Current Events > How would things be different if the confederates won the civil war?

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SHRlKE
06/07/23 9:05:07 AM
#1:


Do you think the US would have still gone on to become a major super power in the world or would we have ended up more like Russia?

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UnholyMudcrab
06/07/23 9:12:52 AM
#3:


There would have been a second war at a later date which the north would have won. The disparity between the industrial bases of the north and the south was just too great, and would only have gotten larger with time, especially if slavery was preserved as an institution in the south.

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Xatrion
06/07/23 9:13:33 AM
#4:


That's the gopper wet dream. Blacks still enslaved. Women treated as second class citizens. Christian version of sharia type laws enforced with death to dissenters.

Don't know if we'd be a superpower though. Probably not.

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tripleh213
06/07/23 9:15:25 AM
#5:


Xatrion posted...
That's the gopper wet dream. Blacks still enslaved. Women treated as second class citizens. Christian version of sharia type laws enforced with death to dissenters.

Don't know if we'd be a superpower though. Probably not.
Thats an interesting theory

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Euripides
06/07/23 9:16:06 AM
#6:


I don't know why people want to go down this "alternate history" path. Just be glad that the north won

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BunkerBoy
06/07/23 9:16:21 AM
#7:


Xatrion posted...
That's the gopper wet dream. Blacks still enslaved. Women treated as second class citizens. Christian version of sharia type laws enforced with death to dissenters.

Don't know if we'd be a superpower though. Probably not.
That's the definition of "Make America Great Again"
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DragonClaw01
06/07/23 10:28:29 AM
#8:


I feel it wouldn't have changed much. Slavery was already an anachronistic institution that was going away in most of the world, so I couldn't see it lasting too much longer in America and race relations were largely bungled post Civil war anyways by having a racist in the name of Andrew Johnson in charge of reconstruction. He was pretty much a confederate in everything, but name anyways, so not much different there. It would've left a black mark on the country though and would've poisoned race relations even more than they are now.

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andel
06/07/23 10:51:14 AM
#9:


the united states would have split into two different nations and the south would have been far behind in terms of technology/modernization/quality of life/personal rights and freedom. the north would have probably developed faster without the south as a weight around its neck. reunification may have eventually happened, if not the south would have turned into a third world type nation and the north would have continued advancing.

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ironman2009
06/07/23 10:52:28 AM
#10:


Way fewer Jackie Chan movies make it to the states

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TonyKojima
06/07/23 10:53:13 AM
#11:


The south should have been treated as a defeated nation.

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EbonTitanium
06/07/23 10:53:42 AM
#12:


Theres a movie about this. I think its called CSA.

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Questionmarktarius
06/07/23 10:58:25 AM
#13:


TonyKojima posted...
The south should have been treated as a defeated nation.
It was, until Andrew Johnson changed reconstruction to basically mean pretending the war never happened.
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pedro45
06/07/23 10:59:14 AM
#14:


It's hard to say. What would the immediate the result be of the confederates winning?
I'm no history buff, but i think we'd have two countries but IDK if the union would have merged with the confederates.
as others have said, it probably would have made the us more of a shit show and held them back.
maybe it would have shifted world powers and fascism wouldn't have been as radical, but more of a norm.
How many lives would have needed to be lost for the south to win?

Some people think the south was only fighting for states rights. Maybe some other super power would have risen, maybe nations of Africa would have risen and fought for the humans in America being used.
I guess I would hope, even if the confederates won, the World would have corrected it.

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TonyKojima
06/07/23 11:02:29 AM
#15:


Questionmarktarius posted...
It was, until Andrew Johnson changed reconstruction to basically mean pretending the war never happened.
So they weren't in the end. When I say defeated nation I mean conquered and stripped of statehood.

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SHRlKE
06/07/23 11:15:45 AM
#16:


Euripides posted...
I don't know why people want to go down this "alternate history" path. Just be glad that the north won

Just a thought experiment. You dont need to join in.

