62. Link vs. Ganondorf (2004) R2
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/6/63ac757a.jpg
Link 87.9% 77295
Ganondorf 12.1% 10640
TOTAL VOTES 87935
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/(1)Link_vs_(8)Ganondorf_2004
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1750-hyrule-division-round-2-link-vs-ganondorf
Ill start this writeup with a quote I remember from the days leading up to this match. Ive forgotten the user, but the understatement of the contest has been stuck in my head for 20 years:
I dont know. On one hand, Ganondorfs pretty cool, but on the other hand, whos gonna vote for Ganondorf over *Link*?
Any contest analysis nowadays will be littered with a list of abbreviations and jargon that is almost indecipherable to any outsider. LFF, TJF, and of course, SFF or Same Fanbase Factor, the grandaddy of all outside factors that can affect the results of a match. What has kind of been lost to history over the years however, is just how contested the concept originally was. It might seem obvious or commonplace nowadays, when even the best designed brackets have two or three obvious SFF fests, but there was legitimate debate at one point about, if not the existence, the extent to which SFF could really affect a match. There was a school of thought, supercharged by the appearance of the X-Stats after Summer 2003, that each characters popularity was a concrete thing. A mathematical value. Just plug these values into a formula, and you could get the result of a match. These values would waver somewhat from year to year, and obviously if a character had a new game, but, in theory, if you knew the values of two characters you could figure out the result of a match between them. If a character was supposed to get 33% on Link, they would get 33% on Link. There wasnt anything else that had to be taken into account, either regarding the match itself, or the relation between the two characters.
Enter Same Fanbase Factor, a fairly simple complication to this idea. If two characters had the same fanbase, their popularities would overlap, and the more popular character would overperform, sometimes dramatically. It might surprise people who arrived to the scene post-2004, but this was not readily accepted. Voters arent as fickle as that, the reasoning went. If a character had a certain strength, that was their strength, end of story. Maybe SFF could alter results by a couple percentage points, but thats it. And honestly, prior to 2004 there werent a lot of counterexamples to push back against this idea. Mario/DK in 2002 was the big one, but that was generally dismissed as a fluke due to their two histories being so intertwined with the legacy of gaming. Crono/Kefka was another match that got pointed to, but to the SFF doubters that wasnt even worthy of debate. Theyre not even from the same game!
And then 2004 arrived. First there was the Spring Contest, which saw a series of seemingly undeniable SFF beatdowns (LttP/SM, SM64/OoT). This did soften opinion towards SFF a great deal, but there were still some people that either ignored those results, or tried arguing that SFF only existed for games, and not for characters. The argument over SFF would come to a head with a seemingly contest size experiment several months later. Starting in Round 2, there would be SFF setup after SFF setup. The extent to which SFF existed would certainly be known by the time the contest was over. However, as it turned out, it didnt take that long. It only took the first match of Round 2. Link was expected to overperform on Ganondorf by around 5-7%, but in the end he would exceed even the wildest expectations of the SFF evangelists. Not only would he overperform on Ganondorf, he would do so by over 20%, taking Ganondorf below even the numbers that had been put up by CATS. Not only was this the second match in a row where Link had proved he had come to take back his crown, this is the match that would prove the existence of SFF beyond any reasonable doubt, and showed just how elastic the popularities of contest entrants could be.