Lurker > SmartMuffin

Anyway, it's usually a two to three week lag

What are you basing this on?

Bloomberg's own graph shows that this is not true. In the first wave, it was a 5-10 day lag. Not 2-3 weeks. In any case, it has already been over three weeks since cases started exponential growth, while deaths are still going down in most places.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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From the horrible Bloomberg piece: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-07/a-lower-covid-19-death-rate-is-nothing-to-celebrate



It's like they think we can't even read. Take a second and actually look at the graphs. In the first wave, cases reached their peak on April 10. Deaths then peaked on April 17- seven days later. Not two weeks. Not four weeks. Not eight weeks. SEVEN DAYS.

The "second wave" of rising cases started on June 13. Therefore, we would expect deaths to start rising in a similar proportion seven days later, on June 20. What were deaths doing on June 20? Trending down, at their lowest level since the spike, continuing to do so for another five days before a slight blip up (something weird with the statistics must have been going on there), which quickly corrected and then the downward trend continued.

This article, warning us that "deaths lag cases" was published on July 7 - a full 24 days away from when cases started skyrocketing. Deaths are still trending down.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Also there are tons of conflicting studies on masks, such that "science has proven masks work" and "science has proven masks make things worse" are both literally true statements. The correct position, from the beginning, that has not changed, is much closer to "masks probably don't do much to protect any given individual but even a small chance of a small benefit in terms of lowered transmission is enough to make it worth trying"

The main problem is that the media are really fucking stupid and attempt to politicize literally everything, so we flipped from "masks don't work and you're racist if you wear one" to "masks work perfectly and you're a mass murderer if you don't wear one" on a dime, because that's just what they do.

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They lied to us on purpose because we were considered expendable pawns and they needed to hoard a valuable resource for the elite class.

Then it turned out the disease wasn't nearly as bad as everyone thought so they backed down.

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https://twitter.com/QAnonNotables/status/1280507515093094400

Curious as to how many of you would unironically support doing this here.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Leonhart4 posted...

Anyway, my biggest problem with ME3's ending is not the usual complaint. I think I've only seen like one other person on B8 share this gripe with it.

I wanted an unequivocally happy ending for Shepard, not just some 1 second cut that maybe they survived if you picked Destroy and had enough points.

Strong disagree. The overwhelming message throughout the series is about the high cost of war. Shep getting a happy ending is absolutely off the table.

I voted 3 because it's not flawless, but I'm close to 4 because I do think it's about as good as they could possibly do, given the constraint of having to make it appear like you're giving the players a choice. Their only other option was to go full Last of Us and just force the player into making whatever decision they thought was best, which wouldn't work in a series that was all about moral choices and would have been shit all over even more than this was...

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Among the 10 states with fewer deaths per capita than Texas, the largest city in any of those states is Portland, OR. Texas has six cities larger than Portland. Two of the six are over 2x larger than Portland.

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Per Wikipedia, there are only 6 states in the US that have at least one city of over 1M residents. Here they are, along with their deaths per capita:

New York (1659)
California (163)
Illinois (571)
Arizona (249)
Texas (94)
Pennsylvania (532)

Among those states, you can easily see that Texas has far and away the best outcomes. It's not even close. But sure, keep insisting that Texas is the woefully mismanaged state with all the problems.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Texas has less than 1/4 as many "deaths per capita" as the US average.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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california has both way more inhabitants than texas and a way higher population density than texas so no shit they're getting hit harder.

On a PER CAPITA BASIS California has almost twice as many deaths as Texas.

Texas has the 39th most deaths per capita of all 50 US states (meaning 38 states are worse, many by multiple factors). Literally every state with fewer deaths per capita than Texas is very small and/or heavily rural.

Check the data yourself:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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First, MGSV is absolutely a better overall package than FFXV.

100% true, and I say that as someone who generally loves FF and hates MGS.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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The issue isn't linear vs open world. Almost every FF has had both. The issue is the order in which you experience them. Almost every game (FF or otherwise) starts you off very linear, slowly builds you up giving you access to increasingly cool, fun, and powerful abilities, items, allies, options, etc. Then opens up the world and allows you to customize your characters and experience the world at your own pace and direction.

XV does almost the exact opposite. It starts you off in an open world with cool allies and abilities and lots of stuff to do. Then it proceeds to take it all away from you, until you're left in the "final dungeon" literally navigating a maze of empty rooms where literally all you can do is run away from monsters while you wait for your "press A to kill bad buy" ability to recharge.