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Pogo_Marimo
06/07/23 11:27:28 AM
#17:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
There would have been a second war at a later date which the north would have won. The disparity between the industrial bases of the north and the south was just too great, and would only have gotten larger with time, especially if slavery was preserved as an institution in the south.
Probably this, just based on historical trends. Beyond that, who knows.

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Unsuprised_Pika
06/07/23 11:29:58 AM
#18:


The USA/Confederacy would likely never have become a Superpower. If it still did it likely would stagnate/collapse before long due to Northern/slave rebellions and poor leadership.

WW2 if it still happens would've been a far harder conflict for the Allies. Even before joining our material support was critical to the Britian and victory if achieved would likely not have been as total. Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan may survive(war is a stalemate or loss for the Axis but there is not the ability or will to push deep into their territory to topple the regimes) or even win the war. Those regimes may well still be around today.

If the Confederacy took over the North rather then there being 2 countries...its possible they JOIN the Axis and the world is utterly fucked.

If not the USA and Confederacy probably stagnate due to constant conflict and international wariness/shunning due to Slavery/Instability.

This is assuming a decisive overwhelming victory and not just a stalemate.

Otherwise...

"There would have been a second war at a later date which the north would have won. The disparity between the industrial bases of the north and the south was just too great, and would only have gotten larger with time, especially if slavery was preserved as an institution in the south."

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Zikten
06/07/23 11:46:26 AM
#19:


EbonTitanium posted...
Theres a movie about this. I think its called CSA.
There was also going to be an HBO show but people freaked out, and it got canceled before they even started filming
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Foppe
06/07/23 11:48:31 AM
#20:


There are so many different ways this could go.
Two unions would be born, but would the Confederates believe that it would be enough? I dont think that they would demand every state to join them, but we had a few Northern states that still had slaves. If anything, they might even join on their own choice.
Once you break an egg, more will follow. Would other states decide to leave USA over things they disliked? Would the Confederates support them and send troops if USA tried to take them back? They could have their own form of NATO against the North.
Slavery... it was already on a decline in the world, so it would probably change as well sooner or later. Unless they managed to kickstart it again? They would most likely fight against it (we won a war to be able to keep them!), but I think that the winds of change would happen in the end. Would their slave history create a redneck racism confederation, or would guilt make them change quicker and better than the civil rights movements in the USA (Im thinking something like how Germany went so anti-Nazi after WWII)? Would the North send spies that tried to start slave riots? Would the North be inspired to accept more slavery?
We would see at least some form of wishes of joining the United States and the Confederation under all these years. Would it happen? At what demands?
During the WWI and WWII, would the Confederation be on the Allied side or not? Would their conflict prevent any of them from fighting in Europe?
After WWII, if the Germany still lost, would they join the Soviet? Would we see another Cuba crisis?
Would modern political movements be about building a wall towards the Confederation and prevent them from "stealing our jobs"? Would the Confederate already have a wall to prevent slaves from escaping?
Etc etc.

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Goldice
06/07/23 11:56:47 AM
#21:


It would be disastrous.

First off, the south "winning" the Civil War would just mean they successfully fought a defensive war and the north backed off. However, the north had all the economic advantages. They could have easily choked out the south over the following years economically. Considering what actually happened (the souths trade partners found other ways to import goods), odds are this would have had a lot of success. Considering how much stronger the norths industrial economy was, it would have led to a long, drawn out bleed period of the south, either until they successfully shifted economic practices or another civil war.

So instead of it being wrapped up in 4-5 years and into reconstruction, it would have took much longer and considering what happened in the world at the turn of the 1900s would have put both countries (or a newly reunified country) on such a worse, weaker position to deal with those headwinds. Odds are that such a push back of either unification or remaining split would have meant that the US would not have been in the solid position it was at the end of WW2 when it gained the ability to drastically influence geopolitics and the beginning of Pax Americana.

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DementedDurian
06/07/23 11:57:03 AM
#22:


I...probably would be dead.

