Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 444: Panic! At the Ballot

(+) Yeah! (+)

everyone scream etc

UltimaterializerX posted...

Yes insult people on your side, great plan.

Oh we are beyond fucked.

You're more in tune with Israel than I'll ever be, but I do have a few friends there. They've more or less told me Trump's policies emboldened Hamas. Is that accurate?

Trump's relations with Israel have always been hard to quantify because he and Netanyahu are openly friends, even though Trump doesn't care about the country itself.

Moonroof posted... Crypto currently skyrocketing based on thoughts Trump is going to win.

While I actually like some crypto, it's not a good sign for it. Read the white paper etc.

Looks like Ultimaterializer beat me to the block.

I just feel like the US is incapable of electing a female president. These neanderthals just don't have it in their nature.

I so dread my job in the morning. I don't openly discuss politics, except with like-minded people anyway. But I have a long tenure and everyone is well aware of my stances, and it's the sort of place that will openly mock and chide... and I do not know if I can handle it. My body is already starting to tremble at the thought of going into work in the morning.

GA seems out of reach for Harris unless there's something I'm missing. Too much of the vote already in.

NC seems likely to go to Trump, but I think there's at least a pathway with lots of outstanding votes from Charlotte. (As I was typing this up Charlotte now has most of its votes in and that might be the nail in the coffin)

PA seems close but I don't know about panicking yet. Philadelphia area has a lot of counties at low reporting % and there's also Erie County.

WI I don't have a clue so basically same as usual.

AZ also seems close

Reminder that there's still a clear pathway to a Harris win without GA/NC, though does require picking up the rest.

v_charon posted...

I just feel like the US is incapable of electing a female president. These neanderthals just don't have it in their nature.

One of the reasons I've been confident in a Trump win the entire time, yes.

I really hope this isn't turning into a 2016 repeat...

UltimaterializerX posted...

270 to win has called more states, Trump is at 242 now.

Which is whatever, but someone needs to explain wtf that poll in Iowa was. I had real hope after that thing came out.

Wishful thinking likely. Every other poll was nowhere near it.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Do we think Biden wins instead?

No, but Biden holding on for so long sabotaged her and made it even worse.

Meow1000 posted...

One of the reasons I've been confident in a Trump win the entire time, yes.

It's one of the reasons I was so defensive of Biden, much to the annoyance of people in this topic at the time. It's nothing against Kamala, and I personally think it's a good fit. But I feared a woman's chance in this country. I just don't think people will ever be ready.

Exit polls showing like double the black and Latino support for Trump in some states is wild.

Corrik7 posted...

Exit polls showing like double the black and Latino support for Trump in some states is wild.

It's kind of amazing how he can be so openly racist yet still get the minority votes so well

this aint getting called tonight, i think

Where the fuck did Aura and Ushiromiya go?

Help someone give me hope, Im about to have a baby girl and I dont want her growing up in this hellscape. Fucking RFK in charge of health policies ahhhhhhhhhhhh

UltimaterializerX posted...

But her polling was almost to the letter for years. She's the one who said Trump was winning Iowa in 2016 first and she was mocked for it. I have no idea how someone that reputable gets it this wrong, even accounting for outlier results.

She is outside the margin of error too.

Bat178 posted...

I really hope this isn't turning into a 2016 repeat...

Trump's win already looked secure at this time of night in 2016. At very least this election is a lot closer.

ivysnow posted...

this aint getting called tonight, i think

Honestly, it should. She's getting murdered in every country in Pennsylvania compared to Biden. There's no path to victory without Pennsylvania.

I wonder if we're ever actually going to get the guy out of office this time.

Bat178 posted...

Where the fuck did Aura and Ushiromiya go?

They stopped posting because you people are dooming after it was repeatedly pointed out to you that you shouldn't freak out yet

Meow1000 posted...

Honestly, it should. She's getting murdered in every country in Pennsylvania compared to Biden. There's no path to victory without Pennsylvania.

I wonder if we're ever actually going to get the guy out of office this time.

He very likely will die in the next four years, looking at how his health is declining, but then we have Vance in charge...

Meow1000 posted...

