per day
25 new COVID deaths being reported per day
1745 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms

Georgia Statewide Numbers as of Today
8305 new COVID infections being reported per day
37 new COVID deaths being reported per day
5514 patients hospitalized with COVID symptoms
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Spreadsheet in case anyone would like a closer look at the numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTMEI1vn58ET9WOWPUg2tOFnOOsQZFCqRvOvx68CpOs/edit?usp=sharing


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22
Shu
Tutar
Jin
Gravedigger

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What, how did we not decide this three years ago?

Regardless, yes, though he's certainly off-putting much of the time (by design).


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Robyn
Barley
Woman
Lev
Gravedigger

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redrocket posted...

if you were one of the cool kids back in 2009-2010 you could mod your graphics card to literally print money and now if you held onto it you are a jazillionaire.

Verified.

I was thinking 2020 would be a big year for crypto but THIS I never would have expected! Got to imagine the market has now peaked, but then again I've been saying that every week for the last two months.


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Telephone - Lady Gaga & Beyonce
Weird Al - Phony Calls (Don't Go Makin)


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Watch Soul before midnight!

EDIT - Okay, checked and I've seen 27 movies released in 2020 so far. That's down a bit (saw 44 from 2019), but not as low as I expected.


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Yes, but he's in trouble against Godzilla this Summer.


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Jade Urtebise

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Even as someone who was strongly against HA2 being in the field, I have to admit I'm amazed it's not only lasted this long but also not dragged HA1 down by splitting the vote.


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Yes, she speaks for all of us.


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The Main Drag - A Jagged Gorgeous Winter
RHCP - Snow


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Watched on HBO just now, it was pretty okay but not on the level of the first film (and even that one wasn't on my top tier of superhero films).


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Green Day - Wake Me Up When September Ends

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Never been so proud of B8 in my life!


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A triple bye for the worst option ever, oh the humanity!


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Great decision, let's let the people have their say!


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hashtag JusticeForElf

(actually I don't even like it that much, but it deserves a shot)


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ham

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jcgamer107 posted...

....and Elf, and The Grinch (live-action) ?

YIKES, I'm with you in the first half but get outa here with that live action Grinch noise!


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Fantastic subject matter, but Home Alone 2 and Jingle is just too much!

I do like the Muppet Christmas Carol bye however.

guffguy89 posted...

Im surprised Elf isnt on this list though. Isn't that the consensus top Christmas movie of this millenium?

You are correct.


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Rihanna - Shut Up And Drive
Cake - The Distance


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It's a stacked field, I'd be fine with extending the list and including some byes.


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REMINDER

Best Christmas Movie/Special
A Charlie Brown Christmas
Scrooged
Die Hard
Home Alone
How the Grinch Stole Christmas (1966)
A Christmas Story
Elf
Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer
National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation
It's A Wonderful Life

Or swap any of the above for:
The Santa Clause
Miracle on 34th Street


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It was always Washington in this household, never heard Columbus in my life.


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Taylor Swift - Shake It Off

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Yes, he's the glue that holds the show together.


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Well there was almost no info in the trailer, but...

I still loved it! Hype city baby!


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I'm from Wisconsin so of course I have to pick

House of Pain - Jump Around

Then I'll go with

Third Eye Blind - Jumper


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I love the subject, but after this let's celebrate Christmas! Add this to your notepad

Best Christmas Movie/Special
A Charlie Brown Christmas
Scrooged
Die Hard
Home Alone
How the Grinch Stole Christmas (1966)
A Christmas Story
Elf
Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer
National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation
It's A Wonderful Life

Or swap any of the above for:
The Santa Clause
Miracle on 34th Street

Would be my suggestion.


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Yes in a BIG way, he was very influential in my becoming a 5 year old narc.


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Got 'em!

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A Flock of Seagulls - I Ran (So Far Away)
Iron Maiden - Run to the Hills

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What the HECK, it's been an hour and I still haven't seen the ExTha reaction!


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Yes, he's sweet and my go-to pick.


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https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Ngamer64's_Top_Ten_Matches_in_GameFAQs_Contest_History


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Fifth Harmony - Work from Home
The Offspring - Why Don't You Get A Job?


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Nailed it, thanks for the reminder!


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I'm cool with holding former champs out of the main bracket for this reason, but there was no justification for excluding BotW so I was fine with seeing it go crazy until the Finals.


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Phil Collins - You'll Be In My Heart

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Aquatic Ambience
Under The Sea by a singing crab

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*long, exasperated sigh*


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