changmas posted...
My affectionate friend,
Thanks for your kind note. On the nature of our esteemed guest Han, I believe that he has found himself somewhat distracted by the musings of the gentleman Lopen and by SBell prior to his lynch in the town square. Beyond that, I am feeling quite certain that he is aligned with town. I think this letter of his sounds fairly plausible:
I see three possible scenarios for what transpired with BCT, most of which have been proposed at various times by multiple individuals.
1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the resutls.
Han himself spent at least 50 gold on the trap as well, and he could be either of these simplified scenarios:
1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
And while Han could be devious no doubt, I think that first scenario sounds more realistic to me. OH WAIT - it would actually be incredibly, incredibly stupid of Scum Han to buy and set the trap because it would erase ALL plausible deniability if a day cop did exist and did scan him. He would have to prove that it's the other trap (the 100 gold one) by locking someone's vote on him. Because if he scanned guilty with his trap intact, he couldn't possibly have been Pot of Greeded, and therefore it would be a correct scan.
So then you're into arguing that Scum Han has to be godfather and that's just way less likely than him being town. So yeah, he's gotta be town or godfather to buy and set that trap.
Ahem, let me return to the formal style of my letter. I hope that your seeing the wheels turn in my thought process will make up for the callous and casual style with which I have written above. I trust you will find this information as eye-opening and fascinating as I did.
Sincerely yours,
Changmas
I didn't reply straight away because wrapping my head around the item play has not been conducive to me getting actual work done today.
But fuck, man. After i slowed down and read through your notes here, you explained this really well. Far better than han did. Thank you.
I'm feeling a lot better about chang now. So that means that of the sbell lynch, i feel that the following players are likely town:
That leaves bct, poppy, ctes, and hb. I'm not interested in pushing bct's buttons at all any more, but I agree with sultan (and sbell!) that bct should definitely not be taken as confirmed town.
I've laid my case on hb and have backed off only because he is claimed power and i suspect that he and ctes will be resolved by night actions of some sort tomorrow.
That leaves us with poppy, who i felt extremely good about on day 1 but is a big question mark for me today.
What happened, poppy? Without corrik to bounce off of, you're a little bit lost?