Lurker > red sox 777

LordoftheMorons posted...

The founders were well known for their preference for a completely unchecked leader able to advance his own interests at the expense of the country's!

They put checks on him in the House and Senate. That's why the Senate will acquit him, and with a majority no less.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Every American must fear what Trump has done. If he can do it, so can President Warren/Sanders

That's good, and that's exactly why Trump was elected. President Trump, or President Warren/Sanders, can and should overturn the centrist order that has so corroded our politics for decades.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Quick summary thread of the House Intel impeachment report:
https://twitter.com/neal_katyal/status/1201972605730926592

Supreme Court lawyer;law professor;extremist centrist. Former US Acting Solicitor General. All views mine,no one else's

No wonder he doesn't like Trump!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Anyway, more about Harris sucking. Does anyone legitimately think her record makes her a "rising star" in the Democratic Party? Do you really think she is better off politically now than a year ago?

They have no rising stars. They are a moribund party clinging to their outdated ideas about bipartisanship and public service. A party that refuses to listen to a word the poor have to say while insisting that they represent them.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Sounds like highly illegal leaking happened.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I mean, the USA incarcerates its own citizens at the highest rate in the world. Worse than authoritarian regimes like North Korea and Saudi Arabia. Is it any surprise that we lock up illegal immigrants?

I suppose a PR campaign across Latin America describing how life in the US really is - including being locked in a cage - might be even better than a wall.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

I hope we will see less career prosecutors running for high office. Never understood why people kept voting for people whose whole careers are about locking people in cages.

Glad to hear you'll be voting against Trump in 2020!

That started before Trump. And it wouldn't be necessary if we had an effective wall.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I hope we will see less career prosecutors running for high office. Never understood why people kept voting for people whose whole careers are about locking people in cages.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

FDR was probably the worst president ever. He created the modern federal government with all its bureaucracy and "career public servants."
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Also I am going to laugh if Tulsi makes the debate stage and thus very officially lasted longer than Harris.

Easier to stay in when you're not running to win and have no actual political future to risk!

What do you mean? She's going to be the Republican nominee in 2024. I don't think the country will stomach going directly from father to daughter, so we'll need a non-Trump to run in 2024.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Warren's ideas are blatantly unconstitutional though and complete nonstarters with Republicans though, so they won't get passed. And the feeling I get is that she genuinely supports the proletariat more than the bourgeoisie (despite having been in a bourgeois environment for decades). So the rich will not be harmed, the country will not be harmed, and the proletariat will not be harmed.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Harris out!

Only 1 more truly terrifying wannabe authoritarian left in the Democrat field

You mean Warren?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

xp1337 posted...

kevwaffles posted...

Most everything they've done that isn't foreign policy related can be fixed virtually instantly by another administration.

Yes and no.

For some things, even if another administration can fix them, the precedent set that you can just get away with doing things the way this administration has is damaging itself. Like I noted in the Press Secretary blurb, yeah, in theory this could be fixed with a new administration that simply holds press conferences and tells the truth. But the precedent that you can do this with no consequences is pretty chilling for the future when someone more competent tries it.

But for others I'd disagree straight-up. Take Tillerson's hollowing out of the State Department and this would also apply to other agencies where career public servants are being pushed out (I forget which one did this, but there was a story where they didn't explicitly fire anyone, but moved the office like 1500 miles away and were quoted as the natural consequence of many quitting because they can't just upend their family on a dime like that was seen as a goal of the move) is that you not only lose their experience in the moment, but they're people who have to move on with their lives and find other jobs and whatnot so you can't necessarily expect to be able to go, "Hey guys, we have sane management again, come on back!" and refill that void that was created. That damage will persist.

Though yes, there certainly are things were the damage can be reversed fairly completely and fairly quickly simply with a new President - some Executive Orders, for instance.

This is why Trump has been remarkably successful on delivering on his central campaign promise of draining the swamp. Of course the swamp doesn't see itself as the swamp, which is why all previous presidents failed in this area. Forcing out career government employees is precisely the point.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Dancedreamer posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

You can see a literal video of him attempting to use his position for a political advantage.

538: Yes, there is video, but Democrats lack proof that Donald Trump is actually Donald Trump in that video and not a Shapeshifter.