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Ivynn
06/07/23 12:03:10 PM
#23:


North America would probably look like South America. If the South won, it would legitimize secession, so I could see other secessionist-type movements happen and the US just letting it happen because of the trauma of the civil war. Maybe the former US could be a major regional power with its industrial base, but probably not a superpower. The Confederates would be a third-world theocracy if it continued with its trajectory. Slavery in the South would eventually end because it was an outdated institution even then, but it would have lasted longer and civil rights afterwards would be even more of a mess.


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Kradek
06/07/23 12:04:44 PM
#24:


Assuming we would have made it to the 1940s I assume they would have joined the Axis of Evil and perhaps attacked Canada & Mexico.

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Euripides
06/07/23 12:09:42 PM
#25:


Zikten posted...
There was also going to be an HBO show but people freaked out, and it got canceled before they even started filming

As it should have been. No one is interested in watching a show where 21st America has black slaves

It was being written by the Game of Thrones dudes (lol)

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Zikten
06/07/23 12:11:14 PM
#26:


Euripides posted...
As it should have been. No one is interested in watching a show where 21st America has black slaves

It was being written by the Game of Thrones dudes (lol)
The show was almost for sure going to villianize the government, and make the freedom fighters the heroes and protagonists
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Jabraham
06/07/23 12:12:04 PM
#27:


People would be openly flying the Confederate flag in the present day... maybe even bringing it into the Capitol. Oh wait...

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TonyKojima
06/07/23 12:14:41 PM
#28:


Zikten posted...
The show was almost for sure going to villianize the government, and make the freedom fighters the heroes and protagonists
But we can't portray the poor victimized south as evil.

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Zikten
06/07/23 12:15:27 PM
#29:


I'll add to my previous post that I don't see the difference between a CSA show on HBO, and that show Man in the High Castle, where America lost ww2 and got conquered by Japan and Germany

Why is a nazi America show ok but a Confederate show is horrific and has to be shut down?
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Ivynn
06/07/23 12:15:55 PM
#30:


Zikten posted...
There was also going to be an HBO show but people freaked out, and it got canceled before they even started filming

I think it being created by the Game of Thrones dudes and the shitting of the bed they did afterwards with the GoT finale turning most of the public against them may have more to do with that (same reason they lost their Star Wars gig). I actually don't recall any major outcry since it never got past the planning stages.

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DnDer
06/07/23 12:16:17 PM
#31:


Harry Turtledove has covered this topic at length, beginning with his exploration of it in Guns of the South.

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DnDer
06/07/23 12:22:07 PM
#32:


Zikten posted...
I'll add to my previous post that I don't see the difference between a CSA show on HBO, and that show Man in the High Castle, where America lost ww2 and got conquered by Japan and Germany

Why is a nazi America show ok but a Confederate show is horrific and has to be shut down?

When High Castle was originally written, and then filmed, we were at a place as a country where we believed the premise entirely too absurd to be anything but safe, allegorical fiction. After all, a good warning against fascism is part of what sci-fi does best, but we'd never let real Nazis win.

But the Confederacy? Those dudes are like a raw and open wound on the American psyche. They still exist and are very real. Some of them who pointed police dogs at black people then have grandchildren who'd recognize them in those pictures today.

It was probably way too real and too close to home to think of them good ole boys coming to power, because they've been working on it for 50 years already (and then some) to bring it back.

I can see why one was easier to green light than the other. Back then. I don't know how quick "the Nazis won" would be able to get past the script slush pile these days...

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SHRlKE
06/07/23 12:25:55 PM
#33:


Not sure I buy that. After 9/11 we still had films about terrorists etc.

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uwnim
06/07/23 12:56:32 PM
#34:


Forget ww2, ww1 would have been different. With the US, Confederacy and Mexico all in North America, Germany has an easier time trying to start up a war there. France and Britain get less support. US troops dont get sent over near the end.
Germany still doesnt win of course, but they dont suffer a crushing defeat and their territorial losses are minimal. Theyd still lose Alsace-Lorraine and maybe some other stuff in the west, but that would be about it. Wouldnt be demilitarized and wouldnt be forbidden from merging with Austria.