Honestly, it should. She's getting murdered in every country in Pennsylvania compared to Biden. There's no path to victory without Pennsylvania.

I wonder if we're ever actually going to get the guy out of office this time.

Where are the Pennsylvania results coming from?

Yeah, it's starting to look not great. Victory isn't impossible yet but the 'ASV' hasn't shaped up as hoped. Kamala is underperforming in key demographics.

Oh wow ohio senate seat looks like it's gonna be a flip.

So is this all just down to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this point?

well, I have enough jrpgs to last me until the end of time I am pretty sure, on the positive.

kevwaffles posted...

So is this all just down to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this point?

And she's probably not winning either unless we see a drastic shift in numbers. Her numbers are 3-5% worse than Biden in almost every county.

Also in all this mess we overlooked that Allred didn't get close.

What was called on the other site, ulti?

I checked out on specifics when I was doomposting a few weeks ago and everyone got pissed (notably YoBlazer being a fellow pessimist).

Then I let myself fall for the hype from intelligent B8ers predicting a Kamala stomp and threw $500 away lol.

We are fucked.

Trump was crushing Biden in Pennsylvania at this time in 2020 - because the mail votes were massively massively in Biden's favor and hadn't gotten counted yet. I don't think PA has changed its rule against counting mail votes before election day so Trump needs to build a sizable lead with the remaining election day votes.

I do think he's going to win in PA but that one isn't that clear yet.

Trump wins, Senate flips, House stays red.

R trifecta.

But don't worry, we can take back the House and Senate in 2 years...FUCK!

v_charon posted...

It's one of the reasons I was so defensive of Biden, much to the annoyance of people in this topic at the time. It's nothing against Kamala, and I personally think it's a good fit. But I feared a woman's chance in this country. I just don't think people will ever be ready.

I mean, Biden looked like he was absolutely toasted after the debate. Do you really think he does better?

Seanchan posted...

Trump wins, Senate flips, House stays red.

R trifecta.

But don't worry, we can take back the House and Senate in 2 years...FUCK!

Dude has full immunity, even if they lost a majority he could just have a bunch of people assassinated and laugh.

Arizona is completely irrelevant at this point, right?

If Trump wins I just am going to shrug and give up on my country tbh. It's one of those things where, like, if this is what the people want I guess we just are terrible now.

The thing about the minority vote is that there is a decent chunk of minority men who hold somewhat conservative opinions when it comes to the topic of women in authority. You see this among some Latino groups, urban blacks, arab voters (who also are anti-voting because of the Gaza situation), etc. These people would vote Democrat in a heartbeat, but are hesitant to vote in a female leader due to their ingrained views on gender authority roles. With democrats getting so much of their vote gains from minorities, if even just a small chunk of those minority male voters jump ship and vote Trump or vote third party or what have you, that's a big blow.

red_sox_777 posted...

Trump was crushing Biden in Pennsylvania at this time in 2020 - because the mail votes were massively massively in Biden's favor and hadn't gotten counted yet. I don't think PA has changed its rule against counting mail votes before election day so Trump needs to build a sizable lead with the remaining election day votes.

I do think he's going to win in PA but that one isn't that clear yet.

They said the early vote was counted and dumped at the start. Specifically that 100k Philadelphia ones would start it off.

Feels like this one is kinda over

Well I hope my spy puts print

Most jarring statistic I've seen is that Kamala is underperforming with women voters as well.

SirChris posted...

If Trump wins I just am going to shrug and give up on my country tbh. It's one of those things where, like, if this is what the people want I guess we just are terrible now.

^

I'm stress vomiting now...

kevwaffles posted...

So is this all just down to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at this point?

Arizona seems gettable at this point to me which would hypothetically would mean Harris could afford to lose Wisconsin.

PA at 66%, though Trump is only leading with 110,000+ votes. Still too early. Around the same with WI.

MI is close to...26%. WAY too early to say anything.

AZ feels like nothing changed because it's nearly 50% with Trump having a very small lead.

GA actually has Trump surpassing his last attempt by...240,000, but it's still at 90%.

VA is for Harris, though. I doubt half of 5 million people will jump ship to Trump.