It's just colossally stupid, but I suppose it does scratch some sort of hipster "haha we're going to flip convention on its head" art-house nonsense itch, so it's no surprise foolmo is defending it. If you think that games should actually be fun and enjoyable to play, giving you a sense of reward and progression, you will hate this thing. If you think they are high art whose job is to challenge your perceptions or whatever then maybe it's halfway decent?

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https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1280374566280445952

well holy fucking shit, look who finally found some balls

I swear this is the FIRST time I've seen him defend himself and his state against an attack from the left. Maybe his dumb ass has finally figured out that CNN is NOT his friend and is not giving him advice that is in his best interest...

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And, like the vast majority of people, she is completely asymptomatic and would have never even known she had it if she wasn't an elite with privileged access to testing.

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https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1280254674449436672

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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And that, ExTha, is why I don't talk much about my personal life anymore.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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You literally said you were only having it because her parents already paid and you felt obligated to make sure their money was well spent.

That is NOT what I said. And it doesn't even make the slightest amount of common sense. Why would we have set it all up in the first place and asked her parents to pay for it if we didn't want it?

The point was that given everything that had happened, including the constant stress and uncertainty of having to go through months of not knowing if it would be cancelled or not, then officially having it cancelled by government order, we were ready to just be done with it and go elope, but reconsidered because we wanted to be good stewards of her parents financial resources.

That's not the same thing as saying we "never wanted it." We absolutely wanted it. It was going to be great. All of my family was going to come in from out of state. That's all gone now. What we will now have in exchange will be a pale imitation of what was originally all planned. If that. It seems somewhat likely that Abbott is going to put his pussy-hat on and order a brand new shutdown any day now. So our second rescheduled date might get cancelled again. In which case the few guests and wedding party members who have stuck with us will probably cancel out as well and we'll be left with our parents standing in our kitchen. But I guess I'm a horrible person for being upset about that huh? I guess if that happened to you, you'd just smile and nod and say "WELL IF IT SAVES JUST ONE LIFE" right?

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Also why the fuck do you have all of my posts on file? This was creepy back when Ulti did it in 2013 and is even more pathetic now. Normal people we encounter in day to day life are quite sympathetic to us for having to go through all of this. It's only on b8 that I'm met with open mockery for daring to feel bad about having our dream wedding derailed because of a government and media driven freakout over basically nothing.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Your interpretation of those comments is radically and wildly dishonest. The quotes do not match your description at all.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Nearly all of that is a lie.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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So spill the fucking details Smuffin, politics topic or not. How in the blue hell did you get a wife.

Got lucky I guess, I dunno. I think it's true that once you hit 30 (and once the women do too) then being a responsible guy with a good job and no criminal record, kids, or face tattoos all of a sudden starts mattering a lot more than it ever did when you were young and sexless.

b8 even tried to convince me to dump her one time and I totally tried to do it but she didn't let me off the hook easy so I kept trying and here we are.

In any case, whenever I talk about my personal life people literally mock me and try and make me feel like shit about it for years, mostly making up lies (like SEP did above), so why should I want to share, exactly?

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ExThaNemesis posted...

It may not be a threat to young healthy people but young healthy people often have older and at risk family members, SMuffin

Then they should probably stay away from them, until they've already gotten and recovered from COVID, which will probably happen before thanksgiving break.

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Kenri posted...

god i wish i lived in your dipshit fantasy realm

look up a few statistics and you can!

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TheRock1525 posted...

Yes because the only people at schools are young ones.

If the older professors are too scared, they should retire. Thanks to the PHD glut there will instantly be 500+ qualified candidates ready, willing, and able to replace them.

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Was just gonna post that myself.

LOL fuckin #MAGA.

If the schools don't like that, maybe they should grow some balls and reopen. COVID is no threat to healthy young people.

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is the plot as poorly paced/explained as ff13

about 10x worse, actually

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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If that's the case Trump wins.

No, because we would have gotten it quicker and with less disruption without lockdowns.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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also, no way covid isn't still going to be a huge deal in the US in four months (which is what REALLY matters).

The US is going to achieve functional herd immunity within the next 60 days.

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I know Muffin is all in on "Trump is going to get blown out because he isn't racist enough" train but there's just like no real path to 400 for Biden without Texas + Georgia + Everything considered remotely competitive (So IA, OH, FL, etc.) and even then you just skate past the line at 413.

Yes, I do in fact think Biden carries all of those, easily.

Trump will be competitive in like AK, ND, SD, WY, ID, AL, MS, KY only. I think he'll win about half of those. And nothing else.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Imagine if its a super narrow EC win in either direction this year and it comes down to faithless electors

It won't be. "Biden by 280+" is literally the leading money candidate in prediction markets right now.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election

And yes, I have a small amount of money on it. I'd bet "Biden by 400+" if they'd let me!