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Foppe
06/07/23 1:05:51 PM
#35:


uwnim posted...
Forget ww2, ww1 would have been different. With the US, Confederacy and Mexico all in North America, Germany has an easier time trying to start up a war there. France and Britain get less support. US troops dont get sent over near the end.
Germany still doesnt win of course, but they dont suffer a crushing defeat and their territorial losses are minimal. Theyd still lose Alsace-Lorraine and maybe some other stuff in the west, but that would be about it. Wouldnt be demilitarized and wouldnt be forbidden from merging with Austria.
So no WWII, no Holocaust and no Israel?

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uwnim
06/07/23 2:40:39 PM
#36:


Foppe posted...
So no WWII, no Holocaust and no Israel?
Thered still be another war in Europe eventually. A Germany-Soviet Union war would have happened regardless. But the details would have been pretty different.

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Pogo_Marimo
06/07/23 5:14:57 PM
#37:


uwnim posted...
Forget ww2, ww1 would have been different. With the US, Confederacy and Mexico all in North America, Germany has an easier time trying to start up a war there. France and Britain get less support. US troops dont get sent over near the end.
Germany still doesnt win of course, but they dont suffer a crushing defeat and their territorial losses are minimal. Theyd still lose Alsace-Lorraine and maybe some other stuff in the west, but that would be about it. Wouldnt be demilitarized and wouldnt be forbidden from merging with Austria.
I don't know why you would even assume WWI would still happen in vaguely the same way. The entire political nature of the Western Hemisphere is flipped on its head as the Monroe doctrine is explicitly undermined by the existence of a signficant military power in contention with the U.S. Sudddnly South America might be a half century long battlefield instead where colonial conflicts breed alliances and greivances over decades of warfare and political conflict. It's a fairly blatantly sophmoric exercise to apply such deterministic concepts to what is a staggering reversal of geopolitics.

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uwnim
06/07/23 10:24:31 PM
#38:


Pogo_Marimo posted...
I don't know why you would even assume WWI would still happen in vaguely the same way. The entire political nature of the Western Hemisphere is flipped on its head as the Monroe doctrine is explicitly undermined by the existence of a signficant military power in contention with the U.S. Sudddnly South America might be a half century long battlefield instead where colonial conflicts breed alliances and greivances over decades of warfare and political conflict. It's a fairly blatantly sophmoric exercise to apply such deterministic concepts to what is a staggering reversal of geopolitics.
Some things were already in motion. Prussia's war with France was just a few years away. Germany forming and surpassing France in power isn't changing due to differences in the US Civil War. I'd expect Europe to still scramble over Africa like they did in real life and I don't see any serious attempts at recolonizing the Americas happening.

The European country with the most potential changes is Spain though. If a country did try to recolonize the Americas, this is the one that would try. Though that would cause a lot of issues with the British Empire. Plus who knows if the Spanish American War would even happen.


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Cheater87
06/07/23 10:29:43 PM
#39:


Harry Turtledove wrote the Southern Victory series which is 11 books long.

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Letsago
06/07/23 10:42:45 PM
#40:


Cheater87 posted...
Harry Turtledove wrote the Southern Victory series which is 11 books long.
Yep. Basically the CSA aligns with the British. The Union ends up siding with Germany (which is helped by immigration of Germans to the Midwest). The Central Powers win WW1.

That portion of the story is pretty interesting, but after that it just becomes a copy-paste of WW2 with Not!Hitler taking control in the CSA. Everything from that point is just WW2 but in North America.

On the bright side though, the ending is pretty intriguing. The US controls not just the South, but Canada as well, which they won from the British in WW1. They are one of the foremost powers, but the US has become almost a quasi-military state. How will they deal with their conquered and re-conquered territories? And what about the German Empire, which still exists after WW2? The timeline ends in a way that leaves me wondering what will happen next.

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bfslick50
06/07/23 10:46:45 PM
#41:


The south would've had areas industrialize and used slave labor to run the factories. Slavery for agriculture may have been on it's way out, but slavery as an institution wasn't going to fade away.

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