Or Trump was just performing a sketch of what Hillary would be doing in his position!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Really though, what the voters are looking for is not more evidence against Trump. What they want is contrition from liberals. Genuine contrition.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

You gotta bring in the people who know the swamp best if you want to drain the swamp! It's like Darth Sidious said....."once more the Sith shall rule the galaxy.....and we shall have peace."
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

You know, Trump is right that George Conway is only going to be remembered in history as Kellyanne's husband.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

There's this tendency among liberals to deny reality when they are faced with it, and to shoot the messenger. When 538 says there isn't a smoking gun, that is of course their opinion but it is an honest opinion, from one of the most objective and unbiased sources.

You can think something is a smoking gun all you want, but if the jury doesn't think so, then it isn't!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1201496872105467904?s=21

God 538s opinions stink

They're right. There is no smoking gun. At this point Trump could testify at his trial in the Senate and admit every allegation down to the last detail and it would not be enough to convince either the Senate or the public that he was guilty. Not only does a smoking gun not exist in our universe, no smoking gun could conceivably exist.

And why is this the case? Because the American People are absolutely entitled to their choice of President. They can choose a criminal if they want to. Just like prior to the FTPA 2011, the Queen was entitled as a matter of law to fire the Prime Minister and choose whomsoever she liked to be PM, or not to have one at all. It was just an unwritten convention that she had to pick someone who could command the support of a majority of the Commons; by law she could have dismissed Parliament altogether, refused to call new elections, and governed from the throne. Because that is what a sovereign can do.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Read this if you want to make your blood boil:
https://twitter.com/susan_hennessey/status/1201330337386815489?s=21
Wonder how many people lives Trump has upended in trying to find scapegoats to excuse his crimes.

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. In the USA you may not die but you will still suffer the consequences of your defeat.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

Found not guilty* (not the same thing as found innocent)

From my understanding, the entire case was completely derailed because the medic told prosecutors he could corroborate all the awful shit the guy did in exchange for immunity, then got on the stand and specifically contradicted one unexpected detail which made it legally hard to convict.

The medic said something like Yeah, Gallagher stabbed him in the chest, but I determined thats not what killed him.

So because Prosecutors spent time making the case Gallagher stabbed this guy to death, this one change in details really hurt it.

Anyone saying Gallagher is innocent because of this, when literally his entire unit of decorated Seals said he was a monster is being ridiculous.

If the prosecution based their whole case on the word of one witness and then that witness said he's innocent.......I don't see how any reasonable jury could possibly convict on those facts.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

Innocent until proven guilty is untenable anyway

In many cases, if you presume innocence on charges like rape, then youre implying that the accusers are lying until its proven they arent.

Which is in and of itself a crime, so you have to consider THEM innocent of lying, which would mean the accused rapist would have to be guilty

That's why we don't have private prosecutions anymore. The accuser is the sovereign, which (1) has no personal knowledge, and therefore cannot be lying under oath, and (2) is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution anyway.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

So.....time for Congress to officially transfer the presidential residence to Mar a Lago?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

President Abraham Lincoln narrowly won round 1. Now he goes up against 4 heads of state from before the revolution. Who was the best American head of state?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Vote away!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

But yeah, this thing about throwing out all context and judging everyone else by your own beliefs is ridiculous. Like completely and utterly insane. As bad as the worst fundamentalists.

#ThisIsWhyYouLost
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

So can we acknowledge the reality that abolition was a minority position in the US in 1860 and if Lincoln had gone for that he would have lost the border states, lost the war, and completely failed to stop slavery, in addition to losing the Union.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

kevwaffles posted...

Corrik7 posted...

kevwaffles posted...

See, that's what I mean when I say it's not actually true. All he wrote in his memoirs anywhere close to that effect is what I mentioned about them not being able to adapt to society, but somehow it gets stretched into that.

Pretty sure he said they weren't as smart as whites or had smaller brains or some shit also. I remember we did a big debate section on this in African American History in college.

My professor was less than amused with me because he created two sides of debate where 1. Was Lincoln was racist and only did what he did because he had to for the union or 2. Lincoln was a good person and freed the slaves because he felt slavery was wrong.

I was on side 2 but my professor got mad at me when I argued that Lincoln was actually racist but it did not preclude that he was a good person and freed the slaves because he felt slavery was wrong either and he in fact did do.