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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I hope people can understand that when people call to abolish it, it isn't just to help Democrats

This really has nothing to do with typical arguments about the merits of the electoral college, like, at all.

IIRC, in 2016, despite all the media openly calling on electors to defect... only one did, a far-left native-American activist who was pledged to Hillary but didn't vote for her

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

So if someone were to hack into the zoom classroom or hijack the feed they could receive a free harvard education, yes?

You can already do that by just showing up in the lecture halls. Nobody will kick you out.

What Harvard charges for isn't the education, it's the official endorsement of having been sorted into a high-IQ cohort.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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It's because their government actually reacted immediately and shut down transportation going in and out of their country.

Isolationism does seem to work, so long as you're willing to commit to doing it indefinitely.

Of course the disease isn't nearly deadly enough to make "no more international travel" look like an acceptable cost.

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I hope every university does this. Let the whole system go to shit and collapse under its own excess.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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If the explanation is poverty, why are so many nations that are abysmally and shockingly poor, compared to the US, doing so much better?

India's numbers are a couple orders of magnitude better than ours. Is it because they have better living conditions? Less poverty? Better jobs? More working from home?

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https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1280173292100321280

Every right-winger can cross "destroy the higher education system" off their to-do list. They just destroyed themselves.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1279862637510242305

Funny how when it comes to countries, everyone just uncritically accepts that the only reason the US might be having more cases than other countries is horrible management and a selfish populace who is too stupid and selfish to take basic precautions. No other explanation is possible.

Wonder if that logic applies here?

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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https://twitter.com/johnpaulpagano/status/1279840397548814339

Hey I remember these guys! They were the ones shouting racial slurs in their brief cameo in the Covington Catholic video!

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https://twitter.com/AGHamilton29/status/1279925673805701120

The most hilarious thing on Twitter right now is all the midwit losers, the establishment dems, the above-it-all centrists, and the neocon cowards, acting shocked and outraged that maybe the violent, racist, communist revolutionary thugs aren't actually upset at Robert E. Lee's support of slavery and maybe they really do just hate America and want to show off their power.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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The virus is already under control. It has been for months.

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1279910825386532868

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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But that's no big deal right?

People's livelihoods are being destroyed, but anyone who cares is just some sort of selfish idiot!

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Corrik7 posted...

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/oakland-zoo-at-risk-of-closing-for-good-due-to-covid-19-pandemic/

Oakland Zoo might have to close permanently because they haven't been allowed to open.

All of the housewives who favor lockdowns should be conscripted to personally execute the cute zoo animals. It's worth it, right?

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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No one is going to stand up for the individual that committed the crime, but we're not going to demonize everyone else for it.

Do you feel the same way about Charlottesville?

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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Probably because when a criminal kills someone, it's tragic but we expect criminals to commit crimes.

So you agree that BLM protesters are criminals?

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SmartMuffin posted...

https://www.cbs46.com/news/8-year-old-dies-during-night-of-violence-in-atlanta/article_3de6674c-be41-11ea-8e33-2b7eacb8bee8.html

more highlights from the mostly peaceful protests

Seriously though, this is at least 10x more tragic than the death of George Floyd. It's more tragic in every possible way one might think of. And yet, nobody cares. At all. There will be no protests. No public funerals. No messages from corporations. Nothing. Just an innocent girl killed for no reason whatsoever.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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https://www.cbs46.com/news/8-year-old-dies-during-night-of-violence-in-atlanta/article_3de6674c-be41-11ea-8e33-2b7eacb8bee8.html

more highlights from the mostly peaceful protests

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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https://twitter.com/i/events/1279691093521489920

In other news, I have to believe this is the first time since the 1970s that the media is proudly displaying the photo of a white murder victim who was killed by a black man. Of course, the only way you'd ever know the killer was black is if you followed a bunch of far right social media accounts. The regular media refuses to acknowledge it.

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SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized - https://imgur.com/W66HUUy
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How did he do this though? He's still highly nationalist and says what "everyone's thinking". He even wished for a couple massacrings of Americans - the ultimate Trumper fantasy.

After a month of doing absolutely nothing while a literal communist revolution took over a part of a large American city.

Like I said, too little too late.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Just think of it as the White Tax

So, you agree with me that we are entering an era where white people will be treated, both legally and culturally, as officially second-class citizens?

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Jakyl25 posted...

Is that functionally different than cops approaching your car armed and extorting you with a ticket?

Not if you think "being white" is a criminal offense. Cops at least have to claim you've broken a law, laws which are created by folks at least claiming that they are necessary for public safety...

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