There is contradictory reporting about whether he supported or opposed "negro citizenship" in Illinois in his debates with Douglass in 1858 (written later when he was running for president). In these, there is a line attributing "physical differences" as the reason why blacks and whites can't live together. Whether or not he wrote much less delivered speeches with such content, it does seem to actually contradict what his own memoirs on these subjects. That doesn't disqualify them as things he ever said for the purpose of getting elected, but it is 2nd hand versus 1st hand sources.

But even in those, I don't think these speeches ever clearly indicated a difference in intelligence or brain size.

However, it does strike me as odd he would say such things for the purpose of getting elected in Illinois, but not for the purpose of getting elected president only 2 years later.

Hillary explained this: with some people he used some arguments, and with other people he used other arguments.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

SmartMuffin posted...

and just as a bonus, his pre-political background was so incredibly corrupt it makes Trump look like a choir boy

he was literally a lawyer for the giant railroads, probably the biggest crony capitalist enterprises in all of American history

got incredibly rich through land speculation that surely had absolutely nothing to do with being an insider for the giant monopoly corporations of his day

Sorry, but insider trading was perfectly legal back then. Blame Congress for not banning it for like 70 years after that.

Also, it's a testament to America that the giant railroads would hire a lawyer who never got past 2nd grade in school and taught himself law. Wouldn't happen nowadays!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Trump is obviously not a racist. He treats everyone equally.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Nelson_Mandela posted...

For those who kept arguing with me that "anyone on US soil is afforded constitutional rights":

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-invokes-patriot-act-to-detain-palestinian-adham-amin-hassoun-forever

Nope. Not until the supreme court says otherwise about this case.

I will accept a well written apology.

This looks like a terrible decision by the government and I hope the courts reverse them.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

No votes for either of the two prime ministers' deals so far. Looks like the UK should hire Donald Trump to negotiate a deal, and if that doesn't work out, leave with no deal!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

What should the UK do?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Ashethan posted...

red sox 777 posted...

No, because if Hunter or more importantly, Joe, is guilty then there was nothing wrong with Trump's actions at all. Just one president helping out another president with their duty of enforcing the law.

This may be the wrongest you've ever been. And that's really saying something.

You're not really saying anything if you don't say why.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

Well sure Trump will attack Biden over it, just like hed attack Warren or Bernie for being socialists or Buttigieg for whatever the fuck he decides on, but he would have attacked Biden for something else in the absence of this. The question is whether its a more effective than replacement level attack, and I dont think it is (while Hunter serving on the board isnt great, hes not the candidate, and Trumps own conduct in trying to dig up the dirt is way worse than even the worst case scenario hes trying to imply with the Bidens). The thing that really catapulted the emails as an effective attack was that the media latched onto them and kept hammering them over and over and over again (because Clinton shouldnt have done it and they needed a false balance with negative coverage of Trump). Because members of the media understand that Trumps actions in trying to weaponize this attack is a much larger scandal, theyre unlikely to catalyze the Hunter attack in the same way they did with the emails.

No, because if Hunter or more importantly, Joe, is guilty then there was nothing wrong with Trump's actions at all. Just one president helping out another president with their duty of enforcing the law.

What made the emails thing so bad was the HRC never came clean about them. She kept hiding, obstructing, minimizing....
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Also that fake school was started by the Obama administration. He really was big on deportation!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

What the fuck
https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1199819140669857793

How on earth is that not entrapment? I hope at least one of the defendants refuses to plead guilty and appeals this. The only people committing crimes here are the ones who set up a fake university. And apparently charging for it too!
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Id love to be wrong, but if were agreeing that polling showing Biden is leading means hes going to win the Primary, then we should also take the polls showing Biden/Trump is a near toss-up just as seriously.

Biden does better in head-to-heads than any of the other candidates! Nationally polls tend to have him up ~10 points against Trump, and then the NYT swing state polls had him up I think by 2 on average in those states (though those polls are much better for Trump overall than most general election polls).

Which swing states are included in that?
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Nelson_Mandela posted...

@bernie stans:

When Biden is inevitably the nominee for president, would you want to see Bernie run third party if it's looking like Trump will beat Biden 1 on 1?

No, the Democrats won't learn their lesson that way. They will harp on for decades about how their win was taken away by a spoiler. It's got to be Trump and after him Republicans the liberals find outrageous until they repent.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

xp1337 posted...

Had Clinton won the 2008 primary she would have crushed too. It's actually an intriguing what-if alternate universe since presumably you could have had a Candidate Obama in 2016. (Clinton could well lose to Romney in 2012 assuming similar conditions to Obama's 2012)

This probably is the better timeline! Even if Clinton does lose in alt 2012, Clinton-Romney-Obama is vastly preferable to Obama-Obama-Trump.

Obama > Clinton
Obama = Romney
Trump > Obama

So it looks like this timeline has 1 equal presidency and 2 unambiguously worse ones.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Obama doesn't want Biden or Sanders to win? So.....he might as well just endorse Warren then.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Corrik7 posted...

red sox 777 posted...

I would be interested in some polling that excises California, New York, and DC from the sample. It could be that the Democrats are only doing decently in the national polls at all because they are running up the numbers in these places even more than usual.

Well, if not for the African-American vote of Philadelphia, Republicans would carry PA every year. So, that's an important bastion for Dems.

I think what sets CA and NY apart is not so much that they are diverse places, but that the white vote in them is so strongly blue. And indeed - Manhattan and San Francisco are probably the two whitest densely populated cities in the country.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1199132418566971394?s=21

Of course he does. Party of law and order!

The law says that they are pardoned. That means they have been restored to the status of innocent persons. And indeed, innocent people could still be prosecuted, but pardoned people can never again be prosecuted for these same crimes. Completely and totally exonerated.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

I would be interested in some polling that excises California, New York, and DC from the sample. It could be that the Democrats are only doing decently in the national polls at all because they are running up the numbers in these places even more than usual.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Also from the Emerson poll, Trump has 38% approval with Hispanic voters. Mittens got 27% on election day.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

Jakyl25 posted...

red sox 777 posted...

The last polls I saw on this issue had Trump in the 15-20 area shortly after Kanye announced his support. I'm not aware of recent polling in the single digits but would be happy to look at the polls if someone wants to find them.

I cant vouch that these are accurate but I cant vouch that the other ones the dude on Twitter cited are either so *shrug*

https://twitter.com/brand_allen/status/1199105012552609798?s=21

Probably there's a lot of issues with question wording and stuff like that if there's that big a spread. But if it ends up around 15%, that's pretty good for Trump.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

The last polls I saw on this issue had Trump in the 15-20 area shortly after Kanye announced his support. I'm not aware of recent polling in the single digits but would be happy to look at the polls if someone wants to find them.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

FWIW, I found a poll from 2005 that had black support for GWB at 16%. So double what he actually got at the polls. But 17% at the polls is probably still game over-ish.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

If there really was a surge in support for Trump solely among black people, there would almost certainly be an actual concrete action that caused that surge (of which I can certainly think of none). But theres a much simpler explanation: statistical noise.

The Emerson poll sampled 153 black voters. That seems big enough to distinguish 8% from 35%.

I ran the numbers with an online margin of error calculator, which shows 99.99% confidence that the actual value is within +/- 15% of the polling number. Even at 20% black support, that is basically game over.

Also, Trump has actually and consistently tried to reach out to black voters for years. He doubled Mitt's number at the 2016 election. Since then he's achieved a lot of results with the economy and has never talked down to his supporters.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!

LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Are those reliable? I think that is pretty much game over if they are.

Very obviously no

Trumps overall approval rating is extremely steady. He is not simultaneously gaining slightly losing ground with white people and tripling or quadrupling his support among black people (errors for subpopulations are huge; remember that sampling error goes down like 1/sqrt(N) for a poll of N people).

Why would that not be a possibility? Based on my observations and internal modeling that is exactly what I would expect to happen. White support declines from pearl clutching moderates/conservatives voicing their disapproval of his lack of civility and disrespect for tradition. But I would argue the white number is not as significant because most of those people will ultimately vote Republican because they have no other options. They may disapprove of Trump and vote for him anyway.

So, question time. What was GWB's approval rating among black voters? Was it substantially higher than the 8% or so he got at the polls? If he was also getting around 30% approval and that translated into the same old 8% at the polls it doesn't mean much. But if not.....

Also, I looked at that Emerson poll and Trump is even or ahead of all of the Dems except Bernie, and he's only losing to Bernie by 1 point. Hillary beat Trump by 2 points and lost with some room to spare (she needed to win by almost 3 points to win the EC). If the country is more polarized now than in 2016 it's entirely possible the Dem may need to win the popular vote by as much as 4 points to win the EC this time.
---

September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!